Quantifying the latitudinal representivity of in situ solar wind observations

Advanced space-weather forecasting relies on the ability to accurately predict near-Earth solar wind conditions. For this purpose, physics-based, global numerical models of the solar wind are initialized with photospheric magnetic field and coronagraph observations, but no further observation constraints are imposed between the upper corona and Earth orbit. Data assimilation (DA) of the available in situ solar wind observations into the models could potentially provide additional constraints, improving solar wind reconstructions, and forecasts. However, in order to effectively combine the model and observations, it is necessary to quantify the error introduced by assuming point measurements are representative of the model state. In particular, the range of heliographic latitudes over which in situ solar wind speed measurements are representative is of primary importance, but particularly difficult to assess from observations alone. In this study we use 40+ years of observation-driven solar wind model results to assess two related properties: the latitudinal representivity error introduced by assuming the solar wind speed measured at a given latitude is the same as that at the heliographic equator, and the range of latitudes over which a solar wind measurement should influence the model state, referred to as the observational localisation. These values are quantified for future use in solar wind DA schemes as a function of solar cycle phase, measurement latitude, and error tolerance. In general, we find that in situ solar wind speed measurements near the ecliptic plane at solar minimum are extremely localised, being similar over only 1° or 2° of latitude. In the uniform polar fast wind above approximately 40° latitude at solar minimum, the latitudinal representivity error drops. At solar maximum, the increased variability of the solar wind speed at high latitudes means that the latitudinal representivity error increases at the poles, though becomes greater in the ecliptic, as long as moderate speed errors can be tolerated. The heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind density and temperature show very similar behaviour

The evolution of inverted magnetic fields through the inner heliosphere

Local inversions are often observed in the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), but their origins and evolution are not yet fully understood.Parker Solar Probe has recently observed rapid, Alfvénic, HMF inversions in the inner heliosphere, known as ‘switchbacks’, which have been interpreted as the possible remnants of coronal jets. It has also been suggested that inverted HMF may be produced by near-Sun interchange reconnection; a key process in mechanisms proposed for slow solar wind release. These cases suggest that the source of inverted HMF is near the Sun, and it follows that these inversions would gradually decay and straighten as they propagate out through the heliosphere. Alternatively, HMF inversions could form during solar wind transit, through phenomena such velocity shears, draping over ejecta, or waves and turbulence. Such processes are expected to lead to a qualitatively radial evolution of inverted HMF structures. Using Helios measurements spanning 0.3–1 AU, we examine the occurrence rate of inverted HMF, as well as other magnetic field morphologies, as a function of radial distance r, and find that it continually increases. This trend may be explained by inverted HMF observed between 0.3–1 AU being primarily driven by one or more of the above in-transit processes, rather than created at the Sun. We make suggestions as to the relative importance of these different processes based on the evolution of the magnetic field properties associated with inverted HMF. We also explore alternative explanations outside of our suggested driving processes which may lead to the observed trend

Towards construction of a solar wind “reanalysis” dataset: application to the first perihelion pass of parker solar probe

Accurate reconstruction of global solar-wind structure is essential for connecting remote and in situ observations of solar plasma, and hence understanding formation and release of solar wind. Information can routinely be obtained from photospheric magnetograms, via coronal and solar-wind modelling, and directly from in situ observations, typically at large heliocentric distances (most commonly near 1 AU). Magnetogram-constrained modelling has the benefit of reconstructing global solar-wind structure, but with relatively large spatial and/or temporal errors. In situ observations, on the other hand, make accurate temporal measurements of solar-wind structure, but are highly localised. We here use a data assimilative (DA) approach to combine these two sources of information as a first step towards producing a solar-wind “reanalysis” dataset that optimally combines model and observation. The physics of solar wind stream interaction is used to extrapolate in heliocentric distance, while the assumption of steady-state solar-wind structure enables extrapolation in longitude. The major challenge is extrapolating in latitude. Using solar-wind speed during the interval of the first perihelion pass of Parker Solar Probe (PSP) in November 2018 as a test bed, we investigate two approaches. The first is to assume the solar wind is two-dimensional and thus has no latitudinal structure within the ±7∘ bounded by the heliographic equatorial and ecliptic planes. The second assumes in situ solar-wind observations are representative of some (small) latitudinal range. We show how observations of the inner heliosphere, such as will be provided by PSP, can be exploited to constrain the latitudinal representivity of solar-wind observations to improve future solar-wind reconstruction and space-weather forecasting

Improving solar wind persistence forecasts: removing transient space weather events, and using observations away from the Sun-Earth line

This study demonstrates two significant ways of improving persistence forecasts of the solar wind, which exploit the relatively unchanging nature of the ambient solar wind to provide 27 day forecasts, when using data from the Lagrangian L1 point. Such forecasts are useful as a prediction tool for the ambient wind, and for benchmarking of solar wind models. We show that solar wind persistence forecasts can be improved by removing transient solar wind features such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Using CME indicators to automatically identify CME-contaminated periods in ACE data from 1998 to 2011, and replacing these with solar wind from a previous synodic rotation, persistence forecasts improve (relative to a baseline): skill scores for Bz, a crucial parameter for determining solar wind geoeffectiveness, improve by 7.7 percentage points when using a proton temperature-based indicator with good operational potential. We also show that persistence forecasts can be improved by using measurements away from L1, to reduce the requirement on coronal stability for an entire synodic period, at the cost of reduced lead time. Using STEREO-B data from 2007 to 2013 to create such a reduced lead time persistence forecast, we show that Bz skill scores improve by 17.1 percentage points relative to ACE. Finally, we report on implications for persistence forecasts from any future missions to the L5 Lagrangian point and on the successful operational implementation (in spring 2015) of the normal (ACE-based) and reduced lead time (STEREO-based) persistence forecasts in the Met Office's Space Weather Operations Centre, as well as plans for future improvements

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of Open Solar Flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with footpoints in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of footpoint exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward-migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25

Revising on the run or studying on the sofa: prospective associations between physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and exam results in British adolescents.

BACKGROUND: We investigated prospective associations between physical activity/sedentary behaviour (PA/SED) and General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) results in British adolescents. METHODS: Exposures were objective PA/SED and self-reported sedentary behaviours (screen (TV, Internet, Computer Games)/non-screen (homework, reading)) measured in 845 adolescents (14·5y ± 0·5y; 43·6 % male). GCSE results at 16y were obtained from national records. Associations between exposures and academic performance (total exam points) were assessed using multilevel mixed-effects linear regression adjusted for mood, BMI z-score, deprivation, sex, season and school; potential interactions were investigated. RESULTS: PA was not associated with academic performance. One-hour more accelerometer-assessed SED was associated with (β(95 % CI)) 6·9(1·5,12·4) more GCSE points. An extra hour of screen time was associated with 9.3(-14·3,-4·3) fewer points whereas an extra hour of non-screen time (reading/homework) was associated with 23·1(14·6,31·6) more points. Screen time was still associated with poorer scores after adjusting for objective PA/SED and reading/homework. CONCLUSIONS: An extra hour/day of screen time at 14·5y is approximately equivalent to two fewer GCSE grades (e.g., from B to D) at 16y. Strategies to achieve the right balance between screen and non-screen time may be important for improving academic performance. Concerns that encouraging more physical activity may result in decreased academic performance seem unfounded.The work of Kirsten Corder, Andrew J Atkin, and Esther M F van Sluijs was supported, wholly or in part, by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence (RES-590-28-0002). Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. The work of Kirsten Corder, Esther M F van Sluijs, Ulf Ekelund and Soren Brage was supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UP_1001/2, MC_U106179473, MC_UU_12015/3). The ROOTS data collection was supported by a programme grant to Ian Goodyer 074296/Z/04/Z from the Wellcome Trust and by the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit. The funders had no role in preparation of this manuscript. We thank Rebekah Steele and Charlotte Ridgway for assistance during data collection, and Kate Westgate and Stefanie Mayle from the physical activity technical team, and Paul Collings from the Physical Activity Programme, at the MRC Epidemiology Unit for their assistance in processing Actiheart data.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioMed Central via http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12966-015-0269-

The influence of spacecraft latitudinal offset on the accuracy of corotation forecasts

Knowledge of the ambient solar wind is important for accurate space-weather forecasting. A simple-but-effective method of forecasting near-Earth solar-wind speed is “corotation”, wherein solar-wind structure is assumed to be fixed in the reference frame rotating with the Sun. Under this approximation, observations at a source spacecraft can be rotated to a target location, such as Earth. Forecast accuracy depends upon the rate of solar-wind evolution, longitudinal and latitudinal separation between the source and target, and latitudinal structure in the solar wind itself. The time-evolution rate and latitudinal structure of the solar wind are both strongly influenced by the solar cycle, though in opposing ways. A latitudinal separation (offset) between source and target spacecraft is typically present, introducing an error to corotation forecasts. In this study, we use observations from the STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft to quantify the latitudinal error. Aliasing between the solar cycle and STEREO orbits means that individual contributions to the forecast error are difficult to isolate. However, by considering an 18-month interval near the end of solar minimum, we find that the latitudinal-offset contribution to corotation-forecast error cannot be directly detected for offsets < 6°, but is increasingly important as offsets increase. This result can be used to improve solar-wind data assimilation, allowing representivity errors in solar-wind observations to be correctly specified. Furthermore, as the maximum latitudinal offset between L5 and Earth is ≈ 5°, corotation forecasts from a future L5 spacecraft should not be greatly affected by latitudinal offset

Strongly lensed [O III] emitters at Cosmic Noon with Roman: Characterizing extreme emission line galaxies on star cluster complex scales (100 pc)

Extreme emission line galaxies (EELGs) are considered the primary contributor to cosmic reionization and are valuable laboratories to study the astrophysics of massive stars. It is strongly expected that Roman's High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS) will find many strongly gravitationally lensed [O III] emitters at Cosmic Noon (1 < z < 2.8). Roman imaging and grism spectroscopy alone will simultaneously confirm these strong lens systems and probe their interstellar medium (ISM) and stellar properties on small scales ($\lesssim$ 100 pc). Moreover, these observations will synergize with ground-based and space-based follow-up observations of the discovered lensed [O III] emitters in multi-wavelength analyses of their properties (e.g., massive stars and possible escape of ionizing radiation), spatially resolved on the scales of individual star cluster complexes. Only Roman can uniquely sample a large number of lensed [O III] emitters to study the small scale (~ 100 pc) ISM and stellar properties of these extreme emission line galaxies, detailing the key physics of massive stars and the ISM that govern cosmic reionization.Comment: Submitted in response to the call for Roman Telescope CCS white paper

Improving solar wind forecasting using data assimilation

Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of terrestrial operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a variational DA scheme with a computationally efficient solar wind model and in situ observations from STEREO-A, STEREO-B and ACE. This scheme enables solar-wind observations far from the Sun, such as at 1 AU, to update and improve the inner boundary conditions of the solar wind model (at $30$ solar radii). In this way, observational information can be used to improve estimates of the near-Earth solar wind, even when the observations are not directly downstream of the Earth. This allows improved initial conditions of the solar wind to be passed into forecasting models. To this effect, we employ the HUXt solar wind model to produce 27-day forecasts of the solar wind during the operational lifetime of STEREO-B (01 November 2007 - 30 September 2014). In near-Earth space, we compare the accuracy of these DA forecasts with both non-DA forecasts and simple corotation of STEREO-B observations. We find that $27$-day root mean-square error (RMSE) for STEREO-B corotation and DA forecasts are comparable and both are significantly lower than non-DA forecasts. However, the DA forecast is shown to improve solar wind forecasts when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth, which is an issue for corotation forecasts. And the DA scheme enables the representation of the solar wind in the whole model domain between the Sun and the Earth to be improved, which will enable improved forecasting of CME arrival time and speed

Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Testing

The Apollo-derived Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), part of NASA s now-cancelled Constellation Program, has become the reference design for the new Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The MPCV will serve as the exploration vehicle for all near-term human space missions. A strategic wind-tunnel test program has been executed at numerous facilities throughout the country to support several phases of aerodynamic database development for the Orion spacecraft. This paper presents a summary of the experimental static aerodynamic data collected to-date for the Orion Crew Module (CM) capsule. The test program described herein involved personnel and resources from NASA Langley Research Center, NASA Ames Research Center, NASA Johnson Space Flight Center, Arnold Engineering and Development Center, Lockheed Martin Space Sciences, and Orbital Sciences. Data has been compiled from eight different wind tunnel tests in the CEV Aerosciences Program. Comparisons are made as appropriate to highlight effects of angle of attack, Mach number, Reynolds number, and model support system effects