A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)

We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic outbreak. After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: final death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the presently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

Time-stepping approach for solving upper-bound problems: Application to two-dimensional Rayleigh-Benard convection

An alternative computational procedure for numerically solving a class of variational problems arising from rigorous upper-bound analysis of forced-dissipative infinite-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, including the Navier-Stokes and Oberbeck-Boussinesq equations, is analyzed and applied to Rayleigh-Benard convection. A proof that the only steady state to which this numerical algorithm can converge is the required global optimal of the relevant variational problem is given for three canonical flow configurations. In contrast with most other numerical schemes for computing the optimal bounds on transported quantities (e.g., heat or momentum) within the "background field" variational framework, which employ variants of Newton's method and hence require very accurate initial iterates, the new computational method is easy to implement and, crucially, does not require numerical continuation. The algorithm is used to determine the optimal background-method bound on the heat transport enhancement factor, i.e., the Nusselt number (Nu), as a function of the Rayleigh number (Ra), Prandtl number (Pr), and domain aspect ratio L in two-dimensional Rayleigh-Benard convection between stress-free isothermal boundaries (Rayleigh's original 1916 model of convection). The result of the computation is significant because analyses, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations have suggested a range of exponents alpha and beta in the presumed Nu similar to (PrRa beta)-Ra-alpha scaling relation. The computations clearly show that for Ra <= 10(10) at fixed L = 2 root 2, Nu <= 0.106Pr(0)Ra(5/12), which indicates that molecular transport cannot generally be neglected in the "ultimate" high-Ra regime.NSF DMS-0928098 DMS-1515161 DMS-0927587 PHY-1205219Simons FoundationNSFONRInstitute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998–2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8 h average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months

Aspergillus ocratoxigênicos em uvas e no solo de cultivo da variedade Sauvignon Blanc no Nordeste brasileiro.

A ocratoxina A (OTA) é um metabólito secundário de fungos freqüentemente encontrado como contaminante de uvas, vinhos e suco de uva, sendo considerada uma das micotoxinas mais prejudiciais para a saúde humana. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a incidência de Aspergillusocratoxigênicos em uvas e no solo de cultivo da variedade Sauvignon Blanc utilizada para produção de vinho no nordeste brasileiro. As amostras de uva e de solo foram coletadas em uma região vitivinícola do Submédio São Francisco (Casa Nova, Bahia). Para o isolamento de fungos das uvas e sementes utilizou-se a Técnica de Plaqueamento Direto em meio de cultura DRBC (Dicloran Rosa Bengal Cloranfenicol); para a amostra de solo foi utilizada a técnica de espalhamento superficial, em DG 18 (Dichloran 18% Glycerol Agar), a partir de diluições seriadas. Selecionou-se para obtenção de culturas puras apenas os fungos do gênero Aspergillus que foram identificados por características morfológicas e avaliados, quanto à produção de OTA, pelo Método Plug Agar. Das uvas foram isoladas e identificadas as seguintes espécies A. foetidus, A. tubingensis e A. sp.. Destes isolados nenhum foi ocratoxigênico. Dos vinte e nove isolados obtidos do solo, quatro foram ocratoxigênicos (A. niger agregado (1), A. carbonarius agregado (2) e A. carbonarius (1)), o que realça a importância de evitar durante a colheita o contato das uvas com o solo, visto que este pode representar uma fonte de contaminação com esta micotoxina para as uvas e vinhos. Palavras-chaves: Fungos ocratoxigênicos, Uvas, Aspergillus, Ocratoxina A, Solo, Sauvignon Blan

Fungos ocratoxigênicos em solo de cultivo de uvas viníferas no Nordeste brasileiro.

Ocratoxina A (OTA) é um metabólito secundário de origem fúngica que tem recebido atenção crescente devido ao potencial perigo para os seres humanos e animais. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a incidência de fungos ocratoxigênicos do gênero Aspergillus em solos de cultivo de uvas viníferas no nordeste brasileiro. Foram coletadas amostras de solo de cultivo de três variedades de uvas viníferas, Cabernet Sauvignon, Grenache e Petit Verdot de uma região vitivinícola do nordeste brasileiro. Para o isolamento de fungos foi utilizada a técnica de espalhamento superficial, em DG 18 (Dichloran 18% Glycerol Agar), a partir de diluições seriadas. Selecionou-se para obtenção de culturaspuras apenas os fungos do gênero Aspergillus que foram identificados por características morfológicas e avaliados, quanto à produção de OTA, pelo Método Plug Agar. Das amostras de solo foram isoladas e identificadas as seguintes espécies A. foetidus, A. aculeatus, A. niger, A. tubingensis, A. carbonariuse A. ibericus. Dos vinte e quatro isolados fúngicos obtidos quatro foram ocratoxigênicos (A. niger (1), A. tubingensis (1) e A. carbonarius (2)), o que evidência a importância de evitar durante a colheita o contato das uvas com o solo, visto que este pode representar uma fonte de contaminação com esta micotoxina para as uvas e vinhos.Palavras-chaves: Fungos ocratoxigênicos, Uvas viníferas, Aspergillus, Ocratoxina A, Sol

Variational bounds on the energy dissipation rate in body-forced shear flow

A new variational problem for upper bounds on the rate of energy dissipation in body-forced shear flows is formulated by including a balance parameter in the derivation from the Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting min-max problem is investigated computationally, producing new estimates that quantitatively improve previously obtained rigorous bounds. The results are compared with data from direct numerical simulations.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Sustaining Educational Reforms in Introductory Physics

While it is well known which curricular practices can improve student performance on measures of conceptual understanding, the sustaining of these practices and the role of faculty members in implementing these practices are less well understood. We present a study of the hand-off of Tutorials in Introductory Physics from initial adopters to other instructors at the University of Colorado, including traditional faculty not involved in physics education research. The study examines the impact of implementation of Tutorials on student conceptual learning across eight first-semester, and seven second-semester courses, for fifteen faculty over twelve semesters, and includes roughly 4000 students. It is possible to demonstrate consistently high, and statistically indistinguishable, student learning gains for different faculty members; however, such results are not the norm, and appear to rely on a variety of factors. Student performance varies by faculty background - faculty involved in, or informed by physics education research, consistently post higher student learning gains than less-informed faculty. Student performance in these courses also varies by curricula used - all semesters in which the research-based Tutorials and Learning Assistants are used have higher student learning gains than those semesters that rely on non-research based materials and do not employ Learning Assistants.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, and other essential inf

Structural and mutational analyses of the Leptospira interrogans virulence-related heme oxygenase provide insights into its catalytic mechanism

© 2017 Soldano et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Heme oxygenase from Leptospira interrogans is an important virulence factor. During catalysis, redox equivalents are provided to this enzyme by the plastidic-type ferredoxin-NADP+ reductase also found in L. interrogans. This process may have evolved to aid this bacterial pathogen to obtain heme-iron from their host and enable successful colonization. Herein we report the crystal structure of the heme oxygenase-heme complex at 1.73 Å resolution. The structure reveals several distinctive features related to its function. A hydrogen bonded network of structural water molecules that extends from the catalytic site to the protein surface was cleared observed. A depression on the surface appears to be the H+ network entrance from the aqueous environment to the catalytic site for O2 activation, a key step in the heme oxygenase reaction. We have performed a mutational analysis of the F157, located at the above-mentioned depression. The mutant enzymes were unable to carry out the complete degradation of heme to biliverdin since the reaction was arrested at the verdoheme stage. We also observed that the stability of the oxyferrous complex, the efficiency of heme hydroxylation and the subsequent conversion to verdoheme was adversely affected. These findings underscore a long-range communication between the outer fringes of the hydrogen-bonded network of structural waters and the heme active site during catalysis. Finally, by analyzing the crystal structures of ferredoxin-NADP+ reductase and heme oxygenase, we propose a model for the productive association of these proteins