Adapting a growth equation to model tree regeneration in mountain forests

Management and risk analysis of protection forests depend on a reliable estimation of regeneration processes and tree growth under different site conditions. While the growth of forest stands and thus the average growth of larger trees is well studied and published in yield tables as well as embodied in numerous simulation models, there is still a lack of information about the crucial initial stages of tree growth. Thus, we evaluated juvenile tree growth for different site conditions in the Swiss Alps and developed an approach to model both the early and later stages of growth based on the Bertalanffy equation. This equation is physiologically well founded and requires only two parameter estimates: a maximum tree height and a growth parameter. Data for the parameter estimation were available from studies of tree regeneration at a range of sites in Switzerland: growth patterns of larch (Larix decidua) were available from a high-elevation afforestation experiment. For spruce (Picea abies), data were obtained from a blowdown area in the Alps. The growth equation was fitted to the observed data and we found a good correlation of the fitted curves with the observed data. The parameter estimates were validated with independent data sets. The extrapolated growth curves, calculated with the estimated growth rates, correspond well to the validation data. Thus, it is possible to use the Bertalanffy equation to model both the early and later stages of growth. With this approach, we provide a basis for modelling the growth of juvenile and mature trees of different tree species in mountain forests of the European Alp

A modified sensitive palladium-copper oxide and multiwalled carbon nanotubes electrochemical sensor for detection of ametridione pesticide

Glassy carbon electrode modified sensitive Pd-CuO/MWCNTs electrochemical nanosensor was used for detection of ametridione pesticide in water samples. The morphology characteristics of Pd-CuO/MWCNTs are examined by scanning electron microscopy and EDX. The ametridione pesticide under voltammetric investigation involves irreversible, 4e? electron reduction based on the protonation of the two carbonyl groups (>C=O). The voltammetric method was applied for the detection of ametridione in BR buffer solution at pH 5.0 as a supporting electrolyte. The detection limit, limit of quantification and concentration ranges of the proposed method were 0.0796 ?g?mL?1 (signal/noise=3), 0.5560 ?g?mL?1 and 0.1 to 10.0 ?g?mL?1, respectively. The electrochemical sensor was successfully applied for the detection of ametridione in tap, agricultural run-off and river water samples showing >98% mean recoveries.   &nbsp

How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models

Projections of landscape dynamics are uncertain, partly due to uncertainties in model formulations. However, quantitative comparative analyses of forest landscape models are lacking. We conducted a systematic comparison of all forest landscape models currently applied in temperate European forests (LandClim, TreeMig, LANDIS-II, iLand). We examined the uncertainty of model projections under several future climate, disturbance, and dispersal scenarios, and quantified uncertainties by variance partitioning. While projections under past climate conditions were in good agreement with observations, uncertainty under future climate conditions was high, with between-model biomass differences of up to 200 t ha−1. Disturbances strongly influenced landscape dynamics and contributed substantially to uncertainty in model projections (~25–40% of observed variance). Overall, model differences were the main source of uncertainty, explaining at least 50% of observed variance. We advocate a more rigorous and systematic model evaluation and calibration, and a broader use of ensemble projections to quantify uncertainties in future landscape dynamics

Sustainable land use in mountain regions under global change: synthesis across scales and disciplines

Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general

Mapping and Assessment of forest Ecosystem and Their Services. Applications and guidance for decision making in the framework of MAES

The aim of this report is to illustrate by means of a series of case studies the implementation of mapping and assessment of forest ecosystem services in different contexts and geographical levels. Methodological aspects, data issues, approaches, limitations, gaps and further steps for improvement are analysed for providing good practices and decision making guidance. The EU initiative on Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES), with the support of all Member States, contributes to improve the knowledge on ecosytem services. MAES is one of the building-block initiatives supporting the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2000

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security

Application of Bradford’s Law on journal citations: A study of Ph.D. theses in social sciences of University of Delhi

112-120The study covers 260 Ph.D. theses submitted during 1995-2008 that have a total of 9,997 references scattered in 934 journals. The study found that the journal Economic & Political Weekly is the most cited journal with 22.8% citations, followed by The Punjab Past and Present with 1.80% citations. Bradford’s law of scattering fits to the present study

Application of Bradford’s Law on journal citations: A study of Ph.D. theses in social sciences of University of Delhi

The study covers 260 Ph.D. theses submitted during 1995-2008 that have a total of 9,997 references scattered in 934 journals. The study found that the journal Economic & Political Weekly is the most cited journal with 22.8% citations, followed by The Punjab Past and Present with 1.80% citations. Bradford’s law of scattering fits to the present study