The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

No abstract available

Contribution of respiratory tract infections to child deaths: a data linkage study

Background: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are an important cause of death in children, and often contribute to the terminal decline in children with chronic conditions. RTIs are often underrecorded as the underlying cause of death; therefore the overall contribution of RTIs to child deaths and the potential preventability of RTI-related deaths have not been adequately quantified. Methods: We analysed deaths in children resident in England who died of non-injury causes aged 28 days to 18 years between 2001 and 2010 using death certificates linked to a longitudinal hospital admission database. We defined deaths as RTI-related if RTIs or other respiratory conditions were recorded on death certificates or linked hospital records up to 30 days before death. We examined trends in mortality by age group, year and season (winter or summer) and determined the winter excess of RTI-related deaths using rate differencing techniques. We estimated the proportion of RTI-related deaths in children with chronic conditions. Results: 22.4% (5039/22509) of child deaths were RTI-related. RTI-related deaths declined by 2.3% per year in infants aged 28 to 364 days between 2001 and 2010. No decline was observed for older children. On average there were 161 winter excess RTI-related deaths annually, accounting for 32% of all RTI-related deaths. 89.0% of children with RTI-related deaths had at least one chronic condition; neurological conditions were the most prevalent. Conclusions: RTI-related deaths have not declined in the last decade except in infants. Targeted strategies to prevent the winter excess of RTIs and to treat RTIs in children, particularly children with chronic conditions, may reduce RTI-related deaths

Vectored immunoprophylaxis protects humanized mice from mucosal HIV transmission

The vast majority of new HIV infections result from relatively inefficient transmission of the virus across mucosal surfaces during sexual intercourse. A consequence of this inefficiency is that small numbers of transmitted founder viruses initiate most heterosexual infections. This natural bottleneck to transmission has stimulated efforts to develop interventions that are aimed at blocking this step of the infection process. Despite the promise of this strategy, clinical trials of preexposure prophylaxis have had limited degrees of success in humans, in part because of lack of adherence to the recommended preexposure treatment regimens. In contrast, a number of existing vaccines elicit systemic immunity that protects against mucosal infections, such as the vaccines for influenza and human papilloma virus. We recently demonstrated the ability of vectored immunoprophylaxis (VIP) to prevent intravenous transmission of HIV in humanized mice using broadly neutralizing antibodies. Here we demonstrate that VIP is capable of protecting humanized mice from intravenous as well as vaginal challenge with diverse HIV strains despite repeated exposures. Moreover, animals receiving VIP that expresses a modified VRC07 antibody were completely resistant to repetitive intravaginal challenge by a heterosexually transmitted founder HIV strain, suggesting that VIP may be effective in preventing vaginal transmission of HIV between humans

Assessment of Local Public Health Workers' Willingness to Respond to Pandemic Influenza through Application of the Extended Parallel Process Model

Local public health agencies play a central role in response to an influenza pandemic, and understanding the willingness of their employees to report to work is therefore a critically relevant concern for pandemic influenza planning efforts. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been found useful for understanding adaptive behavior in the face of unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among local public health workers. We thus aim to use the EPPM as a lens for examining the influences of perceived threat and efficacy on local public health workers' response willingness to pandemic influenza.We administered an online, EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response (Johns Hopkins approximately Public Health Infrastructure Response Survey Tool), to local public health employees in three states between November 2006-December 2007. A total of 1835 responses were collected for an overall response rate of 83%. With some regional variation, overall 16% of the workers in 2006-7 were not willing to "respond to a pandemic flu emergency regardless of its severity". Local health department employees with a perception of high threat and high efficacy--i.e., those fitting a 'concerned and confident' profile in the EPPM analysis--had the highest declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic if required by their agency, which was 31.7 times higher than those fitting a 'low threat/low efficacy' EPPM profile.In the context of pandemic influenza planning, the EPPM provides a useful framework to inform nuanced understanding of baseline levels of--and gaps in--local public health workers' response willingness. Within local health departments, 'concerned and confident' employees are most likely to be willing to respond. This finding may allow public health agencies to design, implement, and evaluate training programs focused on emergency response attitudes in health departments

Children day care center: exposition or protection environment to intestinal parasites infestation in Aracaju, SE

Para avaliar se creches são ambientes protetores ou propiciadores de infestação intestinal, foi feito exame coproparasitológico de crianças de creche e grupo controle. Creche relacionou-se à maior prevalência de parasitoses (63% x 41,4 % ; p<0,01), com risco de infestação 1,5 vez maior

Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The WHO suggested that governments stockpile, as part of preparations for the next influenza pandemic, sufficient influenza antiviral drugs to treat approximately 25% of their populations. Our aim is two-fold: first, since in many countries the antiviral stockpile is well below this level, we search for suboptimal strategies based on treatment provided only to an age-dependent fraction of cases. Second, since in some countries the stockpile exceeds the suggested minimum level, we search for optimal strategies for post-exposure prophylactic treatment of close contacts of cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a stochastic, spatially structured individual-based model, considering explicit transmission in households, schools and workplaces, to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of an influenza pandemic in Italy and to evaluate the efficacy of interventions based on age-prioritized use of antivirals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results show that the antiviral stockpile required for treatment of cases ranges from 10% to 35% of the population for <it>R</it>₀in 1.4 – 3. No suboptimal strategies, based on treatment provided to an age-dependent fraction of cases, were found able to remarkably reduce both clinical attack rate and antiviral drugs needs, though they can contribute to largely reduce the excess mortality. Treatment of all cases coupled with prophylaxis provided to younger individuals is the only intervention resulting in a significant reduction of the clinical attack rate and requiring a relatively small stockpile of antivirals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results strongly suggest that governments stockpile sufficient influenza antiviral drugs to treat approximately 25% of their populations, under the assumption that <it>R</it>₀is not much larger than 2. In countries where the number of antiviral stockpiled exceeds the suggested minimum level, providing prophylaxis to younger individuals is an option that could be taken into account in preparedness plans. In countries where the number of antivirals stockpiled is well below 25% of the population, priority should be decided based on age-specific case fatality rates. However, late detection of cases (administration of antivirals 48 hours after the clinical onset of symptoms) dramatically affects the efficacy of both treatment and prophylaxis.</p

Staphylococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome 2000–2006: Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Molecular Characteristics

Circulating strains of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) have changed in the last 30 years including the emergence of community-associated methicillin-resistant SA (MRSA). A report suggested staphylococcal toxic shock syndrome (TSS) was increasing over 2000-2003. The last population-based assessment of TSS was 1986.Population-based active surveillance for TSS meeting the CDC definition using ICD-9 codes was conducted in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area (population 2,642,056) from 2000-2006. Medical records of potential cases were reviewed for case criteria, antimicrobial susceptibility, risk factors, and outcome. Superantigen PCR testing and PFGE were performed on available isolates from probable and confirmed cases.Of 7,491 hospitalizations that received one of the ICD-9 study codes, 61 TSS cases (33 menstrual, 28 non-menstrual) were identified. The average annual incidence per 100,000 of all, menstrual, and non-menstrual TSS was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.32-0.77), 0.69 (0.39-1.16), and 0.32 (0.12-0.67), respectively. Women 13-24 years had the highest incidence at 1.41 (0.63-2.61). No increase in incidence was observed from 2000-2006. MRSA was isolated in 1 menstrual and 3 non-menstrual cases (7% of TSS cases); 1 isolate was USA400. The superantigen gene tst-1 was identified in 20 (80%) of isolates and was more common in menstrual compared to non-menstrual isolates (89% vs. 50%, p = 0.07). Superantigen genes sea, seb and sec were found more frequently among non-menstrual compared to menstrual isolates [100% vs 25% (p = 0.4), 60% vs 0% (p<0.01), and 25% vs 13% (p = 0.5), respectively].TSS incidence remained stable across our surveillance period of 2000-2006 and compared to past population-based estimates in the 1980s. MRSA accounted for a small percentage of TSS cases. tst-1 continues to be the superantigen associated with the majority of menstrual cases. The CDC case definition identifies the most severe cases and has been consistently used but likely results in a substantial underestimation of the total TSS disease burden