Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations. ESRI WP611, February 2019

People underestimate long-term growth in savings because they linearise exponential growth – a phenomenon known as exponential growth bias (EGB). This bias has implications for multiple financial decisions, particularly those relating to pensions. We hypothesised that underestimation might be even more severe for regular savings relative to lump sums, because savers need also to estimate accumulation. The additional cognitive load could strengthen EGB, or individuals might underestimate accumulation in addition to EGB. Four experiments investigated: (1) whether underestimation of money growth is greater for long streams of regular savings than for lump sums; (2) whether underestimation occurs when questions are framed intuitively as the cost of delaying starting a pension; and (3) whether practice with a calculator designed to illustrate the cost of delay attenuates underestimation. Individuals were more likely to underestimate money growth from regular savings than from lump sums, because they failed to accumulate contributions in addition to displaying EGB. Underestimation was substantial and persistent. Practice with a calculator partially attenuated underestimation, primarily among individuals with higher educational attainment and without a pension. Overall, these findings imply that across multiple judgements, decisions and frames, individuals substantially underestimate money growth, reducing the attractiveness of saving

The framing of options for retirement: Experimental tests for policy. ESRI WP604, December 2018

We hypothesise and confirm a substantial framing effect in relation to whether people opt for an annuity on retirement. Two laboratory experiments were conducted in collaboration with a national pensions regulator. Individuals demanded a higher annuity rate when pensions were initially conceived of as an accumulated lump sum – a “nest egg” or “pension pot” – than when they were initially conceived of as retirement income. The effect was recorded using both a matching and a choice procedure. Effect sizes implied more than a doubling of demand for annuities at market rates. While mindful of the need for caution in generalising from hypothetical laboratory studies, the findings have potentially strong policy implications. The framing of pension products in marketing materials and disclosures may have substantial effects on financial risks borne in later life

Unhappiness, health and cognitive ability in old age

Background To test whether scores on depression inventories on entry to a longitudinal study predict mental ability over the next 4–16 years. Method Associations between scores on the Beck Depression Inventory and on tests of intelligence, vocabulary and memory were analysed in 5070 volunteers aged 49–93 years after differences in prescribed drug consumption, death and drop-out, sex, socio-economic advantage and recruitment cohort effects had also been considered. Results On all cognitive tasks Beck scores on entry, even in the range 0–7 indicating differences in above average contentment, affected overall levels of cognitive performance but not rates of age-related cognitive decline suggesting effects of differences in life satisfaction rather than in depression. Conclusions A new finding is that, in old age, increments in life satisfaction are associated with better cognitive performance. Implications for interpreting associations between depression inventory scores and cognitive performance in elderly samples are discussed

Cystic fibrosis mice carrying the missense mutation G551D replicate human genotype phenotype correlations

We have generated a mouse carrying the human G551D mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene (CFTR) by a one-step gene targeting procedure. These mutant mice show cystic fibrosis pathology but have a reduced risk of fatal intestinal blockage compared with 'null' mutants, in keeping with the reduced incidence of meconium ileus in G551D patients. The G551D mutant mice show greatly reduced CFTR-related chloride transport, displaying activity intermediate between that of cftr(mlUNC) replacement ('null') and cftr(mlHGU) insertional (residual activity) mutants and equivalent to approximately 4% of wild-type CFTR activity. The long-term survival of these animals should provide an excellent model with which to study cystic fibrosis, and they illustrate the value of mouse models carrying relevant mutations for examining genotype-phenotype correlations

An open learning system for special needs education

The field of special needs education in case of speech and language deficiencies has seen great success, utilizing a number of paper-based systems, to help young children experiencing difficulty in language acquisition and the understanding of languages. These systems employ card and paper-based illustrations, which are combined to create scenarios for children in order to expose them to new vocabulary in context. While this success has encouraged the use of such systems for a long time, problems have been identified that need addressing. This paper presents research toward the application of an Open Learning system for special needs education that aims to provide an evolution in language learning in the context of understanding spoken instruction. Users of this Open Learning system benefit from open content with novel presentation of keywords and associated context. The learning algorithm is derived from the field of applied computing in human biology using the concept of spaced repetition and providing a novel augmentation of the memorization process for special needs education in a global Open Education setting

Trust and privacy in distributed work groups

Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling and PredictionTrust plays an important role in both group cooperation and economic exchange. As new technologies emerge for communication and exchange, established mechanisms of trust are disrupted or distorted, which can lead to the breakdown of cooperation or to increasing fraud in exchange. This paper examines whether and how personal privacy information about members of distributed work groups influences individuals' cooperation and privacy behavior in the group. Specifically, we examine whether people use others' privacy settings as signals of trustworthiness that affect group cooperation. In addition, we examine how individual privacy preferences relate to trustworthy behavior. Understanding how people interact with others in online settings, in particular when they have limited information, has important implications for geographically distributed groups enabled through new information technologies. In addition, understanding how people might use information gleaned from technology usage, such as personal privacy settings, particularly in the absence of other information, has implications for understanding many potential situations that arise in pervasively networked environments.Preprin

Early VEGF testing in inflammatory neuropathy avoids POEMS syndrome misdiagnosis and associated costs.

BACKGROUND: Prompt diagnosis and early treatment prevents disability in Polyneuropathy Organomegaly Endocrinopathy Monoclonal-protein and Skin Changes (POEMS) syndrome. Delay in diagnosis is common with 55% of patients initially incorrectly diagnosed with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP). Patients are often treated with intravenous immunoglobulin which is both expensive and ineffective in the treatment of POEMS. Testing patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy with serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) more accurately identifies POEMS syndrome than the current standard of care. Incorporating VEGF testing into screening could prevent misdiagnosis and reduce costs. METHODS: We used observed treatment information for patients in the University College London Hospital's POEMS syndrome database (n=100) and from the National Immunoglobulin Database to estimate costs associated with incorrect CIDP diagnoses across our cohort. We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis to compare the current diagnostic algorithm with an alternative which includes VEGF testing for all patients with an acquired demyelinating neuropathy. RESULTS: Treatment associated with an incorrect CIDP diagnosis led to total wasted healthcare expenditures of between £808 550 and £1 111 756 across our cohort, with an average cost-per-POEMS-patient misdiagnosed of £14 701 to £20 214. Introducing mandatory VEGF testing for patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy would lead to annual cost-savings of £107 398 for the National Health Service and could prevent misdiagnosis in 16 cases per annum. CONCLUSIONS: Misdiagnosis in POEMS syndrome results in diagnostic delay, disease progression and significant healthcare costs. Introducing mandatory VEGF testing for patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy is a cost-effective strategy allowing for early POEMS diagnosis and potentially enabling prompt disease-directed therapy

An Investigation into Gender Disparities in the Field of Computing

This paper explains the reasons as to why there is under-representation of females computer science. Recent research undertaken at a British University focused on gender imbalance amongst academic staff in the Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University. The paper presents evidence that suggests the significance of identifying female role models in the field as a precursor to improving the current gender imbalance amongst academic faculty. In addition, the paper suggests the importance of addressing the negative stereotypical images related to the discipline and suggests the importance of identifying barriers to access and mobility females encounter in the field. The results of this initial investigation demonstrate the subjective belief amongst female academic faculty that in the School of Computing is dominated by male academics. Further, this belief pattern manifests itself in a perceived lack of motivation for promotion in the School. It can be concluded that the deeply entrenched belief system determines a lack of attempts to seek and secure promotion amongst all grades of female faculty. The paper proposes recommendations which the School could adopt to improve recruitment and retention of female academic staff and students

The incidence and make up of ability grouped sets in the UK primary school

The adoption of setting in the primary school (pupils ability grouped across classes for particular subjects) emerged during the 1990s as a means to raise standards. Recent research based on 8875 children in the Millennium Cohort Study showed that 25.8% of children in Year 2 were set for literacy and mathematics and a further 11.2% of children were set for mathematics or literacy alone. Logistic regression analysis showed that the best predictors of being in the top set for literacy or mathematics were whether the child was born in the Autumn or Winter and cognitive ability scores. Boys were significantly more likely than girls to be in the bottom literacy set. Family circumstances held less importance for setting placement compared with the child’s own characteristics, although they were more important in relation to bottom set placement. Children in bottom sets were significantly more likely to be part of a long-term single parent household, have experienced poverty, and not to have a mother with qualifications at NVQ3 or higher levels. The findings are discussed in relation to earlier research and the implications for schools are set out