Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS

Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea: The Role of the Amundsen Sea Continental Shelf in Exchanges Between Ocean and Ice Shelves

The Amundsen Sea is a key region of Antarctica where ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and ice sheet interact. For much of Antarctica, the relatively warm water of the open Southern Ocean (a few degrees above freezing) does not reach the Antarctic continental shelf in large volumes under current climate conditions. However, in the Amundsen Sea, warm water penetrates onto the continental shelf and provides heat that can melt the underside of the area’s floating ice shelves, thinning them. Here, we discuss how the ocean’s role in melting has come under increased scrutiny, present 2014 observations from the Amundsen Sea, and discuss their implications, highlighting aspects where understanding is still incomplete

Variation in the distribution and properties of Circumpolar Deep Water in the eastern Amundsen Sea, on seasonal timescales, using seal‐borne tags

In the Amundsen Sea, warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) crosses the continental shelf toward the vulnerable West Antarctic ice shelves, contributing to their basal melting. Due to lack of observations, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of CDW, particularly seasonally. A new dataset of 6704 seal‐tag temperature and salinity profiles in the easternmost trough between February and December 2014 reveals a CDW layer on average 49 db thicker in late winter (August to October) than in late summer (February to April), the reverse seasonality of that seen at moorings in the western trough. This layer contains more heat in winter, but on the 27.76 kg/m3 density surface CDW is 0.32° C warmer in summer than winter, across the northeastern Amundsen sea, which may indicate wintertime shoaling offshelf changes CDW properties onshelf. In Pine Island Bay these seasonal changes on density surfaces are reduced, likely by gyre circulation

Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt Channels Stabilized by Secondary Flow

Ice-shelf basal channels form due to concentrated submarine melting. They are present in many Antarctic ice shelves and can reduce ice-shelf structural integrity, potentially destabilizing ice shelves by full-depth incision. Here, we describe the viscous ice response to a basal channel - secondary flow - which acts perpendicular to the channel axis and is induced by gradients in ice thickness. We use a full-Stokes ice-flow model to systematically assess the transient evolution of a basal channel in the presence of melting. Secondary flow increases with channel size and reduces the rate of channel incision, such that linear extrapolation or the Shallow-Shelf Approximation cannot project future channel evolution. For thick ice shelves (> 600 m) secondary flow potentially stabilizes the channel, but is insufficient to significantly delay breakthrough for thinner ice (< 400 m). Using synthetic data, we assess the impact of secondary flow when inferring basal-channel melt rates from satellite observations

Vigorous lateral export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf

The instability and accelerated melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are among the foremost elements of contemporary global climate change1, 2. The increased freshwater output from Antarctica is important in determining sea level rise1, the fate of Antarctic sea ice and its effect on the Earth’s albedo4, 5, ongoing changes in global deep-ocean ventilation6, and the evolution of Southern Ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling7, 8. A key uncertainty in assessing and predicting the impacts of Antarctic Ice Sheet melting concerns the vertical distribution of the exported meltwater. This is usually represented by climate-scale models3–5, 9 as a near-surface freshwater input to the ocean, yet measurements around Antarctica reveal the meltwater to be concentrated at deeper levels10, 11, 12, 13, 14. Here we use observations of the turbulent properties of the meltwater outflows from beneath a rapidly melting Antarctic ice shelf to identify the mechanism responsible for the depth of the meltwater. We show that the initial ascent of the meltwater outflow from the ice shelf cavity triggers a centrifugal overturning instability that grows by extracting kinetic energy from the lateral shear of the background oceanic flow. The instability promotes vigorous lateral export, rapid dilution by turbulent mixing, and finally settling of meltwater at depth. We use an idealized ocean circulation model to show that this mechanism is relevant to a broad spectrum of Antarctic ice shelves. Our findings demonstrate that the mechanism producing meltwater at depth is a dynamically robust feature of Antarctic melting that should be incorporated into climate-scale models

Persistent Ross Sea freshening from imbalance West Antarctic Ice Shelf melting

A 63-year observational record in the southwest Ross Sea shows a continuing, near-linear salinity decrease of 0.170 and slight warming of 0.013°C through 2020. That freshening exceeded any increase in sea ice production and brine release from stronger southerly winds, while melting and freezing at the Ross Ice Shelf base contributed little to the salinity change. The parallel seawater density decline appears not to have enhanced warm deep water intrusions onto the continental shelf. Confirming prior inferences, the salinity change has been mainly caused by a growing imbalance in the meltwater available from thinning ice shelves and increased iceberg calving in the upstream Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Shorter-term salinity variability has tracked winds near the Amundsen Sea continental shelf break, in turn coherent with a broader Pacific climate variability index, and with salinity reversals on and seaward of the Ross continental shelf. The melt driven freshening is positively correlated with global atmospheric CO2 and temperature increases, and adds to the rise in sea level from increased glacier flow into weakened ice shelves. Continued erosion of those ice shelves could end the production of high salinity shelf and bottom waters, as defined in the Ross Sea, by the 2050s

Actively evolving subglacial conduits and eskers initiate ice shelf channels at an Antarctic grounding line

Ice-shelf channels are long curvilinear tracts of thin ice found on Antarctic ice shelves. Many of them originate near the grounding line, but their formation mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we use ice-penetrating radar data from Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, to infer that the morphology of several ice-shelf channels is seeded upstream of the grounding line by large basal obstacles indenting the ice from below. We interpret each obstacle as an esker ridge formed from sediments deposited by subglacial water conduits, and calculate that the eskers’ size grows towards the grounding line where deposition rates are maximum. Relict features on the shelf indicate that these linked systems of subglacial conduits and ice-shelf channels have been changing over the past few centuries. Because ice-shelf channels are loci where intense melting occurs to thin an ice shelf, these findings expose a novel link between subglacial drainage, sedimentation and ice-shelf stability

High-resolution sub-ice-shelf seafloor records of 20th-century ungrounding and retreat of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica.

Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf (PIGIS) has been thinning rapidly over recent decades, resulting in a progressive drawdown of the inland ice and an upstream migration of the grounding line. The resultant ice loss from Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and its neighboring ice streams presently contributes an estimated ∼10% to global sea level rise, motivating efforts to constrain better the rate of future ice retreat. One route toward gaining a better understanding of the processes required to underpin physically based projections is provided by examining assemblages of landforms and sediment exposed over recent decades by the ongoing ungrounding of PIG. Here we present high-resolution bathymetry and sub-bottom-profiler data acquired by autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) surveys beneath PIGIS in 2009 and 2014, respectively. We identify landforms and sediments associated with grounded ice flow, proglacial and subglacial sediment transport, overprinting of lightly grounded ice-shelf keels, and stepwise grounding line retreat. The location of a submarine ridge (Jenkins Ridge) coincides with a transition from exposed crystalline bedrock to abundant sediment cover potentially linked to a thick sedimentary basin extending upstream of the modern grounding line. The capability of acquiring high-resolution data from AUV platforms enables observations of landforms and understanding of processes on a scale that is not possible in standard offshore geophysical surveys

The Influence of Pine Island Ice Shelf Calving on Basal Melting

The combination of the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS) draft and a seabed ridge beneath it form a topographic barrier, restricting access of warm Circumpolar Deep Water to a cavity inshore of the ridge, thus exerting an important control on PIIS basal ablation. In addition, PIIS has recently experienced several large calving events and further calving could significantly alter the cavity geometry. Changes in the ice front location, together with changes in ice thickness, might relax the topographic barrier and thus significantly change basal melt rates. Here, we consider the impact of past, and possible future, calving events on PIIS melt rates. We use a high‐resolution ocean model to simulate melt rates in both an idealized domain whose geometry captures the salient features of Pine Island Glacier, and a realistic geometry accurately resembling it, to explore how calving affects melt rates. The idealized simulations reveal that the melt response to calving has a sensitive dependence on the thickness of the gap between PIIS and the seabed ridge and inform our interpretation of the realistic simulations, which suggest that PIIS melt rates did not respond significantly to recent calving. However, the mean melt rate increases approximately linearly with further calving, and is amplified by approximately 10% relative to present day once the ice front reaches the ridge‐crest, taking less than one decade if calving maintains its present rate. This provides strong evidence that calving may represent an important, but as yet unexplored, contribution to the ice‐ocean sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet