1,718 research outputs found
An empirical Bayesian analysis applied to the globular cluster pulsar population
We describe an empirical Bayesian approach to determine the most likely size
of an astronomical population of sources of which only a small subset are
observed above some limiting flux density threshold. The method is most
naturally applied to astronomical source populations at a common distance
(e.g.,stellar populations in globular clusters), and can be applied even to
populations where a survey detects no objects. The model allows for the
inclusion of physical parameters of the stellar population and the detection
process. As an example, we apply this method to the current sample of radio
pulsars in Galactic globular clusters. Using the sample of flux density limits
on pulsar surveys in 94 globular clusters published by Boyles et al., we
examine a large number of population models with different dependencies. We
find that models which include the globular cluster two-body encounter rate,
, are strongly favoured over models in which this is not a factor. The
optimal model is one in which the mean number of pulsars is proportional to
. This model agrees well with earlier work by Hui et al.
and provides strong support to the idea that the two-body encounter rate
directly impacts the number of neutron stars in a cluster. Our model predicts
that the total number of potentially observable globular cluster pulsars in the
Boyles et al. sample is 1070, where the uncertainties signify
the 95% confidence interval. Scaling this result to all Galactic globular
clusters, and to account for radio pulsar beaming, we estimate the total
population to be 2280.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, corrected a few minor formatting errors
which have also been submitted as an erratum to MNRA
Why the distance of PSR J0218+4232 does not challenge pulsar emission theories
Recent VLBI measurements of the astrometric parameters of the millisecond
pulsar J0218+4232 by Du et al. have suggested this pulsar is as distant as 6.3
kpc. At such a large distance, the large {\gamma}-ray flux observed from this
pulsar would make it the most luminous {\gamma}-ray pulsar known. This
luminosity would exceed what can be explained by the outer gap and slot-gap
pulsar emission models, potentially placing important and otherwise elusive
constraints on the pulsar emission mechanism. We show that the VLBI parallax
measurement is dominated by the Lutz-Kelker bias. When this bias is corrected
for, the most likely distance for this pulsar is 3.15(+0.85/-0.60) kpc. This
revised distance places the luminosity of PSR J0218+4232 into a range where it
does not challenge any of the standard theories of the pulsar emission
mechanism.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRA
Isolated pulsar spin evolution on the P-Pdot Diagram
We look at two contrasting spin-down models for isolated radio pulsars and,
accounting for selection effects, synthesize observable populations. While our
goal is to reproduce all of the observable characteristics, in this paper we
pay particular attention to the form of the spin period vs. period derivative
(P-Pdot) diagram and its dependence on various pulsar properties. We analyse
the initial spin period, the braking index, the magnetic field, various beaming
models, as well as the pulsar's luminosity. In addition to considering the
standard magnetic dipole model for pulsar spin-down, we also consider the
recent hybrid model proposed by Contopoulos & Spitkovsky. The magnetic dipole
model, however, does a better job of reproducing the observed pulsar
population. We conclude that random alignment angles and period dependent
luminosity distributions are essential to reproduce the observed P-Pdot
diagram. We also consider the time decay of alignment angles, and attempt to
reconcile various models currently being studied. We conclude that, in order to
account for recent evidence for the alignment found by Weltevrede & Johnston,
the braking torque on a neutron star should not depend strongly on the
inclination. Our simulation code is publically available and includes a
web-based interface to examine the results and make predictions for yields of
current and future surveys.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure
Strengthening the role of civil society in water sector governance towards climate change adaptation in African cities – Durban, Maputo, Nairobi
Water resources management is one of the most important climate change-related issues on international, national and urban public policy agendas. Income inequality in South Africa, Mozambique, and Kenya is among the largest in the world; in all three countries, equity struggles related to water are growing in social, political and ecological significance, which is both a symptom and a cause of urban vulnerabilities related to climate change. Democratic mediation of these conflicts, and sustainable long-term management of water resources in the face of climate change, requires public participation. But those most affected by water issues such as scarcity and flooding are also those least likely to be able to participate in governance and policy institutions. In particular, members of economically disadvantaged groups – especially women, in general – tend to be gravely impacted by poor water management, but also face great difficulties in participating effectively in governance bodies. This project responded to that particular need, and has developed practical strategies for strengthening urban governments in planning investments in climate change adaptation. The project linked university researchers with community-based NGOs conducting environmental education and organizing participatory workshops in low-income urban areas with pressing climate change and water-related problems; built on proven methods of community-university collaboration to strengthen urban watershed governance; increased equity in public participation processes related to urban climate change adaptation; and fostered progressive local, national and international policy development on climate change-related water management – while training students, university researchers, NGO staff members, and community participants. The major research outcome of the project is its contribution to understanding effective ways of strengthening local governments, NGOs and civil society organizations involved in environmental education and organizing for improved public participation in watershed governance and climate change adaptation in African urban areas.This research was supported by the International Development Research Centre, grant number IDRC GRANT NO. 106002-00
Lutz-Kelker bias in pulsar parallax measurements
Lutz & Kelker showed that parallax measurements are systematically
overestimated because they do not properly account for the larger volume of
space that is sampled at smaller parallax values. We apply their analysis to
neutron stars, incorporating the bias introduced by the intrinsic radio
luminosity function and a realistic Galactic population model for neutron
stars. We estimate the bias for all published neutron star parallax
measurements and find that measurements with less than ~95% certainty, are
likely to be significantly biased. Through inspection of historic parallax
measurements, we confirm the described effects in optical and radio
measurements, as well as in distance estimates based on interstellar dispersion
measures. The potential impact on future tests of relativistic gravity through
pulsar timing and on X-ray--based estimates of neutron star radii is briefly
discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 3 tables, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in MNRA
The pulsar spectral index distribution
The flux density spectra of radio pulsars are known to be steep and, to first
order, described by a power-law relationship of the form S_{\nu} \propto
\nu^{\alpha}, where S_{\nu} is the flux density at some frequency \nu and
\alpha is the spectral index. Although measurements of \alpha have been made
over the years for several hundred pulsars, a study of the intrinsic
distribution of pulsar spectra has not been carried out. From the result of
pulsar surveys carried out at three different radio frequencies, we use
population synthesis techniques and a likelihood analysis to deduce what
underlying spectral index distribution is required to replicate the results of
these surveys. We find that in general the results of the surveys can be
modelled by a Gaussian distribution of spectral indices with a mean of -1.4 and
unit standard deviation. We also consider the impact of the so-called
"Gigahertz-peaked spectrum" pulsars. The fraction of peaked spectrum sources in
the population with significant turn-over at low frequencies appears to be at
most 10%. We demonstrate that high-frequency (>2 GHz) surveys preferentially
select flatter-spectrum pulsars and the converse is true for lower-frequency
(<1 GHz) surveys. This implies that any correlations between \alpha and other
pulsar parameters (for example age or magnetic field) need to carefully account
for selection biases in pulsar surveys. We also expect that many known pulsars
which have been detected at high frequencies will have shallow, or positive,
spectral indices. The majority of pulsars do not have recorded flux density
measurements over a wide frequency range, making it impossible to constrain
their spectral shapes. We also suggest that such measurements would allow an
improved description of any populations of pulsars with 'non-standard' spectra.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by MNRA
Gravitational wave background from rotating neutron stars
The background of gravitational waves produced by the ensemble of rotating
neutron stars (which includes pulsars, magnetars and gravitars) is
investigated. A formula for \Omega(f) (commonly used to quantify the
background) is derived, properly taking into account the time evolution of the
systems since their formation until the present day. Moreover, the formula
allows one to distinguish the different parts of the background: the
unresolvable (which forms a stochastic background) and the resolvable. Several
estimations of the background are obtained, for different assumptions on the
parameters that characterize neutron stars and their population. In particular,
different initial spin period distributions lead to very different results. For
one of the models, with slow initial spins, the detection of the background can
be rejected. However, other models do predict the detection of the background
by the future ground-based gravitational wave detector ET. A robust upper limit
for the background of rotating neutron stars is obtained; it does not exceed
the detection threshold of two cross-correlated Advanced LIGO interferometers.
If gravitars exist and constitute more than a few percent of the neutron star
population, then they produce an unresolvable background that could be detected
by ET. Under the most reasonable assumptions on the parameters characterizing a
neutron star, the background is too faint. Previous papers have suggested
neutron star models in which large magnetic fields (like the ones that
characterize magnetars) induce big deformations in the star, which produce a
stronger emission of gravitational radiation. Considering the most optimistic
(in terms of the detection of gravitational waves) of these models, an upper
limit for the background produced by magnetars is obtained; it could be
detected by ET, but not by BBO or DECIGO.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figure
Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries, Millisecond Radio Pulsars, and the Cosmic Star Formation Rate
We report on the implications of the peak in the cosmic star-formation rate
(SFR) at redshift z ~ 1.5 for the resulting population of low-mass X-ray
binaries(LMXB) and for that of their descendants, the millisecond radio pulsars
(MRP). Since the evolutionary timescales of LMXBs, their progenitors, and their
descendants are thought be significant fractions of the time-interval between
the SFR peak and the present epoch, there is a lag in the turn-on of the LMXB
population, with the peak activity occurring at z ~ 0.5 - 1.0. The peak in the
MRP population is delayed further, occurring at z < 0.5. We show that the
discrepancy between the birthrate of LMXBs and MRPs, found under the assumption
of a stead-state SFR, can be resolved for the population as a whole when the
effects of a time-variable SFR are included. A discrepancy may persist for
LMXBs with short orbital periods, although a detailed population synthesis will
be required to confirm this. Further, since the integrated X-ray luminosity
distribution of normal galaxies is dominated by X-ray binaries, it should show
strong luminosity evolution with redshift. In addition to an enhancement near
the peak (z ~ 1.5) of the SFR due to the prompt turn-on of the relatively
short-lived massive X-ray binaries and young supernova remnants, we predict a
second enhancement by a factor ~10 at a redshift between ~ 0.5 and ~ 1 due to
the delayed turn-on of the LMXB population. Deep X-ray observations of galaxies
out to z ~ 1 by AXAF will be able to observe this enhancement, and, by
determining its shape as a function of redshift, will provide an important new
method for constraining evolutionary models of X-ray binaries.Comment: 13 pages, including 1 figure. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter
Observations of 20 millisecond pulsars in 47 Tucanae at 20 cm
We have used a new observing system on the Parkes radio telescope to carry
out a series of pulsar observations of the globular cluster 47 Tucanae at 20-cm
wavelength. We detected all 11 previously known pulsars, and have discovered
nine others, all of which are millisecond pulsars in binary systems. We have
searched the data for relatively short orbital period systems, and found one
pulsar with an orbital period of 96 min, the shortest of any known radio
pulsar.
The increased rate of detections with the new system resulted in improved
estimates of the flux density of the previously known pulsars, determination of
the orbital parameters of one of them, and a coherent timing solution for
another one. Five of the pulsars now known in 47 Tucanae have orbital periods
of a few hours and implied companion masses of only ~ 0.03 Msun. Two of these
are eclipsed at some orbital phases, while three are seen at all phases at 20
cm but not always at lower frequencies. Four and possibly six of the other
binary systems have longer orbital periods and companion masses ~ 0.2 Msun,
with at least two of them having relatively large orbital eccentricities. All
20 pulsars have rotation periods in the range 2-8 ms.Comment: 15 pages, 6 embedded EPS figures, to be published in The
Astrophysical Journa
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