Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

The Science of Sungrazers, Sunskirters, and Other Near-Sun Comets

This review addresses our current understanding of comets that venture close to the Sun, and are hence exposed to much more extreme conditions than comets that are typically studied from Earth. The extreme solar heating and plasma environments that these objects encounter change many aspects of their behaviour, thus yielding valuable information on both the comets themselves that complements other data we have on primitive solar system bodies, as well as on the near-solar environment which they traverse. We propose clear definitions for these comets: We use the term near-Sun comets to encompass all objects that pass sunward of the perihelion distance of planet Mercury (0.307 AU). Sunskirters are defined as objects that pass within 33 solar radii of the Sun’s centre, equal to half of Mercury’s perihelion distance, and the commonly-used phrase sungrazers to be objects that reach perihelion within 3.45 solar radii, i.e. the fluid Roche limit. Finally, comets with orbits that intersect the solar photosphere are termed sundivers. We summarize past studies of these objects, as well as the instruments and facilities used to study them, including space-based platforms that have led to a recent revolution in the quantity and quality of relevant observations. Relevant comet populations are described, including the Kreutz, Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups, near-Sun asteroids, and a brief discussion of their origins. The importance of light curves and the clues they provide on cometary composition are emphasized, together with what information has been gleaned about nucleus parameters, including the sizes and masses of objects and their families, and their tensile strengths. The physical processes occurring at these objects are considered in some detail, including the disruption of nuclei, sublimation, and ionisation, and we consider the mass, momentum, and energy loss of comets in the corona and those that venture to lower altitudes. The different components of comae and tails are described, including dust, neutral and ionised gases, their chemical reactions, and their contributions to the near-Sun environment. Comet-solar wind interactions are discussed, including the use of comets as probes of solar wind and coronal conditions in their vicinities. We address the relevance of work on comets near the Sun to similar objects orbiting other stars, and conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field and the planned ground- and space-based facilities that will allow us to address those science topics

Molecular Features of Cancers Exhibiting Exceptional Responses to Treatment

A small fraction of cancer patients with advanced disease survive significantly longer than patients with clinically comparable tumors. Molecular mechanisms for exceptional responses to therapy have been identified by genomic analysis of tumor biopsies from individual patients. Here, we analyzed tumor biopsies from an unbiased cohort of 111 exceptional responder patients using multiple platforms to profile genetic and epigenetic aberrations as well as the tumor microenvironment. Integrative analysis uncovered plausible mechanisms for the therapeutic response in nearly a quarter of the patients. The mechanisms were assigned to four broad categories—DNA damage response, intracellular signaling, immune engagement, and genetic alterations characteristic of favorable prognosis—with many tumors falling into multiple categories. These analyses revealed synthetic lethal relationships that may be exploited therapeutically and rare genetic lesions that favor therapeutic success, while also providing a wealth of testable hypotheses regarding oncogenic mechanisms that may influence the response to cancer therapy. Profiling multi-platform genomics of 110 cancer patients with an exceptional therapeutic response, Wheeler et al. identify putative molecular mechanisms explaining this survival phenotype in ∼23% of cases. Therapeutic success is related to rare molecular features of responding tumors, exploiting synthetic lethality and oncogene addiction

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome

National Seismic Stations transducers and filters

The National Seismic Stations (NSS) instruments are being developed for seismic monitoring of regional and teleseismic events. They consist of two 3-component, broadband, borehole seismometers: the KS-36000 and the S-700, which is the backup for the KS-36000. Output is divided into frequency bands to reduce data loss due to saturation. Complete block diagrams of the KS-36000 and S-700 NSS seismometers and filters are presented. Both open-loop and closed-loop steady-state amplitude and phase curves are given. Without band-pass filters (but with shaping filters) the KS-36000 has a flat (i.e., between the -3dB points) velocity sensitivity from 0.03 to 23 Hz. With its shaping filters, the S-700 is flat from 0.2 to 40 Hz. The structure of the three band-pass filters (LP, MP, and SP) is superimposed on these velocity sensitivities. Passbands of the resulting overall velocity sensitivity for the KS-36000 are as follows: LP band = 0.01-0.05 Hz, MP band = 0.02-1.3 Hz, and SP band = 1-10 Hz. Step-function responses and phase and group delays are given for each of the bands. The MP-band step response is oscillatory due to its sharp, high-frequency cutoff, but an MP-band filter with a less abrupt cutoff eliminates the oscillation. To generate typical NSS output seismograms, velocity inputs from four representative seismic events were used: an underground nuclear test (..delta.. approx. = 3.6/sup 0/), a regional earthquake (..delta.. approx. = 20/sup 0/), a local earthquake (..delta.. approx. = 1.5/sup 0/), and a teleseismic earthquake (..delta.. approx. = 123/sup 0/). The velocity inputs for these events were obtained from the LLNL digital seismic network (DSS) around the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismograms resulting from each of the bands were satisfactory, although the low-frequency corner of the MP band should be increased in frequency to 0.08 Hz

Evaluation and design of a large spacing loop-loop electromagnetic tool

This paper investigates the potential use of a large spacing loop-loop electromagnetic logging tool to detect resistivity anomalies as far as 25 meters away from the borehole wall. A three-dimensional whole space electromagnetic modelling code was used to evaluate the response of such a tool to various transmitter and receiver loop orientations, operating frequencies, loop spacings, resistivity contrasts, anomaly sizes and anomaly distances. Anomalies were modeled as finite extent sheets of various thicknesses which terminated before intersecting the borehole wall. It was found that both coplanar and coaxial loop orientations provide strong anomaly response, but the coaxial loop orientation has superior depth penetration and is a less complex tool to design and build. For such a coaxial tool, anomalies could be detected as far from the borehole wall as half the loop spacing. For rock resistivities on the order of 100 ohm-m, contrasts greater than 2:1 and loop spacings of 75 meters the optimal operating frequency is shown to be 10 kHz. At these loop spacings, anomalies must be thicker 10 meters to be detected. It is further shown that for coaxial loops the nature of the response curves allows one to estimate the distance of an anomaly from the borehole wall although no angular location is possible. A coaxial loop-loop electromagnetic tool design that is currently being built is presented. This tool provides for a downhole power supply to a transmitter loop with a magnetic moment between 100 and 1000 A/m/sup 2/ that is electrically isolated via a fiber optic link from the variably spaced receiver located above. Signal detection is provided by a high sensitivity lock-in amplifier. The errors are conservatively estimated for this design at 5%. Thus anomalies resulting in a secondary field less than 5% of the primary transmitted field are deemed undetactable. 11 figs