Nearest neighbor embedding with different time delays

A nearest neighbor based selection of time delays for phase space reconstruction is proposed and compared to the standard use of time delayed mutual information. The possibility of using different time delays for consecutive dimensions is considered. A case study of numerically generated solutions of the Lorenz system is used for illustration. The effect of contamination with various levels of additive Gaussian white noise is discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, updated to final versio

Southern hemispheric halon trends and global halon emissions, 1978–2011

The atmospheric records of four halons, H-1211 (CBrClF2), H-1301 (CBrF3), H-2402 (CBrF2CBrF2) and H-1202 (CBr2F2), measured from air collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania, between 1978 and 2011, are reported. Mixing ratios of H-1211, H-2402 and H-1202 began to decline in the early to mid-2000s, but those of H-1301 continue to increase up to mid-2011. These trends are compared to those reported by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Experiment). The observations suggest that the contribution of the halons to total tropospheric bromine at Cape Grim has begun to decline from a peak in 2008 of about 8.1 ppt. An extrapolation of halon mixing ratios to 2060, based on reported banks and predicted release factors, shows this decline becoming more rapid in the coming decades, with a contribution to total tropospheric bromine of about 3 ppt in 2060. Top-down global annual emissions of the halons were derived using a two-dimensional atmospheric model. The emissions of all four have decreased since peaking in the late 1980s–mid-1990s, but this decline has slowed recently, particularly for H-1301 and H-2402 which have shown no decrease in emissions over the past five years. The UEA (University of East Anglia) top-down model-derived emissions are compared to those reported using a top-down approach by NOAA and AGAGE and the bottom-up estimates of HTOC (Halons Technical Options Committee). The implications of an alternative set of steady-state atmospheric lifetimes are discussed. Using a lifetime of 14 yr or less for H-1211 to calculate top-down emissions estimates would lead to small, or even negative, estimated banks given reported production data. Finally emissions of H-1202, a product of over-bromination during the production process of H-1211, have continued despite reported production of H-1211 ceasing in 2010. This raises questions as to the source of these H-1202 emissions

A new multi-gas constrained model of trace gas non-homogeneous transport in firn: evaluation and behaviour at eleven polar sites

Insoluble trace gases are trapped in polar ice at the firn-ice transition, at approximately 50 to 100 m below the surface, depending primarily on the site temperature and snow accumulation. Models of trace gas transport in polar firn are used to relate firn air and ice core records of trace gases to their atmospheric history. We propose a new model based on the following contributions. First, the firn air transport model is revised in a poromechanics framework with emphasis on the non-homogeneous properties and the treatment of gravitational settling. We then derive a nonlinear least square multi-gas optimisation scheme to calculate the effective firn diffusivity (automatic diffusivity tuning). The improvements gained by the multi-gas approach are investigated (up to ten gases for a single site are included in the optimisation process). We apply the model to four Arctic (Devon Island, NEEM, North GRIP, Summit) and seven Antarctic (DE08, Berkner Island, Siple Dome, Dronning Maud Land, South Pole, Dome C, Vostok) sites and calculate their respective depth-dependent diffusivity profiles. Among these different sites, a relationship is inferred between the snow accumulation rate and an increasing thickness of the lock-in zone defined from the isotopic composition of molecular nitrogen in firn air (denoted d15N). It is associated with a reduced diffusivity value and an increased ratio of advective to diffusive flux in deep firn, which is particularly important at high accumulation rate sites. This has implications for the understanding of d15N of N2 records in ice cores, in relation with past variations of the snow accumulation rate. As the snow accumulation rate is clearly a primary control on the thickness of the lock-in zone, our new approach that allows for the estimation of the lock-in zone width as a function of accumulation may lead to a better constraint on the age difference between the ice and entrapped gases

Chlorine isotope composition in chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 in firn, stratospheric and tropospheric air

The stratospheric degradation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) releases chlorine, which is a major contributor to the destruction of stratospheric ozone (O3). A recent study reported strong chlorine isotope fractionation during the breakdown of the most abundant CFC (CFC-12, CCl2F2, Laube et al., 2010a), similar to effects seen in nitrous oxide (N2O). Using air archives to obtain a long-term record of chlorine isotope ratios in CFCs could help to identify and quantify their sources and sinks. We analyse the three most abundant CFCs and show that CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-113 (CClF2CCl2F) exhibit significant stratospheric chlorine isotope fractionation, in common with CFC-12. The apparent isotope fractionation (εapp) for mid- and high-latitude stratospheric samples are (-2.4±0.5) ‰ and (-2.3±0.4) ‰ for CFC-11, (-12.2±1.6) ‰ and (-6.8±0.8) ‰ for CFC-12 and (-3.5±1.5) ‰ and (-3.3±1.2) ‰ for CFC-113, respectively. Assuming a constant isotope composition of emissions, we calculate the expected trends in the tropospheric isotope signature of these gases based on their stratospheric 37Cl enrichment and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We compare these projections to the long-term δ(37Cl) trends of all three CFCs, measured on background tropospheric samples from the Cape Grim air archive (Tasmania, 1978 – 2010) and tropospheric firn air samples from Greenland (NEEM site) and Antarctica (Fletcher Promontory site). From 1970 to the present-day, projected trends agree with tropospheric measurements, suggesting that within analytical uncertainties a constant average emission isotope delta is a compatible scenario. The measurement uncertainty is too high to determine whether the average emission isotope delta has been affected by changes in CFC manufacturing processes, or not. Our study increases the suite of trace gases amenable to direct isotope ratio measurements in small air volumes (approximately 200 ml), using a single-detector gas chromatography-mass spectrometry system

A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air

We present the first reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitude atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction from Greenland firn air. Firn air samples were collected at three deep ice core sites in Greenland (NGRIP in 2001, Summit in 2006 and NEEM in 2008). CO records from the three sites agree well with each other as well as with recent atmospheric measurements, indicating that CO is well preserved in the firn at these sites. CO atmospheric history was reconstructed back to the year 1950 from the measurements using a combination of two forward models of gas transport in firn and an inverse model. The reconstructed history suggests that Arctic CO in 1950 was 140–150 nmol mol-1, which is higher than today's values. CO mole fractions rose by 10–15 nmol mol-1 from 1950 to the 1970s and peaked in the 1970s or early 1980s, followed by a ˜ 30 nmol mol-1 decline to today's levels. We compare the CO history with the atmospheric histories of methane, light hydrocarbons, molecular hydrogen, CO stable isotopes and hydroxyl radicals (OH), as well as with published CO emission inventories and results of a historical run from a chemistry-transport model. We find that the reconstructed Greenland CO history cannot be reconciled with available emission inventories unless unrealistically large changes in OH are assumed. We argue that the available CO emission inventories strongly underestimate historical NH emissions, and fail to capture the emission decline starting in the late 1970s, which was most likely due to reduced emissions from road transportation in North America and Europe

Accelerating growth of HFC-227ea (1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane) in the atmosphere

We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in air samples originating from remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its accelerating growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the current northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.029 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.056 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Furthermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by a factor of three

Changes to the chemical state of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere during the second half of the twentieth century

The NOx (NO and NO2) and HOx (OH and HO2) budgets of the atmosphere exert a major influence on atmospheric composition, controlling removal of primary pollutants and formation of a wide range of secondary products, including ozone, that can influence human health and climate. However, there remain large uncertainties in the changes to these budgets over recent decades. Due to their short atmospheric lifetimes, NOx and HOx are highly variable in space and time, and so the measurements of these species are of limited value for examining long-term, large-scale changes to their budgets. Here, we take an alternative approach by examining long-term atmospheric trends of alkyl nitrates, the production efficiency of which is dependent on the atmospheric [NO] ∕ [HO2] ratio. We derive long-term trends in the alkyl nitrates from measurements in firn air from the NEEM site, Greenland. Their mixing ratios increased by a factor of 3–5 between the 1970s and 1990s. This was followed by a steep decline to the sampling date of 2008. Moreover, we examine how the trends in the alkyl nitrates compare to similarly derived trends in their parent alkanes (i.e. the alkanes which, when oxidised in the presence of NOx, lead to the formation of the alkyl nitrates). The ratios of the alkyl nitrates to their parent alkanes increased from around 1970 to the late 1990s. This is consistent with large changes to the [NO] ∕ [HO2] ratio in the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere during this period. Alternatively, they could represent changes to concentrations of the hydroxyl radical, OH, or to the transport time of the air masses from source regions to the Arctic

Tests of Statistical Methods for Estimating Galaxy Luminosity Function and Applications to the Hubble Deep Field

We studied the statistical methods for the estimation of the luminosity function (LF) of galaxies. We focused on four nonparametric estimators: $1/V_{\rm max}$ estimator, maximum-likelihood estimator of Efstathiou et al. (1988), Cho{\l}oniewski's estimator, and improved Lynden-Bell's estimator. The performance of the $1/V_{\rm max}$ estimator has been recently questioned, especially for the faint-end estimation of the LF. We improved these estimators for the studies of the distant Universe, and examined their performances for various classes of functional forms by Monte Carlo simulations. We also applied these estimation methods to the mock 2dF redshift survey catalog prepared by Cole et al. (1998). We found that $1/V_{\rm max}$ estimator yields a completely unbiased result if there is no inhomogeneity, but is not robust against clusters or voids. This is consistent with the well-known results, and we did not confirm the bias trend of $1/V_{\rm max}$ estimator claimed by Willmer (1997) in the case of homogeneous sample. We also found that the other three maximum-likelihood type estimators are quite robust and give consistent results with each other. In practice we recommend Cho{\l}oniewski's estimator for two reasons: 1. it simultaneously provides the shape and normalization of the LF; 2. it is the fastest among these four estimators, because of the algorithmic simplicity. Then, we analyzed the photometric redshift data of the Hubble Deep Field prepared by Fern\'{a}ndez-Soto et al. (1999) using the above four methods. We also derived luminosity density $\rho_{\rm L}$ at $B$- and $I$-band. Our $B$-band estimation is roughly consistent with that of Sawicki, Lin, & Yee (1997), but a few times lower at $2.0 < z < 3.0$. The evolution of $\rho_{\rm L}(I)$ is found to be less prominent.Comment: To appear in ApJS July 2000 issue. 36 page

Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and related chemicals

The amended and adjusted Montreal Protocol continues to be successful at reducing emissions and atmospheric abundances of most controlled ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Projec

An evaluation of the stimulants and impediments to innovation within PFI/PPP projects

This paper identifies the theoretical stimulants and impediments associated with the implementation of PFI/PPP (Private Finance Initiative/Public Private Partnership) projects. A current defect of this procurement approach is the unintentional constraint upon the innovations incorporated into the development of PFI projects. A critical evaluation of the published literature has been utilized to synthesize a theoretical model. The paper proposes a theoretical model for the identification of potential innovation stimulants and impediments within this type of procurement. This theoretical model is then utilised to evaluate four previously completed PFI projects. These project case-studies have been examined in detail. The evaluation demonstrates how ineffective current procedures are. The application of this model before project letting could eliminate unintentional constraints and stimulate improved innovation within the process. The implementation of the model could improve the successful delivery of innovation within the entire PFI/PPP procurement process