A re-evaluation of the Earth’s surface temperature response to radiative forcing

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: All the time-series data used in this analysis is freely available for research: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html; www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/; www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/AMO.html. The models in this paper have been inferred statistically from the data record available when the present study was initiated and they can change over time. The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authorsThere is much current debate about the way in which the earth's climate and temperature are responding to anthropogenic and natural forcing. In this paper we re-assess the current evidence at the globally averaged level by adopting a generic 'data-based mechanistic' modelling strategy that incorporates statistically efficient parameter estimation. This identifies a low order, differential equation model that explains how the global average surface temperature variation responds to the influences of total radiative forcing (TRF). The model response includes a novel, stochastic oscillatory component with a period of about 55 years (range 51.6–60 years) that appears to be associated with heat energy interchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. These 'quasi-cycle' oscillations, which account for the observed pauses in global temperature increase around 1880, 1940 and 2001, appear to be related to ocean dynamic responses, particularly the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The model explains 90% of the variance in the global average surface temperature anomaly and yields estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) (2.29 compfnC with 5%–95% range 2.11 compfnC to 2.49 compfnC) and the transient climate response (TCR) (1.56 compfnC with 5%–95% range 1.43 compfnC to 1.68 compfnC), both of which are smaller than most previous estimates. When a high level of uncertainty in the TRF is taken into account, the ECS and TCR estimates are unchanged but the ranges are increased to 1.43 compfnC to 3.14 compfnC and 0.99 compfnC to 2.16 compfnC, respectively.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Newton Funded China Services Partnership (CSSP

Comparing two approaches for parsimonious vegetation modelling in semiarid regions using satellite data

[EN] Large portions of Earth's terrestrial surface are arid or semiarid. As in these regions, the hydrological cycle and the vegetation dynamics are tightly interconnected, a coupled modelling of these two systems is needed to fully reproduce the ecosystem behaviour. In this paper, the performance of two parsimonious dynamic vegetation models, suitable for the inclusion in operational ecohydrological models and based on well-established but different approaches, is compared in a semiarid Aleppo Pine region. The first model [water use efficiency (WUE) model] links growth to transpiration through WUE; the second model [light use efficiency (LUE) model] simulates biomass increase in relation to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and LUE. Furthermore, an analysis of the information contained in MODIS products is presented to indicate the best vegetation indices to be used as observational verification for the models. Enhanced Vegetation Index is reported in literature to be highly correlated with leaf area index, so it is compared with modelled LAI(mod) (rWUE model = 0.45; rLUE model = 0.57). In contrast, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index appears highly linked to soil moisture, through the control exerted by this variable on chlorophyll production, and is therefore used to analyze LAI*(mod), models' output corrected by plant water stress (rWUE model = 0.62; rLUE model = 0.59). Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer Leaf Area Index and evapotranspiration are found to be unrealistic in the studied area. The performance of both models in this semiarid region is found to be reasonable. However, the LUE model presents the advantages of a better performance, the possibility to be used in a wider range of climates and to have been extensively tested in literature. (C) Copyright 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.The research leading to these results has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects FLOOD-MED (ref. CGL2008-06474-C02-02), SCARCE-CONSOLIDER (ref. CSD2009-00065) and ECO-TETIS (ref. CGL2011-28776-C02-01), and from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. The MODIS data were obtained through the online Data Pool at the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre (LP DAAC), USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Centre, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/get_data). The meteorological data were provided by the Spanish National Weather Agency (AEMET). The authors thank Antonio Del Campo Garcia and Maria Gonzalez Sanchis at the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia for their support and valuable comments.Pasquato, M.; Medici, C.; Friend, A.; Francés, F. (2015). Comparing two approaches for parsimonious vegetation modelling in semiarid regions using satellite data. Ecohydrology. 8(6):1024-1036. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1559S102410368

A dusty pinwheel nebula around the massive star WR 104

Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are luminous massive blue stars thought to be immediate precursors to the supernova terminating their brief lives. The existence of dust shells around such stars has been enigmatic since their discovery some 30 years ago; the intense radiation field from the star should be inimical to dust survival. Although dust-creation models, including those involving interacting stellar winds from a companion star, have been put forward, high-resolution observations are required to understand this phenomena. Here we present resolved images of the dust outflow around Wolf-Rayet WR 104, obtained with novel imaging techniques, revealing detail on scales corresponding to about 40 AU at the star. Our maps show that the dust forms a spatially confined stream following precisely a linear (or Archimedian) spiral trajectory. Images taken at two separate epochs show a clear rotation with a period of 220 +/- 30 days. Taken together, these findings prove that a binary star is responsible for the creation of the circumstellar dust, while the spiral plume makes WR 104 the prototype of a new class of circumstellar nebulae unique to interacting wind systems.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, Appearing in Nature (1999 April 08

Simulational study of anomalous tracer diffusion in hydrogels

In this article, we analyze different factors that affect the diffusion behavior of small tracer particles (as they are used e.g.in fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS)) in the polymer network of a hydrogel and perform simulations of various simplified models. We observe, that under certain circumstances the attraction of a tracer particle to the polymer network strands might cause subdiffusive behavior on intermediate time scales. In theory, this behavior could be employed to examine the network structure and swelling behavior of weakly crosslinked hydrogels with the help of FCS.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure

PedGenie: meta genetic association testing in mixed family and case-control designs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background-</p> <p>PedGenie software, introduced in 2006, includes genetic association testing of cases and controls that may be independent or related (nuclear families or extended pedigrees) or mixtures thereof using Monte Carlo significance testing. Our aim is to demonstrate that PedGenie, a unique and flexible analysis tool freely available in Genie 2.4 software, is significantly enhanced by incorporating meta statistics for detecting genetic association with disease using data across multiple study groups.</p> <p>Methods-</p> <p>Meta statistics (chi-squared tests, odds ratios, and confidence intervals) were calculated using formal Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel techniques. Simulated data from unrelated individuals and individuals in families were used to illustrate meta tests and their empirically-derived p-values and confidence intervals are accurate, precise, and for independent designs match those provided by standard statistical software.</p> <p>Results-</p> <p>PedGenie yields accurate Monte Carlo p-values for meta analysis of data across multiple studies, based on validation testing using pedigree, nuclear family, and case-control data simulated under both the null and alternative hypotheses of a genotype-phenotype association.</p> <p>Conclusion-</p> <p>PedGenie allows valid combined analysis of data from mixtures of pedigree-based and case-control resources. Added meta capabilities provide new avenues for association analysis, including pedigree resources from large consortia and multi-center studies.</p

IL-22 mediates goblet cell hyperplasia and worm expulsion in intestinal helminth infection.

Type 2 immune responses are essential in protection against intestinal helminth infections. In this study we show that IL-22, a cytokine important in defence against bacterial infections in the intestinal tract, is also a critical mediator of anti-helminth immunity. After infection with Nippostrongylus brasiliensis, a rodent hookworm, IL-22-deficient mice showed impaired worm expulsion despite normal levels of type 2 cytokine production. The impaired worm expulsion correlated with reduced goblet cell hyperplasia and reduced expression of goblet cell markers. We further confirmed our findings in a second nematode model, the murine whipworm Trichuris muris. T.muris infected IL-22-deficient mice had a similar phenotype to that seen in N.brasiliensis infection, with impaired worm expulsion and reduced goblet cell hyperplasia. Ex vivo and in vitro analysis demonstrated that IL-22 is able to directly induce the expression of several goblet cell markers, including mucins. Taken together, our findings reveal that IL-22 plays an important role in goblet cell activation, and thus, a key role in anti-helminth immunity

A model for transition of 5 '-nuclease domain of DNA polymerase I from inert to active modes

Bacteria contain DNA polymerase I (PolI), a single polypeptide chain consisting of similar to 930 residues, possessing DNA-dependent DNA polymerase, 3'-5' proofreading and 5'-3' exonuclease (also known as flap endonuclease) activities. PolI is particularly important in the processing of Okazaki fragments generated during lagging strand replication and must ultimately produce a double-stranded substrate with a nick suitable for DNA ligase to seal. PolI's activities must be highly coordinated both temporally and spatially otherwise uncontrolled 5'-nuclease activity could attack a nick and produce extended gaps leading to potentially lethal double-strand breaks. To investigate the mechanism of how PolI efficiently produces these nicks, we present theoretical studies on the dynamics of two possible scenarios or models. In one the flap DNA substrate can transit from the polymerase active site to the 5'-nuclease active site, with the relative position of the two active sites being kept fixed; while the other is that the 5'-nuclease domain can transit from the inactive mode, with the 5'-nuclease active site distant from the cleavage site on the DNA substrate, to the active mode, where the active site and substrate cleavage site are juxtaposed. The theoretical results based on the former scenario are inconsistent with the available experimental data that indicated that the majority of 5'-nucleolytic processing events are carried out by the same PolI molecule that has just extended the upstream primer terminus. By contrast, the theoretical results on the latter model, which is constructed based on available structural studies, are consistent with the experimental data. We thus conclude that the latter model rather than the former one is reasonable to describe the cooperation of the PolI's polymerase and 5'-3' exonuclease activities. Moreover, predicted results for the latter model are presented

Selection for Replicases in Protocells

PMCID: PMC3649988This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited