High resolution numerical study of the Algiers 2001 flash flood: sensitivity to the upper-level potential vorticity anomaly

From 9 to 11 November 2001, intense cyclogenesis affected the northern coasts of Africa and more particularly the densely populated city of Algiers. During the morning of 10 November, more than 130 mm of precipitation was recorded at Bouzareah and resulted in mudslides which devastated the Bab-el-Oued district. This disaster caused more than 700 casualties and catastrophic damage. Like many other heavy rainstorms in the western Mediterranean, this event was associated with the presence of an upper-level trough materialized by a deep stratospheric intrusion and characterized by high potential vorticity values. In this study, the impact of this synoptic structure on the localization and intensity of the precipitation which affected Algiers is investigated using a potential vorticity (PV) inversion method coupled for the first time with the French non-hydrostatic MESO-NH model. A set of perturbed synoptic environments was designed by slightly modifying the extent and the intensity of the coherent potential vorticity structures in the operational ARPEGE analysis. It is shown that such modifications may have a strong impact on the fine-scale precipitation forecast in the Algiers region, thereby demonstrating the fundamental role played by the potential vorticity anomaly during this exceptional meteorological event

From the Kalman Filter to the Particle Filter: A Geometrical Perspective of the Curse of Dimensionality

The aim of this contribution is to provide a description of the difference between Kalman filter and particle filter when the state space is of high dimension. In the Gaussian framework, KF and PF give the same theoretical result. However, in high dimension and using finite sampling for the Gaussian distribution, the PF is not able to reproduce the solution produced by the KF. This discrepancy is highlighted from the convergence property of the Gaussian law toward a hypersphere: in high dimension, any finite sample of a Gaussian law lies within a hypersphere centered in the mean of the Gaussian law and of radius square-root of the trace of the covariance matrix. This concentration of probability suggests the use of norm as a criterium that discriminates whether a forecast sample can be compatible or not with a given analysis state. The contribution illustrates important characteristics that have to be considered for the high dimension but does not introduce a new approach to face the curse of dimensionality.</jats:p

A new approach to sensitivity climatologies: the DTS-MEDEX-2009 campaign

Adaptive observation is an approach to improving the quality of numerical weather forecasts through the optimization of observing networks. It is sometimes referred to as Data Targeting (DT). This approach has been applied to high impact weather during specific field campaigns in the past decade. Adaptive observations may involve various types of observations, including either specific research observing platforms or routine observing platforms employed in an adaptive way. The North-Atlantic TReC 2003 and the EURORISK-PREVIEW 2008 exercises focused on the North-Atlantic and Western Europe areas using mainly routine observing systems. These campaigns also included Mediterranean cases. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; The most recent campaign, DTS-MEDEX-2009, is the first campaign in which the DT method has been used to address exclusively Mediterranean high impact weather events. In this campaign, which is an important stage in the MEDEX development, only operational radiosonde stations and commercial aircraft data (AMDAR) have provided additional observations. Although specific diagnostic studies are needed to assess the impact of the extra-observations on forecast skill and demonstrate the effectiveness of DTS-MEDEX-2009, some preliminary findings can be deduced from a survey of this targeting exercise. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; After a description of the data targeting system and some illustrations of particular cases, this paper attempts some comparisons of additional observation needs (through effectively deployed radio-soundings) with sensitivity climatologies in the Mediterranean. The first step towards a sensitivity climatology for Mediterranean cases of high impact weather is indirectly given by the frequency of extra-soundings launched from the network of radiosonde stations involved in the DTS-MEDEX-2009 campaign

The Development and Use of Pitfall and Probe Traps for Capturing Insects in Stored Grain

The development and use of pitfall and probe traps for capture of insects in bulk-stored grain are outlined. Unbaited traps are effective in detecting infestations and they detect a large number of species compared with grain-sampling devices. The effectiveness of the traps is related to temperature, trapping period, and grain moisture content; and traps are less reliable for detecting insect species that are less mobile, have a non uniform distribution in grain, feed within kernels, or can escape from the traps. Comparisons are given between effectiveness of probe traps and grain sampling for detecting insects, and experience using probe traps in stored grain is reporte

Refining human palaeodietary reconstruction using amino acid delta N-15 values of plants, animals and humans.

An established method of estimating the trophic level of an organism is through stable isotope analysis of its tissues and those of its diet. This method has been used in archaeology to reconstruct past human diet from the stable nitrogen isotope (d15N) values of human and herbivore bone collagen. However, this approach, using the 15N-enrichment of human bone collagen d15N values over associated herbivore bone collagen d15N values to predict the relative importance of animal protein, relies on the assumptions that: (i) the d15N values of plants consumed by humans and herbivores are identical, and (ii) the 15Nenrichment between diet and consumer is consistent. Bone collagen amino acid d15N values have the potential to tackle these uncertainties, as they constrain the factors influencing bone collagen d15N values. In this study, the d15N values of glutamic acid and phenylalanine in human and herbivore bone collagen isolates from Neolithic sites in Germany, Greece and Turkey were determined by gas chromatography-combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry. The fraction of animal protein in total dietary protein consumed by the humans was estimated by: (i) comparing bulk human and herbivore collagen d15N values, (ii) comparing bulk human and herbivore collagen and ancient charred cereal grain d15N values, (iii) comparing human bone collagen d15NGlutamic acid and d15NPhenylalanine values, and (iv) comparing d15NGlutamic acid values of human and herbivore bone collagen and estimated d15NGlutamic acid values of ancient charred cereal grains. Where determined cereal grain d15N values are higher than estimated herbivore forage values, estimates of animal protein consumption are significantly lower, emphasising the importance of the plant nitrogen contribution to human bone collagen. This study also highlights the need for further investigation into: (i) the D15NConsumer-Diet values of glutamic acid and phenylalanine in terrestrial ecosystems, and (ii) D15NGlutamic acid-Phenylalanine values of common plant foods in order to improve the accuracy and more widespread applicability of amino acid-based methods for palaeodietary reconstruction

Prevalence of psychosis in black ethnic minorities in Britain: analysis based on three national surveys

Purpose A considerable excess of psychosis in black ethnic minorities is apparent from clinical studies, in Britain, as in other developed economies with white majority populations. This excess is not so marked in population surveys. Equitable health service provision should be informed by the best estimates of the excess. We used national survey data to establish the difference in the prevalence of psychosis between black ethnic groups and the white majority in the British general population. Methods Analysis of the combined datasets (N = 26,091) from the British national mental health surveys of 1993, 2000 and 2007. Cases of psychosis were determined either by the use of the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry (SCAN), or from a combination of screening items. We controlled for sex, age, social class, unemployment, design features and other putative confounders, using a Disease Risk Score. Results People from black ethnic minorities had an excess prevalence rate of psychosis compared with the white majority population. The OR, weighted for study design and response rate, was 2.72 (95 % CI 1.3–5.6, p = 0.002). This was marginally increased after controlling for potential confounders (OR = 2.90, 95 % CI 1.4–6.2, p = 0.006). Conclusions The excess of psychosis in black ethnic minority groups was similar to that in two previous British community surveys, and less than that based on clinical studies. Even so it confirms a considerable need for increased mental health service resources in areas with high proportions of black ethnic minority inhabitants