The Global Financial Crisis, Inflation Rate And Stock Market Returns In Kenya

The moderating effect of events such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the relation between stock market returns and macroeconomic variables has attracted very little attention. This study investigates the extent to which the 2008 GFC moderated the relationship between inflation rate and stock market returns. The study uses month-onmonth inflation rate and year-on-year inflation rate from 1st January 1993 to 31st December 2015 and divides the sample data into pre-crisis period (from 1st January 1993 to 31st December 2007); crisis period (from 1st January 2008 to 30th June 2009); and post-crisis period (from 1st July 2009 to 31st December 2015). It uses a product-term regression model instead of the most widely applied additive regression model. Results indicate that a unit increase in the both measures of inflation rate had significant depressing effects on stock market returns after the crisis compared to before the crisis. Likewise, the results reveal that average stock market returns were significantly higher after the crisis compared to before the crisis at low rather than medium or high values of the two measures of inflation rate. These results suggest that the Kenyan stock market is highly sensitive to variations in inflation rate, especially as it emerges from a financial or political turmoil. This study is empirically innovative in the sense that it is the first to examine the moderating effect of the 2008 GFC on the relation between inflation rate and stock market returns in Kenya using a product-term model

Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of disease surveillance and control activities for rinderpest in Somalia. The methodology applied here, involving spatial and network parameters, could also be applied to other diseases and/or species as part of a standardized approach for the design of risk-based surveillance activities in nomadic pastoral settings.</p

Sickle cell trait is not associated with endemic Burkitt lymphoma: an ethnicity and malaria endemicity-matched case-control study suggests factors controlling EBV may serve as a predictive biomarker for this pediatric cancer

Endemic Burkitt lymphoma (eBL) is associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and Plasmodium falciparum coinfections. Malaria appears to dysregulate immunity that would otherwise control EBV, thereby contributing to eBL etiology. Juxtaposed to human genetic variants associated with protection from malaria, it has been hypothesized that such variants could decrease eBL susceptibility, historically referred to as the protective hypothesis. Past studies attempting to link sickle cell trait (HbAS), which is known to be protective against malaria, with protection from eBL were contradictory and underpowered. Therefore, using a case-control study design, we examined HbAS frequency in 306 Kenyan children diagnosed with eBL compared to 537 geographically defined and ethnically matched controls. We found 23.8% HbAS for eBL patients, which was not significantly different compared to 27.0% HbAS for controls [odds ratio (OR) = 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-1.17; p-value = 0.33]. Even though cellular EBV titers, indicative of the number of latently infected B cells, were significantly higher (p-value \u3c 0.0003) in children residing in malaria holoendemic compared to hypoendemic areas, levels were not associated with HbAS genotype. Combined, this suggests that although HbAS protects against severe malaria and hyperparasitemia, it is not associated with viral control or eBL protection. However, based on receiver operating characteristic curves factors that enable the establishment of EBV persistence, in contrast to those involved in EBV lytic reactivation, may have utility as an eBL precursor biomarker. This has implications for future human genetic association studies to consider variants influencing control over EBV in addition to malaria as risk factors for eBL

Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into insect life cycle model for predicting the potential distribution of Scapsipedus icipe Hugel & Tanga

A new edible cricket species from Kenya of the genus Scapsipedus (Scapsipedus icipe Hugel & Tanga) is described through this study. Temperature-dependent development, survival, reproductive and life table parameters of S. icipe was generated and integrated into advanced Insect Life Cycle Modeling software to describe relative S. icipe population increase and spatial spread based on nine constant temperature conditions. Findings provide first-time important information on the impact of temperature on the biology, establishment and spread of S. icipe across the Africa continent. The prospect of edible S. icipe production to become a new sector in food and feed industry is discussed.GREENiNSECT of DanidaNetherlands Organization for Scientific ResearchWOTRO Science for Global Development (NWO-WOTRO)Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentAustralian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR)BioInnovate Africa Programm

Interplay between IL-10, IFN-γ, IL-17A and PD-1 Expressing EBNA1-Specific CD4+ and CD8+ T Cell Responses in the Etiologic Pathway to Endemic Burkitt Lymphoma

Children diagnosed with endemic Burkitt lymphoma (eBL) are deficient in interferon-γ (IFN-γ) responses to Epstein–Barr Nuclear Antigen1 (EBNA1), the viral protein that defines the latency I pattern in this B cell tumor. However, the contributions of immune-regulatory cytokines and phenotypes of the EBNA1-specific T cells have not been characterized for eBL. Using a bespoke flow cytometry assay we measured intracellular IFN-γ, IL-10, IL-17A expression and phenotyped CD4+ and CD8+ T cell effector memory subsets specific to EBNA1 for eBL patients compared to two groups of healthy children with divergent malaria exposures. In response to EBNA1 and a malaria antigen (PfSEA-1A), the three study groups exhibited strikingly different cytokine expression and T cell memory profiles. EBNA1-specific IFN-γ-producing CD4+ T cell response rates were lowest in eBL (40%) compared to children with high malaria (84%) and low malaria (66%) exposures (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0004, respectively). However, eBL patients did not differ in CD8+ T cell response rates or the magnitude of IFN-γ expression. In contrast, eBL children were more likely to have EBNA1-specific CD4+ T cells expressing IL-10, and less likely to have polyfunctional IFN-γ+IL-10+ CD4+ T cells (p = 0.02). They were also more likely to have IFN-γ+IL-17A+, IFN-γ+ and IL-17A+ CD8+ T cell subsets compared to healthy children. Cytokine-producing T cell subsets were predominantly CD45RA+CCR7+ TNAIVE-LIKE cells, yet PD-1, a marker of persistent activation/exhaustion, was more highly expressed by the central memory (TCM) and effector memory (TEM) T cell subsets. In summary, our study suggests that IL-10 mediated immune regulation and depletion of IFN-γ+ EBNA1-specific CD4+ T cells are complementary mechanisms that contribute to impaired T cell cytotoxicity in eBL pathogenesis

Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into Insect Life Cycle Model for predicting the potential distribution of <em>Scapsipedus icipe</em> Hugel &amp; Tanga

Scapsipedus icipe Hugel and Tanga (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is a newly described edible cricket species. Although, there is substantial interest in mass production of S. icipe for human food and animal feed, no information exists on the impact of temperature on their bionomics. Temperature-dependent development, survival, reproductive and life table parameters of S. icipe was generated and integrated into advanced Insect Life Cycle Modeling software to describe relative S. icipe population increase and spatial spread based on nine constant temperature conditions. We examined model predictions and implications for S. icipe potential distribution in Africa under current and future climate. These regions where entomophagy is widely practiced have distinctly different climates. Our results showed that S. icipe eggs were unable to hatch at 10 and 40°C, while emerged nymphs failed to complete development at 15°C. The developmental time of S. icipe was observed to decrease with increased in temperature. The lowest developmental threshold temperatures estimated using linear regressions was 14.3, 12.67 and 19.12°C and the thermal constants for development were 185.2, 1111.1- and 40.7-degree days (DD) for egg, nymph and pre-adult stages, respectively. The highest total fecundity (3416 individuals/female/generation), intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.075 days), net reproductive rate (1330.8 female/female/generation) and shortest doubling time (9.2 days) was recorded at 30°C. The regions predicted to be suitable by the model suggest that S. icipe is tolerant to a wider range of climatic conditions. Our findings provide for the first-time important information on the impact of temperature on the biology, establishment and spread of S. icipe across the Africa continent. The prospect of edible S. icipe production to become a new sector in food and feed industry is discussed

Analysis of the human Alu Ya-lineage

The Alu Ya-lineage is a group of related, short interspersed elements (SINEs) found in primates. This lineage includes subfamilies Ya1-Ya5, Ya5a2 and others. Some of these subfamilies are still actively mobilizing in the human genome. We have analyzed 2482 elements that reside in the human genome draft sequence and focused our analyses on the 2318 human autosomal Ya Alu elements. A total of 1470 autosomal loci were subjected to polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays that allow analysis of individual Ya-lineage Alu elements. About 22% (313/1452) of the Ya-lineage Alu elements were polymorphic for the insertion presence on human autosomes. Less than 0.01% (5/1452) of the Ya-lineage loci analyzed displayed insertions in orthologous loci in non-human primate genomes. DNA sequence analysis of the orthologous inserts showed that the orthologous loci contained older pre-existing Y, Sc or Sq Alu subfamily elements that were the result of parallel forward insertions or involved in gene conversion events in the human lineage. This study is the largest analysis of a group of young , evolutionarily related human subfamilies. The size, evolutionary age and variable allele insertion frequencies of several of these subfamilies makes members of the Ya-lineage useful tools for human population studies and primate phylogenetics. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Good immune restitution but unsatisfactory viral suppression in children on ART in a remote Western Kenya area

Mexico AIDS Conference 200

Enteric permeability, systemic inflammation, and post-discharge growth among a cohort of hospitalized children in Kenya and Pakistan

Objectives: To determine whether gut permeability is associated with post-discharge growth and systemic inflammation among hospitalized children in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Children aged 2–23 months being discharged from Civil Hospital Karachi (Pakistan) and Migori County Referral Hospital (Kenya) underwent lactulose-rhamnose ratio (LRR) permeability testing and were compared to age-matched children from their home communities. Linear mixed effect models estimated the associations between LRR among discharged children with change in length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-age z score (WAZ) at 45, 90, and 180 days after discharge. Linear regression tested if relationships between LRR, systemic inflammation [C-reative protein (CRP), Cluster of Differentiation 14 (CD14), Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha (TNFα), Interleukin-6 (IL-6)], and enterocyte damage [Intestinal Fatty-Acid Binding protein (I-FABP)] differed between the hospitalized and community groups. Results: One hundred thirty-seven hospitalized and 84 community participants were included. The hospitalized group had higher log-LRR [0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15–0.71, P = 0.003] than the community children. Adjustment for weight-for-length z score at discharge attenuated this association (0.31, 95% CI: 0.00–0.62, P = 0.049). LRR was not associated with changes in WAZ or LAZ in the post-discharge period. Associations between LRR and CRP (interaction P = 0.036), TNFα (P = 0.017), CD14 (P = 0.078), and IL-6 (P = 0.243) differed between community and hospitalized groups. LRR was associated with TNFα (P = 0.004) and approached significance with CD14 (P = 0.078) and IL-6 (P = 0.062) in community children, but there was no evidence of these associations among hospitalized children. Conclusions: Although increased enteric permeability is more prevalent among children being discharged from hospital compared to children in the community, it does not appear to be an important determinant of systemic inflammation or post-discharge growth among hospitalized children