Characterizing the Initial Phase of Epidemic Growth on some Empirical Networks

A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly susceptible population. In order for this quantity to be meaningful, the initial expected growth of the number of infectious individuals in the large-population limit should be exponential. We investigate to what extent this assumption is valid by performing repeated simulations of epidemics on selected empirical networks, viewing each epidemic as a random process in discrete time. The initial phase of each epidemic is analyzed by fitting the number of infected people at each time step to a generalised growth model, allowing for estimating the shape of the growth. For reference, similar investigations are done on some elementary graphs such as integer lattices in different dimensions and configuration model graphs, for which the early epidemic behaviour is known. We find that for the empirical networks tested in this paper, exponential growth characterizes the early stages of the epidemic, except when the network is restricted by a strong low-dimensional spacial constraint, such as is the case for the two-dimensional square lattice. However, on finite integer lattices of sufficiently high dimension, the early development of epidemics shows exponential growth.Comment: To be included in the conference proceedings for SPAS 2017 (International Conference on Stochastic Processes and Algebraic Structures), October 4-6, 201

Evaluation of Thermal Versus Plasma-Assisted ALD Al2O3 as Passivation for InAlN/AlN/GaN HEMTs

Al2O3 films deposited by thermal and plasma-assisted atomic layer deposition (ALD) were evaluated as passivation layers for InAlN/AlN/GaN HEMTs. As a reference, a comparison was made with the more conventional plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition deposited SiNx passivation. The difference in sheet charge density, threshold voltage, f(T) and f(max) was moderate for the three samples. The gate leakage current differed by several orders of magnitude, in favor of Al2O3 passivation, regardless of the deposition method. Severe current slump was measured for the HEMT passivated by thermal ALD, whereas near-dispersion free operation was observed for the HEMT passivated by plasma-assisted ALD. This had a direct impact on the microwave output power. Large-signal measurements at 3 GHz revealed that HEMTs with Al2O3 passivation exhibited 77% higher output power using plasma-assisted ALD compared with thermal ALD

Health-related quality of life after vertebral or hip fracture: a seven-year follow-up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The negative impact of vertebral and hip low-energy fractures on health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) has been demonstrated previously, but few prospective long-term follow-up studies have been conducted. This study aims to (i) investigate the changes and long-term impact of vertebral or hip fracture and between fracture groups on HRQOL in postmenopausal women prospectively between two and seven years after the inclusion fracture, (ii) compare HRQOL results between fracture and reference groups and (iii) study the relationship between HRQOL and physical performance, spinal deformity index and bone mineral density at seven-year follow-up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ninety-one women examined two years after a low-energy vertebral or hip fracture were invited to a new examination seven years after the diagnosis. HRQOL was examined using the SF-36 questionnaire and was compared with an age and sex-matched reference group. Physical function was assessed using tests and questionnaires. Bone mineral density was measured. Radiographs of the spine were evaluated using the visual semiquantitative technique. A longitudinal and cross-sectional design was used in this study. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, Student's <it>t</it>-tests, ANCOVA, and partial correlation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-seven women participated. In the 42 women (mean age 75.8, SD 4.7) with vertebral fracture as inclusion fracture, bodily pain had deteriorated between two and seven years and might be explained by new fracture. Remaining pronounced reduction of HRQOL was seen in all domains except general health and mental health at seven-year follow-up in women with vertebral fractures compared to the reference group (p < 0.05). All 25 women (mean age 75.0, SD 4.7) with hip fracture as inclusion fracture had no significant changes in HRQOL between two and seven years and did not differ from the reference group regarding HRQOL after seven years. The vertebral group had significantly lower values for bodily pain, vitality, role-emotional function and mental health compared to the hip group. HRQOL showed a positive relationship between physical activity, static balance and handgrip strength.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The long-term reduction of HRQOL in women with vertebral fracture emerged clearly in this study. The relationships between HRQOL and physical performance in women with vertebral and hip fracture raise questions for more research.</p

Redução da dor em mulheres com osteoporose submetidas a um programa de atividade física

Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a dor e o consumo de analgésicos em mulheres com osteoporose, após a realização de um programa de atividade física. Participaram do estudo 15 mulheres com média de idade 59±7,6 anos, com diagnóstico densitométrico em L2-L4 de osteoporose e que haviam feito uso de analgésicos para dorsalgia pelo menos três vezes por semana no mês precedente à avaliação inicial. A dor foi avaliada por questões extraídas do Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire, aplicadas antes e após um programa de atividade física; o escore variou de 0 (melhor, sem dor) a 10 (pior, dor diária). O programa, que consistiu em caminhadas, exercícios livres de membros superiores e inferiores e relaxamento, foi realizado duas vezes por semana durante 28 semanas consecutivas. Os dados foram tratados estatisticamente. Comparando-se as pontuações obtidas, a dor apresentou uma diminuição significativa entre a avaliação inicial (7,33±3,05) e final (4,17±2,61, p=0,0007). Observou-se também uma redução no consumo de analgésicos. Esses resultados sugerem que o programa de atividade física foi efetivo para a diminuição da dor, contribuindo para a melhora da qualidade de vida das mulheres com osteoporose.This paper aimed at evaluating the effect of a physical activity program onto the level of pain as perceived by women with osteoporosis. Fifteen women (mean age 59±7.6 years old) with bone-densitometry diagnosis of lumbar osteoporosis took part in the study; they all took analgesics at least thrice a week in the month prior to the study. Pain was assessed by questions extracted from the Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire both before and after the program; scores ranged from 0 (no pain) to 10 (pain everyday). The program consisted of walking, lower and upper limb free exercises, massage, and relaxation, twice a week, during 28 weeks. Data were statistically analysed. A significant decrease in pain was found after the program (from 7.33±3.05 to 4.17±2.61, p=0,0007), and a lesser use of analgesics was reported. These results suggest that the program of physical activity brought pain relief, thus contributing to improve quality of life of women with osteoporosis