Network approaches for formalizing conceptual models in ecosystem-based management

Funding Intermodel comparisons were supported through funding from the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program. P.S. McDonald’s involvement was funded in part by a grant from Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award number NA14OAR4170078. Funding for RPW was supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)/Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Graduate Fellowship via federal award NA14OAR4170077. Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge and thank the participants of the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program conceptual network modelling workshop at Baton Rouge, LA in July 2018. The discussions at this meeting formed some of the basis for the ideas presented in this manuscript. We also thank J. Moss and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier manuscript drafts. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. This is NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program contribution number 2021_3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Fish Bulletin 180. California Coastal Salmonid Population Monitoring: Strategy, Design, and Methods

California’s salmon and steelhead populations have experienced marked declines leading to listing of almost all of California’s anadromous salmonids under the California Endangered Species Act (CESA) and Federal Endan-gered Species Act (ESA). Both CESA and ESA listings require recovery plans that call for monitoring to provide some measure of progress toward recovery. In addition, there are related monitoring needs for other management activi-ties such as hatchery operations and fisheries management

Vignette 19: Invasive European Green Crab

European green crab pose documented threats to cultured and wild shellfish, eelgrass, and shoreline habitats and ecosystems. Because they can prey on juvenile crabs and shellfish, dense populations of EGC in the Salish Sea region could put fisheries and aquaculture resources in peril. After Fisheries and Oceans Canada researchers reported an established EGC population in Sooke Basin, BC in 2012, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) worked with Washington Sea Grant (WSG) to secure Puget Sound Marine and Nearshore Grant Program funding and establish a volunteer-based early detection and monitoring program. WSG launched Crab Team in 2015 with seven pilot sites. The program expanded to 26 sites the following year and has monitored more than 50 sites each year since. Concurrent with early detection monitoring, a team led by WDFW developed the Salish Sea Transboundary Action Plan for Invasive European Green Crab, providing a foundation for prevention, early detection, rapid response, research, and coordinated management throughout the Salish Sea

The Drosophila DmGluRA is required for social interaction and memory

Metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluRs) have well-established roles in cognition and social behavior in mammals. Whether or not these roles have been conserved throughout evolution from invertebrate species is less clear. Mammals have eight mGluRs whereas Drosophila has a single DmGluRA, which has both Gi and Gq coupled signaling activity. We have utilized Drosophila to examine the role of DmGluRA in social behavior and various phases of memory. We have found that flies that are homozygous or heterozygous for loss of function mutations of DmGluRA have impaired social behavior in male Drosophila. Futhermore, flies that are heterozygous for loss of function mutations of DmGluRA have impaired learning during training, immediate-recall memory, short-term memory, and long-term memory as young adults. This work demonstrates a role for mGluR activity in both social behavior and memory in Drosophila

Injury in starting and replacement players from five professional men’s rugby unions

Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare the incidence, severity, and burden of injury in starting and replacement players from professional men’s teams of five rugby unions. Methods: Match injuries of greater than 24 h time-loss (including data on the severity, match quarter, event, body region) and player minutes of match exposure data were collated for all starting and replacement players in the men’s English Premiership, Welsh Pro14 (both 2016/17–2018/19 seasons), and Australian, New Zealand, and South African Super Rugby (all 2016–2018 seasons) teams. Injury incidences and mean injury burden (incidence × days missed) were calculated, and rate ratios (RRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were used to compare injury incidence and burden between starting (reference group) and replacement players. Results: Overall injury incidence was not different between starters and replacements for all injuries (RR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.88–1.10), nor for concussions (RR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.66–1.11). Mean injury burden was higher for replacement players (RR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.17–1.46). Replacement injury incidence was lower than the starters in the third (RR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.51–0.92) and fourth (RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.67–0.92) match quarters. Injury incidence was not different between starters and replacements for any match event or body region, but compared with starters, replacements’ injury burden was higher in lower limbs (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05–1.46) and in the tackled player (RR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.01–1.66). Conclusion: This study demonstrated a lower injury incidence in replacement players compared with starters in the second half of matches, with a higher injury burden for replacement players due to higher mean injury severity

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10–30% to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with siteto regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model’s estimate of aerenchyma area, which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH4 predictions and sitelevel observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH4 cycle are from the wetland extent, coldseason CH4 production and CH4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in highlatitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements

Prospective multicenter assessment of patient preferences for properties of gadolinium-based contrast media and their potential socioeconomic impact in a screening breast MRI setting

Objective: It is unknown how patients prioritize gadolinium-based contrast media (GBCM) benefits (detection sensitivity) and risks (reactions, gadolinium retention, cost). The purpose of this study is to measure preferences for properties of GBCM in women at intermediate or high risk of breast cancer undergoing annual screening MRI. Methods: An institutional reviewed board-approved prospective discrete choice conjoint survey was administered to patients at intermediate or high risk for breast cancer undergoing screening MRI at 4 institutions (July 2018-March 2020). Participants were given 15 tasks and asked to choose which of two hypothetical GBCM they would prefer. GBCMs varied by the following attributes: sensitivity for cancer detection (80-95%), intracranial gadolinium retention (1-100 molecules per 100 million administered), severe allergic-like reaction rate (1-19 per 100,000 administrations), mild allergic-like reaction rate (10-1000 per 100,000 administrations), out-of-pocket cost ($25-$100). Attribute levels were based on published values of existing GBCMs. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis was used to derive attribute "importance." Preference shares were determined by simulation. Results: Response (87% [247/284]) and completion (96% [236/247]) rates were excellent. Sensitivity (importance = 44.3%, 95% confidence interval = 42.0-46.7%) was valued more than GBCM-related risks (mild allergic-like reaction risk (19.5%, 17.9-21.1%), severe allergic-like reaction risk (17.0%, 15.8-18.1%), intracranial gadolinium retention (11.6%, 10.5-12.7%), out-of-pocket expense (7.5%, 6.8-8.3%)). Lower income participants placed more importance on cost and less on sensitivity (p < 0.01). A simulator is provided that models GBCM preference shares by GBCM attributes and competition. Conclusions: Patients at intermediate or high risk for breast cancer undergoing MRI screening prioritize cancer detection over GBCM-related risks, and prioritize reaction risks over gadolinium retention. Key points: • Among women undergoing annual breast MRI screening, cancer detection sensitivity (attribute "importance," 44.3%) was valued more than GBCM-related risks (mild allergic reaction risk 19.5%, severe allergic reaction risk 17.0%, intracranial gadolinium retention 11.6%, out-of-pocket expense 7.5%). • Prospective four-center patient preference data have been incorporated into a GBCM choice simulator that allows users to input GBCM properties and calculate patient preference shares for competitor GBCMs. • Lower-income women placed more importance on out-of-pocket cost and less importance on cancer detection (p < 0.01) when prioritizing GBCM properties

Evaluation of Southern Ocean cloud in the HadGEM3 general circulation model and MERRA-2 reanalysis using ship-based observations

Southern Ocean (SO) shortwave (SW) radiation biases are a common problem in contemporary general circulation models (GCMs), with most models exhibiting a tendency to absorb too much incoming SW radiation. These biases have been attributed to deficiencies in the representation of clouds during the austral summer months, either due to cloud cover or cloud albedo being too low. The problem has been the focus of many studies, most of which utilised satellite datasets for model evaluation. We use multi-year ship-based observations and the CERES spaceborne radiation budget measurements to contrast cloud representation and SW radiation in the atmospheric component Global Atmosphere (GA) version&nbsp;7.1 of the HadGEM3 GCM and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. We find that the prevailing bias is negative in GA7.1 and positive in MERRA-2. GA7.1 performs better than MERRA-2 in terms of absolute SW bias. Significant errors of up to 21&thinsp;W&thinsp;m&minus;2 (GA7.1) and 39&thinsp;W&thinsp;m&minus;2 (MERRA-2) are present in both models in the austral summer. Using ship-based ceilometer observations, we find low cloud below 2&thinsp;km to be predominant in the Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean sectors of the SO. Utilising a novel surface lidar simulator developed for this study, derived from an existing Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) &ndash; active remote sensing simulator (ACTSIM) spaceborne lidar simulator, we find that GA7.1 and MERRA-2 both underestimate low cloud and fog occurrence relative to the ship observations on average by 4&thinsp;%&ndash;9&thinsp;% (GA7.1) and 18&thinsp;% (MERRA-2). Based on radiosonde observations, we also find the low cloud to be strongly linked to boundary layer atmospheric stability and the sea surface temperature. GA7.1 and MERRA-2 do not represent the observed relationship between boundary layer stability and clouds well. We find that MERRA-2 has a much greater proportion of cloud liquid water in the SO in austral summer than GA7.1, a likely key contributor to the difference in the SW radiation bias. Our results suggest that subgrid-scale processes (cloud and boundary layer parameterisations) are responsible for the bias and that in GA7.1 a major part of the SW radiation bias can be explained by cloud cover underestimation, relative to underestimation of cloud albedo.</p