135 research outputs found

    The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

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    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

    A new approach to deploy a self-adaptive distributed firewall

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    Distributed firewall systems emerged with the proposal of protecting individual hosts against attacks originating from inside the network. In these systems, firewall rules are centrally created, then distributed and enforced on all servers that compose the firewall, restricting which services will be available. However, this approach lacks protection against software vulnerabilities that can make network services vulnerable to attacks, since firewalls usually do not scan application protocols. In this sense, from the discovery of any vulnerability until the publication and application of patches there is an exposure window that should be reduced. In this context, this article presents Self-Adaptive Distributed Firewall (SADF). Our approach is based on monitoring hosts and using a vulnerability assessment system to detect vulnerable services, integrated with components capable of deciding and applying firewall rules on affected hosts. In this way, SADF can respond to vulnerabilities discovered in these hosts, helping to mitigate the risk of exploiting the vulnerability. Our system was evaluated in the context of a simulated network environment, where the results achieved demonstrate its viability

    Tissue Microenvironments Define and Get Reinforced by Macrophage Phenotypes in Homeostasis or during Inflammation, Repair and Fibrosis

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    Current macrophage phenotype classifications are based on distinct in vitro culture conditions that do not adequately mirror complex tissue environments. In vivo monocyte progenitors populate all tissues for immune surveillance which supports the maintenance of homeostasis as well as regaining homeostasis after injury. Here we propose to classify macrophage phenotypes according to prototypical tissue environments, e.g. as they occur during homeostasis as well as during the different phases of (dermal) wound healing. In tissue necrosis and/or infection, damage- and/or pathogen-associated molecular patterns induce proinflammatory macrophages by Toll-like receptors or inflammasomes. Such classically activated macrophages contribute to further tissue inflammation and damage. Apoptotic cells and antiinflammatory cytokines dominate in postinflammatory tissues which induce macrophages to produce more antiinflammatory mediators. Similarly, tumor-associated macrophages also confer immunosuppression in tumor stroma. Insufficient parenchymal healing despite abundant growth factors pushes macrophages to gain a profibrotic phenotype and promote fibrocyte recruitment which both enforce tissue scarring. Ischemic scars are largely devoid of cytokines and growth factors so that fibrolytic macrophages that predominantly secrete proteases digest the excess extracellular matrix. Together, macrophages stabilize their surrounding tissue microenvironments by adapting different phenotypes as feed-forward mechanisms to maintain tissue homeostasis or regain it following injury. Furthermore, macrophage heterogeneity in healthy or injured tissues mirrors spatial and temporal differences in microenvironments during the various stages of tissue injury and repair. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

    The Role of Neighborhood Environment in Promoting Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease among Young Adults: Data from Middle to High Income Population in an Asian Megacity

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    Background: Modifiable risk factors of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have their triggers in the neighborhood environments of communities. Studying the environmental triggers for CVD risk factors is important to understand the situation in a broader perspective. Young adults are influenced the most by the environment profile around them hence it is important to study this subset of the population.Methods: This was a descriptive study conducted using the EPOCH research tool designed by the authors of the PURE study. The study population consisted of young adults aged 18-25 in two areas of Karachi. The study setting was busy shopping malls frequented by young adults in the particular community being studied.Results: Our total sample size was 120 individuals, who consented to be interviewed by our interviewers. Less than 50% of the population recognized some form of restriction regarding smoking in their communities. The largest contributor to tobacco advertising was actors smoking in movies and TV shows with 89% responses from both communities. Only 11.9% of the individuals disapproved of smoking cigarettes among men with wide acceptance of \u27sheesha\u27 across all age groups. Advertising for smoking and junk food was more frequent as compared to smoking cessation, healthy diet and exercise in both the areas. Unhealthy food items were more easily available in contrast to healthier options. The cost of healthy snack food options including vegetables and fruits was higher than sugary drinks and foods.CONCLUSION: This assessment showed that both communities were exposed to environments that promote risk factors for cardiovascular diseases

    Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BACKGROUND: Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Exploring UK medical school differences: the MedDifs study of selection, teaching, student and F1 perceptions, postgraduate outcomes and fitness to practise

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    BACKGROUND: Medical schools differ, particularly in their teaching, but it is unclear whether such differences matter, although influential claims are often made. The Medical School Differences (MedDifs) study brings together a wide range of measures of UK medical schools, including postgraduate performance, fitness to practise issues, specialty choice, preparedness, satisfaction, teaching styles, entry criteria and institutional factors. METHOD: Aggregated data were collected for 50 measures across 29 UK medical schools. Data include institutional history (e.g. rate of production of hospital and GP specialists in the past), curricular influences (e.g. PBL schools, spend per student, staff-student ratio), selection measures (e.g. entry grades), teaching and assessment (e.g. traditional vs PBL, specialty teaching, self-regulated learning), student satisfaction, Foundation selection scores, Foundation satisfaction, postgraduate examination performance and fitness to practise (postgraduate progression, GMC sanctions). Six specialties (General Practice, Psychiatry, Anaesthetics, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Internal Medicine, Surgery) were examined in more detail. RESULTS: Medical school differences are stable across time (median alpha = 0.835). The 50 measures were highly correlated, 395 (32.2%) of 1225 correlations being significant with p < 0.05, and 201 (16.4%) reached a Tukey-adjusted criterion of p < 0.0025. Problem-based learning (PBL) schools differ on many measures, including lower performance on postgraduate assessments. While these are in part explained by lower entry grades, a surprising finding is that schools such as PBL schools which reported greater student satisfaction with feedback also showed lower performance at postgraduate examinations. More medical school teaching of psychiatry, surgery and anaesthetics did not result in more specialist trainees. Schools that taught more general practice did have more graduates entering GP training, but those graduates performed less well in MRCGP examinations, the negative correlation resulting from numbers of GP trainees and exam outcomes being affected both by non-traditional teaching and by greater historical production of GPs. Postgraduate exam outcomes were also higher in schools with more self-regulated learning, but lower in larger medical schools. A path model for 29 measures found a complex causal nexus, most measures causing or being caused by other measures. Postgraduate exam performance was influenced by earlier attainment, at entry to Foundation and entry to medical school (the so-called academic backbone), and by self-regulated learning. Foundation measures of satisfaction, including preparedness, had no subsequent influence on outcomes. Fitness to practise issues were more frequent in schools producing more male graduates and more GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Medical schools differ in large numbers of ways that are causally interconnected. Differences between schools in postgraduate examination performance, training problems and GMC sanctions have important implications for the quality of patient care and patient safety
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