Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns

Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.Peer reviewe

Cleaning up seas using blue growth initiatives : Mussel farming for eutrophication control in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication is a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems globally with pronounced negative effects in the Baltic and other semi-enclosed estuaries and regional seas, where algal growth associated with excess nutrients causes widespread oxygen free “dead zones” and other threats to sustainability. Decades of policy initiatives to reduce external (land-based and atmospheric) nutrient loads have so far failed to control Baltic Sea eutrophication, which is compounded by significant internal release of legacy phosphorus (P) and biological nitrogen (N) fixation. Farming and harvesting of the native mussel species (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) is a promising internal measure for eutrophication control in the brackish Baltic Sea. Mussels from the more saline outer Baltic had higher N and P content than those from either the inner or central Baltic. Despite their relatively low nutrient content, harvesting farmed mussels from the central Baltic can be a cost-effective complement to land-based measures needed to reach eutrophication status targets and is an important contributor to circularity. Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal is more dependent on farm type than mussel nutrient content, suggesting the need for additional development of farm technology. Furthermore, current regulations are not sufficiently conducive to implementation of internal measures, and may constitute a bottleneck for reaching eutrophication status targets in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. Highlights • Mussel farming is a viable internal measure to address Baltic Sea eutrophication. • Rates of nutrient removal depend on salinity at the regional scale and food availability at the local scale. • Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal by mussel farming depends also on farm type. • Total farm area needed for achieving HELCOM nutrient reduction targets is realistic

State of the knowledge on European marine habitat mapping and degraded habitats

During the last decades, several EU Directives and other international legislations have generated a large number of national initiatives (e.g. marine atlases) and EU programmes on habitat mapping. Nevertheless, the outcomes of these initiatives are fragmented and, to our best knowledge, to date there is no systematic assessment regarding the nature, quality and availability of information across the European seas. One of the main goals of the MERCES project (www.merces-project.eu) is to produce a census of available maps of European key marine habitats, along with their degradation status and restoration potential in the European Seas, providing a potential basis for future discussion on restoration activities. MERCES is producing a census of European marine key habitat maps, degraded habitat maps and investigating key habitat restoration potential. To do this MERCES has i. reviewed known existing habitat maps of European regional seas and provided source citations for all of the information ii. reviewed degraded habitat map resources by regional sea and habitat type (e.g. seagrass, macroalgae, coral gardens, sponge aggregations, seamounts, vents), associated habitat deterioration (e.g. extent of decline), the most common human activities and pressures reported, and the recovery and restoration potential of these habitats iii. reviewed 6 key habitats (including kelp and macroalgal forests, seagrass meadows, coralligenous assemblages, coral gardens and deep-sea bottom communities) and linked 6 major habitat features, such as dynamics, connectivity, structural complexity and vulnerability, to consequences for restoration and the likelihood of restoration succes

Current marine pressures and mechanisms driving changes in marine habitats

Human activities and the resultant pressures they place on the marine environment have been widely demonstrated to contribute to habitat degradation, therefore, their identification and quantification is an essential step towards any meaningful restoration effort. The overall scope of MERCES Deliverable 1.2 is to review current knowledge regarding the major marine pressures placed upon marine ecosystems in EU waters and the mechanisms by which they impact habitats in order to determine potential restoration pathways. An understanding of their geographical distribution is critical for any local assessment of degradation, as well as for planning conservation and restoration actions. This information would ideally be in the form of maps, which: (a) compile single or multiple activities and pressures over broad scales, integrating and visualizing available data and allowing direct identification of aggregations as well as gaps and (b) may be overlaid with habitat maps (or any other map layer containing additional information), thus combining different data levels and producing new information to be used for example when implementing EU policies. The deliverable also documents typical example habitat case studies, the prominent impacts and consequences of activities and pressures towards the identification of possible restoration or mitigation actions. Finally the deliverable discusses pressures, assessments, marine spatial planning and blue growth potential. Activities and pressures are used in a strict sense, where marine activities are undertaken to satisfy the needs of societal drivers (e.g. aquaculture or tourism) and pressures are considered to be the mechanism through which an activity has an actual or potential effect on any part of the ecosystem (e.g. for demersal trawling activity, one pressure would be abrasion of the seabed). Habitats are addressed using a nested approach from large-scale geological features (e.g. shallow soft bottoms) to species-characterised habitats (e.g. Posidonia meadows) because of the way they are referred to in current policy documents which lack standard and precise definitions

A successful non-native predator, round goby, in the Baltic Sea: generalist feeding strategy, diverse diet and high prey consumption

The round goby Neogobius melanostomus has successfully invaded much of the Baltic Sea. However, very little is known about the feeding habits of the species in this newly invaded environment. Our laboratory experiment showed that the round goby is able to effectively consume a diverse variety of prey when given the choice between dominant benthic invertebrates: bivalves (Macoma balthica, Mytilus trossulus, Cerastoderma glaucum) and amphipods (Gammarus spp.). In contrast consumption of the gastropod (Theodoxus fluviatilis) was very low in all provided combinations. Nevertheless, the round goby had no statistically significant preference towards any of the prey taxa. The round goby exhibited size-specific consumption of M.trossulus, with smaller individuals being consumed at least 25% more than larger size classes. In addition elevated prey density resulted in higher consumption of prey by the fish. The broad diet suggests that shifting densities of benthic invertebrate prey has little influence on the further dispersal of the round goby in the Baltic Sea as the species is potentially able to switch between several native invertebrate taxa. This opportunistic feeding behaviour has likely favoured this invasion and ensured success of the species in the invaded ecosystem

Realized niche width of a brackish water submerged aquatic vegetation under current environmental conditions and projected influences of climate change

Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used to relate the cover of submerged aquatic vegetation to the abiotic environment in the brackish Baltic Sea. The analyses showed that the majority of the studied submerged aquatic species are most sensitive to changes in water temperature, current velocity and winter ice scour. Surprisingly, water salinity, turbidity and eutrophication have little impact on the distributional pattern of the studied biota. Both small and large scale environmental variability contributes to the variability of submerged aquatic vegetation. When modelling species distribution under the projected influences of climate change, all of the studied submerged aquatic species appear to be very resilient to a broad range of environmental perturbation and biomass gains are expected when seawater temperature increases. This is mainly because vegetation develops faster in spring and has a longer growing season under the projected climate change scenario

Laboratory analysis of the habitat occupancy of the crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii (Gould) in an invaded ecosystem: The north-eastern Baltic Sea

The Harris mud crab (Rhithropanopeus harrisii) arrived to the Baltic Sea in 1936. It was not until the late 2000es when the species considerably expanded its distribution area towards the northern Baltic Sea and formed a viable and expanding population. This introduction represents an appearance of a completely new function, as such larger epibenthic predators were previously missing from north-eastern Baltic Sea. In order to assess potential impacts of the crab to the invaded ecosystem, knowledge of the crab habitat preferences is required. This study experimentally evaluated the habitat occupancy of the Harris mud crab. The crab stayed more in vegetated boulders compared to unvegetated boulders or sandy habitats. There was an interactive effect between the presence of prey and crab population density with prey availability increasing the crab's affinity towards less favored habitats when population densities were low. Increased aggression between crab individuals increased their affinity towards otherwise less occupied habitats. Less favored habitats were typically inhabited by smaller individuals and presence of prey increased occupancy of some habitats for larger crabs. The experiment demonstrated that the crab may inhabit a large variety of habitats with stronger affinity towards boulder fields covered with the brown macroalga Fucus vesiculosus. This implies stronger impact of crab in such habitats in the invaded ecosystem

Introduction of a functionally novel consumer to a low diversity system: Effects of the mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii on meiobenthos

The Harris mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii recently expanded into much of the Baltic Sea. This invasion is expected to have significant effects on the structure and functioning of benthic ecosystems due to the lack of native crabs. Habitat type potentially modulates the effects as crabs are expected to behave differently in different habitats. In this study we experimentally evaluated the effect of R. harrisii on the species composition and dominance structure of shallow water meiobenthos within common habitat types of the north-eastern Baltic Sea. Among the studied environmental variables R. harrisii had by far the strongest effects on meiobenthos. The effects of R. harrisii varied among different habitats with the crab mostly modifying taxonomic composition and species abundances of meiobenthic communities on unvegetated soft bottom sediments. Our experiment also showed that boulders provided shelter for R. harrisii and thereby reduced their burrowing activity and effects on the adjacent soft bottom meiobenthos