Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961-2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961-1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods

Evaluation of European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS) products using in site observations

Three land-surface models with land-data assimilation scheme (DA) were evaluated for one growing season using in situ observations obtained across Europe. To avoid drifts in the land-surface state in the models, soil moisture corrections are derived from errors in screen-level atmospheric quantities. With the in situ data it is assessed whether these land-surface schemes produce adequate results regarding the annual range of the soil water content, the monthly mean soil moisture content in the root zone and evaporative fraction (the ratio of evapotranspiration to energy available at the surface). DA considerably reduced bias in net precipitation, while slightly reducing RMSE as well. Evaporative fraction was improved in dry conditions but was hardly affected in moist conditions. The amplitude of soil moisture variations tended to be underestimated. The impact of improved land-surface properties like Leaf Area Index, water holding capacity and rooting depth may be as large as corrections of the DA systems. Because soil moisture memorizes errors in the hydrological cycle of the models, DA will remain necessary in forecast mode. Model improvements should be balanced against improvements of DA per se. Model bias appearing from persistent analysis increments arising from DA systems should be addressed by model improvement

Soil control on runoff response to climate change in regional climate model simulations

Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature projections

Seasonal changes in a sandy beach fish assemblage at Canto Grande, Santa Catarina, South Brazil

Copyright © 2004 Coastal Education and Research Foundation (CERF).Neste trabalho realizaramse amostragens, com uma rede de praia, de modo a estudar a comunidade de peixes de substrato arenoso na enseada de Canto Grande, Santa Catarina, Brasil. As amostragens realizaramse em intervalos de 3 horas durante períodos de 24 h, numa base bimensal, entre Abril de 1996 e Fevereiro de 1997. Verificouse existir uma variação sazonal no número de espécies, densidade de peixes e biomassa, tendo os valores mais elevados ocorrido em Fevereiro (38 espécies, 257.6 peixes 1000 mˉ², 2286.4 g 1000 mˉ²). Recolheuse um total de 67 espécies, pertencentes a 56 géneros e a 33 famílias, sendo a comunidade dominada por sete espécies pertencentes a três famílias: Atherinella brasiliensis (Atherinidae); Brevoortia pectinata, Harengula clupeola e Sardinella brasiliensis (Clupeidae); Anchoviella lepidontostole, Cetengraulis edentulus e Lycengraulis grossidens (Engraulidae). Tanto a diversidade de espécies (H′) como a equitabilidade (J′) foram médias a elevadas ao longo do ano devido à baixa dominância. A maior mudança na estrutura da comunidade ocorreu entre os meses de Inverno (Julho e Agosto) e as outras estações. Nenhuma das espécies dominantes pode ser classificada como residente. Os principais predadores foram Pomatomus saltator (Inverno) e Trichiurus lepturus (Verão). A maior parte das espécies observadas foram ou peixes juvenis ou espécies pelágicas de pequeno tamanho e fortemente gregárias.ABSTRACT: A shallow-water fish assemblage, over a soft, sandy bottom, at Canto Grande, Santa Catarina, Brazil, was sampled with a beach seine. Sampling was undertaken at 3 h intervals over 24 h on a bimonthly basis between April 1996 and February 1997. There was a seasonal variation in the number of species, density of fishes and biomass with the highest values in February (38 species, 257.6 fish 1000 mˉ², 2286.4 g 1000 mˉ²). A total of 67 species, belonging to 56 genera and 33 families were collected and the assemblage was dominated by seven species belonging to three families: Atherinella brasiliensis (Atherinidae); Brevoortia pectinata, Harengula clupeola and Sardinella brasiliensis (Clupeidae); Anchoviella lepidontostole, Cetengraulis edentulus and Lycengraulis grossidens (Engraulidae). Species diversity (H′) and equitability (J′) were medium to high throughout the year due to the low dominance. The largest change in the assemblage structure occurred between winter months (July and August) and the other seasons. None of the dominant species can be classified as a resident. Main predators were Pomatomus saltator (winter) and Trichiurus lepturus (summer). Most of the species observed were either juvenile fish or small pelagic and strongly gregarious species

Midterm Self Evaluation Report November 2004 - June 2007 : Dutch National Research Programme Climate changes Spatial Planning (CcSP)

This self evaluation report is a product of the Climatic Change Spatial Planning consortium. It describes the progress on a programme level and within each theme of the CcSP-programme over the period November 2004 until May 200

On the Relationship Between the Practice of Mindfulness Meditation and Personality-an Exploratory Analysis of the Mediating Role of Mindfulness Skills

Abstract Mindfulness meditation (MM) has often been suggested to induce fundamental changes in the way events in life are experienced and dealt with, presumably leading to alterations in personality. However, the relationship between the practice of MM and personality has not been systematically studied. The aim of this study was to explore this relationship and to investigate the mediating role of mindfulness skills. Thirty-five experienced mindfulness meditators (age range, 31-75 years; meditation experience range, 0.25-35 years; mean, ∼13 years) and 35 age-, gender-, and ethnicity-matched controls (age range, 27-63 years) without any meditation experience completed a personality (NEO-FFI) and mindfulness (KIMS) questionnaire. The practice of MM was positively related to openness and extraversion and negatively related to neuroticism and conscientiousness. Thus, the results of the current study associate the practice of MM with higher levels of curiosity and receptivity to new experiences and experience of positive affect and with less proneness toward negative emotions and worrying and a reduced focus on achievements. Furthermore, the mediating role of specific mindfulness skills in the relationship between the practice of MM and personality traits was shown

Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia

Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. Methods Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013.Results Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region. Conclusions We showed that rainfall and sentinel chickens provide a useful early warning of MVEV risk to humans across endemic and epidemic areas, and that a combination of the two indicators improves the ability to assess MVEV risk and inform risk management measures