RAMESES publication standards: realist syntheses

PMCID: PMC3558331This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Developing a model to estimate the potential impact of municipal investment on city health

This article summarizes a process which exemplifies the potential impact of municipal investment on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in city populations. We report on Developing an evidence-based approach to city public health planning and investment in Europe (DECiPHEr), a project part funded by the European Union. It had twin objectives: first, to develop and validate a vocational educational training package for policy makers and political decision takers; second, to use this opportunity to iterate a robust and user-friendly investment tool for maximizing the public health impact of 'mainstream' municipal policies, programs and investments. There were seven stages in the development process shared by an academic team from Sheffield Hallam University and partners from four cities drawn from the WHO European Healthy Cities Network. There were five iterations of the model resulting from this process. The initial focus was CVD as the biggest cause of death and disability in Europe. Our original prototype 'cost offset' model was confined to proximal determinants of CVD, utilizing modified 'Framingham' equations to estimate the impact of population level cardiovascular risk factor reduction on future demand for acute hospital admissions. The DECiPHEr iterations first extended the scope of the model to distal determinants and then focused progressively on practical interventions. Six key domains of local influence on population health were introduced into the model by the development process: education, housing, environment, public health, economy and security. Deploying a realist synthesis methodology, the model then connected distal with proximal determinants of CVD. Existing scientific evidence and cities' experiential knowledge were 'plugged-in' or 'triangulated' to elaborate the causal pathways from domain interventions to public health impacts. A key product is an enhanced version of the cost offset model, named Sheffield Health Effectiveness Framework Tool, incorporating both proximal and distal determinants in estimating the cost benefits of domain interventions. A key message is that the insights of the policy community are essential in developing and then utilising such a predictive tool

Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed

Scoping studies: towards a methodological framework

This paper focuses on scoping studies, an approach to reviewing the literature which to date has received little attention in the research methods literature. We distinguish between different types of scoping studies and indicate where these stand in relation to full systematic reviews. We outline a framework for conducting a scoping study based on our recent experiences of reviewing the literature on services for carers for people with mental health problems. Where appropriate, our approach to scoping the field is contrasted with the procedures followed in systematic reviews. We emphasize how including a consultation exercise in this sort of study may enhance the results, making them more useful to policy makers, practitioners and service users. Finally, we consider the advantages and limitations of the approach and suggest that a wider debate is called for about the role of the scoping study in relation to other types of literature reviews

Evaluating the impact of public housing after prison for a sex offence

This article evaluates the impact of housing assistance on the post-release pathways of people convicted of sex offences, in terms of a range of criminal justice outcomes and associated costs. Using linked administrative data from New South Wales government agencies, it compares outcomes and costs for two groups of formerly incarcerated sex offenders–one group who received public housing tenancies at some stage after their release, the other who only received private rental assistance. We find the public housing group had better criminal justice outcomes (e.g. fewer police incidents, court appearances, proven offences, days in custody and days on community-based orders) than the non-public housing group, achieved mostly at less cost to governments. The evidence, likely applicable in other jurisdictions with similar housing systems, strongly supports the increased provision of social housing to this group of ex-prisoners and, we hope, helps disarm the controversy that affects this area of policy in Australia and internationally

An 8-Year, High-Resolution Reanalysis of Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratios Based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS Retrievals

The NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) reanalysis blends OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2) and GOSAT-ACOS (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite-Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space) retrievals (top) with GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model predictions (bottom) to estimate the full 3D (three-dimensional) state of CO2 every 3 hours (middle). This poster describes monthly atmospheric growth rates derived from the reanalysis and an application to aircraft data with the potential to aid bias correction

Introducing EMMIE: An evidence rating scale to encourage mixed-method crime prevention synthesis reviews

Objectives This short report describes the need for, and the development of, a coding system to distil the quality and coverage of systematic reviews of the evidence relating to crime prevention interventions. The starting point for the coding system concerns the evidence needs of policymakers and practitioners. Methods The coding scheme (EMMIE) proposed builds on previous scales that have been developed to assess the probity, coverage and utility of evidence both in health and criminal justice. It also draws on the principles of realist synthesis and review. Results The proposed EMMIE scale identifies five dimensions to which systematic reviews intended to inform crime prevention should speak. These are the Effect of intervention, the identification of the causal Mechanism(s) through which interventions are intended to work, the factors that Moderate their impact, the articulation of practical Implementation issues, and the Economic costs of intervention

Enterprise Education Competitions: A Theoretically Flawed Intervention?

The demand for including enterprise in the education system, at all levels and for all pupils is now a global phenomenon. Within this context, the use of competitions and competitive learning activities is presented as a popular and effective vehicle for learning. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate how a realist method of enquiry – which utilises theory as the unit of analysis – can shed new light on the assumed and unintended outcomes of enterprise education competitions. The case developed here is that there are inherent flaws in assuming that competitions will ‘work’ in the ways set out in policy and guidance. Some of the most prevalent stated outcomes – that competitions will motivate and reward young people, that they will enable the development of entrepreneurial skills, and that learners will be inspired by their peers – are challenged by theory from psychology and education. The issue at stake is that the expansion of enterprise education policy into primary and secondary education increases the likelihood that more learners will be sheep dipped in competitions, and competitive activities, without a clear recognition of the potential unintended effects. In this chapter, we employ a realist-informed approach to critically evaluate the theoretical basis that underpins the use of competitions and competitive learning activities in school-based enterprise education. We believe that our findings and subsequent recommendations will provide those who promote and practice the use of competitions with a richer, more sophisticated picture of the potential flaws within such activities.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio