Local site effects in Ataköy, Istanbul, Turkey, due to a future large earthquake in the Marmara Sea

Since the 1999 Izmit and Düzce earthquakes in northwest Turkey, many seismic hazard studies have focused on the city of Istanbul. An important issue in this respect is local site effects: strong amplifications are expected at a number of locations due to the local geological conditions. In this study we estimate the local site effects in the Ataköy area (southwestern Istanbul) by applying several techniques using synthetic data (hybrid 3-D modelling and 1-D modelling) and comparing to empirical data. We apply a hybrid 3-D finite-difference method that combines a complex source and wave propagation for a regional 1-D velocity model with site effects calculated for a local 3-D velocity structure. The local velocity model is built from geological, geotechnical and geomorphological data. The results indicate that strongest spectral amplifications (SA) in the Ataköy area occur around 1 Hz and that amplification levels are largest for alluvial sites where SA reaching a factor of 1.5-2 can be expected in the case of a large earthquake. We also compare our results to H/V (horizontal to vertical component of the recorded signal) spectral ratios calculated for microtremor data recorded at 30 sites as well as to ambient noise synthetics simulated using a 1-D approach. Because the applied methods complement each other, they provide comprehensive and reliable information about the local site effects in Ataköy. Added to that, our results have significant implications for the southwestern parts of Istanbul built on similar geological formations, for which, therefore, similar SA levels are expecte

The earthquake of 250 a.d. in Augusta Raurica, A real event with a 3D site-effect?

The Roman city Augusta Raurica is located East of Basel, Switzerland. One important topic of the city's history concerns the hypothesis of an earthquake striking the city in the middle of the third century a.d. This idea had been formulated according to archaeological features and findings, but had not been tested so far. A selection of the archaeological features were reviewed and dated in order to test the hypothesis of a single event. However, archaeological investigations do not draw a conclusive picture; it could not be proven that all features of possible destruction date to the same event. Detailed seismological investigations were performed. These included geological and geotechnical mapping of the unconsolidated sediments. Important parameters such as the thickness and composition of the unconsolidated sediments, the terrain topography and the topography of the bedrock surface were mapped. Ambient vibration H/V measurements provided the fundamental frequency of resonance for the unconsolidated sediments. The velocity of shear waves traveling through sediments is the controlling parameter for amplification of seismic waves. This material property is estimated using the relation between the ellipticity of the fundamental mode Rayleigh wave and the H/V curve. From all information we compiled a three-dimensional model of the surface geology. This model is used to simulate earthquake ground motion and amplification effects in the city, and to map the variability of the amplification. In the part of the city where possible earthquake damage was recognized, amplification occurs in the frequency band of building resonance (2-8Hz). In the other part of the city amplification occurs much above the building's resonance. From 1D modelling we estimate a difference in spectral amplification of about a factor of 2.5 to 3 between the two parts of the city. This corresponds approximately to a difference in macroseismic intensity of one unit. 3D modelling showed a large variability of ground motion within very close distance in the part of the city where possible earthquake damage was recognized. The maximum amplification reaches values up to a factor of nine, which is due to 3D effects and the choice of using vertically incident waves. Finally, all paleoseismological findings in the area of Basel were reviewed in order to find indications of a large event in the time-period of interest. Paleoseismological findings provide no hints to a large earthquake in the third century. If we assume that an earthquake caused at least part of the identified damage in Augusta Raurica, we have to assign to this event a magnitude Mw of about 6.0 or even lower, that is much smaller than the value of 6.9 that is actually in the Swiss earthquake catalogue. The earthquake source of this event must then be very close to the site of Augusta Raurica and a strong site-effect occurred in one part of the cit

Hybrid modeling of seismic waves

Available from STL Prague, CZ / NTK - National Technical LibrarySIGLECZCzech Republi

Modelling the seismic response of the Mýtina maar volcanic structure

Abstract In this study, we determine the properties of the maar volcanic structure using ambient vibration analysis. We performed several ambient vibrations surveys at Mýtina maar (West-Bohemia, Czechia) to map amplification by site-to-reference spectral ratios and to estimate average shear wave velocities by array methods. As the maar diatreme is formed by a deep concave body of broken rock, strong 3D resonances develop. The site-to-reference amplification factors reach a value of 20 in the central part of the maar. Using the noise data, we demonstrate possibility of mapping the lateral dimensions of the maar infills by ambient noise measurements. To understand these observations, we developed a simplified 3D viscoelastic velocity model and simulated synthetic ambient vibrations by the finite difference method. The simulated response fitted both, measured fundamental frequencies and the amplification levels. The maximum depth of the crater was estimated to be at least 800 m. Graphical Abstrac

Environmental Modelling of Forest Vegetation Zones as A Support Tool for Sustainable Management of Central European Spruce Forests

The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems may manifest itself by a shift in forest vegetation zones in the landscape northward and into higher elevations. Studies of climate change-induced vegetation zone shifts in forest ecosystems have been relatively rare in the context of European temperate zone (apart from Alpine regions). The presented paper outlines the results of a biogeographic model of climatic conditions in forest vegetation zones applied in the Central European landscape. The objective of the study is a prediction of future silvicultural conditions for the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), which is one of the principal tree species within European forests. The model is based on a general environmental dependence of forest vegetation zones on the long-term effect of altitudinal and exposure climates defined by the mean and extreme air temperatures and the amount and distribution of atmospheric precipitation. The climatological data for the model were provided by a validated regional climate database for 2010 – 2090 according to the SRES A1B scenario, bound to specific geo-referenced points in the landscape. The geobiocoenological data in the model were provided by the Biogeography Register database which contains ecological data on the landscape bound to individual cadastres of the entire Czech Republic. The biogeographic model applies special programs (the FORTRAN programming language) in the environment of geographic information systems. The model outputs can be clearly graphically visualized as scenarios of predicted future climatic conditions of landscape vegetation zones. Modelling of the regional scenario of changes in the climatic conditions of forest vegetation zones reveals that in the prediction period of 2070 and beyond, good and very good climatic conditions for the cultivation of forests with dominant Norway spruce will be found only in some parts of its today’s native range in forest vegetation zones 5 – 8. Based on the results provided by the regional scenario, the authors of this paper recommend fundamental reassessment of the national strategy of sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic, stipulating that the current practice of spruce cultivation be reduced only to areas specifically defined by the biogeographic model. The paper shows that biogeographic models based on the concept of vegetation zoning can be applied not only in regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape but also as support tools for the creation of strategies of sustainable forest management

Local site effects in Ataköy, Istanbul, Turkey, due to a future large earthquake in the Marmara Sea

ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246

Earthquakes in Switzerland and Surrounding Regions During 2003

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2003. During this period, 532 earthquakes and 118 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With 30 events with ML ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2003 was slightly above the average over the last 29 years. As in previous years, most of the seismic activity was concentrated in the Valais and in Graubünden. In addition, several earthquakes occurred along the northern front of the Alps. The strongest event, with ML 4.0 and epicentral intensity V, occurred in the area of Urnerboden, on the border between the cantons Uri and Glarus. Two earthquakes with ML 3.9 occurred in the Valais near the town of Salgesch and south of the Sanetsch Pass. In Graubünden, the Sertig valley south of Davos was the site of a sequence of 51 earthquakes that included three events with magnitudes between ML 3.6 and 3.9