Do atmospheric events explain the arrival of an invasive ladybird (Harmonia axyridis) in the UK?

Species introduced outside their natural range threaten global biodiversity and despite greater awareness of invasive species risks at ports and airports, control measures in place only concern anthropogenic routes of dispersal. Here, we use the Harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, an invasive species which first established in the UK from continental Europe in 2004, to test whether records from 2004 and 2005 were associated with atmospheric events. We used the atmospheric- chemistry transport model SILAM to model the movement of this species from known distributions in continental Europe and tested whether the predicted atmospheric events were associated with the frequency of ladybird records in the UK. We show that the distribution of this species in the early years of its arrival does not provide substantial evidence for a purely anthropogenic introduction and show instead that atmospheric events can better explain this arrival event. Our results suggest that air flows which may assist dispersal over the English Channel are relatively frequent; ranging from once a week from Belgium and the Netherlands to 1–2 times a week from France over our study period. Given the frequency of these events, we demonstrate that atmospheric-assisted dispersal is a viable route for flying species to cross natural barriers

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Description of the emission module

A birch pollen emission model is described and its main features are discussed. The development of the model is based on a double-threshold temperature sum model that describes the propagation of the flowering season and naturally links to the thermal time models to predict the onset and duration of flowering. For the flowering season, the emission model considers ambient humidity and precipitation rate, both of which suppress the pollen release, as well as wind speed and turbulence intensity, which promote it. These dependencies are qualitatively evaluated using the aerobiological observations. Reflecting the probabilistic character of the flowering of an individual tree in a population, the model introduces relaxation functions at the start and end of the season. The physical basis of the suggested birch pollen emission model is compared with another comprehensive emission module reported in literature. The emission model has been implemented in the SILAM dispersion modelling system, the results of which are evaluated in a companion paper

14 th Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes -2-6

Abstract: Airborne pollen particles can be dispersed into the atmosphere and depending on the meteorological conditions can reach large distances (~10 3 km) and produce allergic symptoms in a part of the population sensitive to it. In this study, the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) in its inverse mode (source apportionment problem) is applied to determine the main source areas of the episodes that produced high pollen levels in eight aerobiological stations of the Xarxa Aerobiològica de Catalunya (Aerobiological Network of Catalonia) during the years 2006, 2007 and 2008. Because of the low local contribution to birch pollen in Catalonia (NE of Spain), it is believed that the occasional birch pollen peaks observed each spring may come from pollen emitted in other European regions. The model SILAM (Sofiev et al, 2006 a) in its adjoint (inverse) mode has been widely applied to study the contribution of long-range transport to the observed pollen peaks in north Europe (Sofiev et al., 2006 b

Geographical trends in the yolk carotenoid composition of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)

Carotenoids in the egg yolks of birds are considered to be important antioxidants and immune stimulants during the rapid growth of embryos. Yolk carotenoid composition is strongly affected by the carotenoid composition of the female’s diet at the time of egg formation. Spatial and temporal differences in carotenoid availability may thus be reflected in yolk concentrations. To assess whether yolk carotenoid concentrations or carotenoid profiles show any large-scale geographical trends or differences among habitats, we collected yolk samples from 16 European populations of the pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. We found that the concentrations and proportions of lutein and some other xanthophylls in the egg yolks decreased from Central Europe northwards. The most southern population (which is also the one found at the highest altitude) also showed relatively low carotenoid levels. Concentrations of β-carotene and zeaxanthin did not show any obvious geographical gradients. Egg yolks also contained proportionally more lutein and other xanthophylls in deciduous than in mixed or coniferous habitats. We suggest that latitudinal gradients in lutein and xanthophylls reflect the lower availability of lutein-rich food items in the northern F. hypoleuca populations and in montane southern populations, which start egg-laying earlier relative to tree phenology than the Central European populations. Similarly, among-habitat variation is likely to reflect the better availability of lutein-rich food in deciduous forests. Our study is the first to indicate that the concentration and profile of yolk carotenoids may show large-scale spatial variation among populations in different parts of the species’ geographical range. Further studies are needed to test the fitness effects of this geographical variation

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Stochastic flowering phenology in Dactylis Glomerata populations described by Markov chain modelling

Understanding the relationship between flowering patterns and pollen dispersal is important in climate change modelling, pollen forecasting, forestry and agriculture. Enhanced understanding of this connection can be gained through detailed spatial and temporal flowering observations on a population level, combined with modelling simulating the dynamics. Species with large distribution ranges, long flowering seasons, high pollen production and naturally large populations can be used to illustrate these dynamics. Revealing and simulating species-specific demographic and stochastic elements in the flowering process will likely be important in determining when pollen release is likely to happen in flowering plants. Spatial and temporal dynamics of eight populations of Dactylis glomerata were collected over the course of two years to determine high-resolution demographic elements. Stochastic elements were accounted for using Markov Chain approaches in order to evaluate tiller-specific contribution to overall population dynamics. Tiller-specific developmental dynamics were evaluated using three different RV matrix correlation coefficients. We found that the demographic patterns in population development were the same for all populations with key phenological events differing only by a few days over the course of the seasons. Many tillers transitioned very quickly from non-flowering to full flowering, a process that can be replicated with Markov Chain modelling. Our novel approach demonstrates the identification and quantification of stochastic elements in the flowering process of D. glomerata, an element likely to be found in many flowering plants. The stochastic modelling approach can be used to develop detailed pollen release models for Dactylis, other grass species and probably other flowering plants