William Niskanen:public choice and policy

Abstract. This study seeks to evaluate the work and legacy of William A. Niskanen, a foundational economist of Public Choice literature on bureaucracy and political thinker, as well as to investigate the academic literature on Public Choice Theory. What topics are studied by the literature currently and what future topics could prove fruitful? This is achieved with a literature review of Niskanen’s work and of related literature. The study finds that Niskanen’s original model of budget maximizing bureaucrat was altered in favour of discretionary budget maximization. Niskanen himself accepted this change in his later articles. Empirical research also shows that Niskanen’s model tends to be overly pessimistic about the outcomes of bureaucratic supply. Some empirical studies question the validity of the model, but others find evidence of the model working in some institutional contexts. Niskanen’s work is still considered to be foundational in public choice theory literature on bureaucracy. In addition, the study finds Niskanen’s studies on voting theory has provided better insight on the political divide in the United States. Later studies on political attitudes have shown that this division has continued to grow but did not evaluate Niskanen’s model’s validity. Niskanen’s career in the government was also considerable. Although he described his role to be a “minor actor”, he did have major role as the acting chair of Council of Economic Advisors in the end of his career. As a public servant he served the administrations of both Democratic and Republican presidents. Although not an academic study, Niskanen’s critique of Reagan’s administration in his book Reaganomics is an insightful look into the functioning of the United States federal government, and the reasons for failures and successes of Reagan’s policies. Niskanen did continue his academic work after the career as a public servant. His articles during his presidency in Cato Institute cover a broad range of subjects from bureaucracy and voting theory to optimal tax models and constitutional law. Niskanen remains highly sited author and his influence can be still seen in public choice literature. After his death Niskanen Center, a think tank named in his honour, further explores similar topics to its namesake. After Niskanen’s presidency, Cato Institute continues to be a major institution in the United States political sphere

Radio-Frequency Single-Electron Refrigerator

We propose a cyclic refrigeration principle based on mesoscopic electron transport. Synchronous sequential tunnelling of electrons in a Coulomb-blockaded device, a normal metal-superconductor single-electron box, results in a cooling power of $\sim k_{\rm B}T \times f$ at temperature $T$ over a wide range of cycle frequencies $f$. Electrostatic work, done by the gate voltage source, removes heat from the Coulomb island with an efficiency of $\sim k_{\rm B}T/\Delta$, where $\Delta$ is the superconducting gap. The performance is not affected significantly by non-idealities, for instance by offset charges. We propose ways of characterizing the system and of its practical implementation.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; corrected typos, language improve

The role of exchangeability in causal inference

The notion of exchangeability has been recognized in the causal inference literature in various guises, but only rarely in the original Bayesian meaning as a symmetry property between individual units in statistical inference. Since the latter is a standard ingredient in Bayesian inference, we argue that in Bayesian causal inference it is natural to link the causal model, including the notion of confounding and definition of causal contrasts of interest, to the concept of exchangeability. Here we relate the Bayesian notion of exchangeability to alternative conditions for unconfounded inferences, commonly stated using potential outcome variables, and define causal contrasts in the presence of exchangeability in terms of limits of posterior predictive expectations for further exchangeable units. We demonstrate that this reasoning also carries over to longitudinal settings where parametric inferences are susceptible to the so-called null paradox. We interpret the paradox in terms of an exchangeability assumption made on too coarse a scale

Alkoholilainsäädäntö ja sen vaikutukset kulutuskäyttäytymiseen Suomessa

Tiivistelmä. Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tavoitteena on tutustua Suomen alkoholipolitiikan historiaan, sen seurauksiin, sekä akateemisen kirjallisuuden avulla pohtia kuinka vuoden 2017 alkoholilakiuudistus saattaisi vaikuttaa alkoholin kulutukseen Suomessa. Tutkielma perustelee tarpeellisuuttaan aihepiirin ajankohtaisuudella. Sipilän hallituksen uudistaessa alkoholilakia, keskustelu alkoholilain vaikutuksista kävi vilkkaana. Kuitenkaan akateemiseen kirjallisuuteen ei juurikaan viitattu lehdistön tai yhteiskunnallisten vaikuttajien toimesta. Alkoholiveron nostamista on esitetty yhdeksi Rinteen hallituksen uudistukseksi, joiden tavoitteena on tasapainottaa valtion talous. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään kirjallisuuskatsausta, jolla pyritään tuomaan kattava kuva poliittisista työkaluista, joilla vaikuttaa kulutuskäyttäytymiseen. Lähteenä käytettiin akateemisia lähteitä sekä ei-vertaisarvioitua kirjallisuutta muun muassa alkoholipolitiikan historiasta. Tutkielmassa selvisi eri alkoholituoteryhmien kulutuskäyttäytymisen eroavan muun muassa hintajoustavuudeltaan. Verotus ja saatavuuden rajoittaminen osoittautuvat tehokkaiksi keinoiksi vaikuttaa kulutukseen, joskin näilläkin tavoilla on rajoitteensa, kuten oluen kysynnän hintajousto ja kieltolain menestys osoittavat. Terveysvalistus on osoittautunut tehokkaaksi tupakan kulutuksen vähentämisessä mutta akateeminen kirjallisuus alkoholin osalta ei tue tuloksen yleisteltävyyttä alkoholituotteille. Jatkotutkimukset eri työkalujen vaikutuksesta osana laaja-alaisia alkoholilakiuudistuksia tarvitaan, jotta esimerkiksi verotuksen vaikutus voidaan eritellä muista samaan aikaan aloitetuista toimista. Lisätutkimusta kieltojen ja rajoitusten vaikutuksista kuluttajien näkemyksiin addiktoivien tuotteiden käytöstä tarvitaan, sillä näiden toimien nettovaikutus yhteiskunnalle saattaa olla negatiivinen niiden luoman laittomien markkinoiden vuoksi. Myös riippuvuuden aiheuttaman kulutuskäyttäytymisen lisätutkimusta tarvitaan, jotta käyttäytymisen mallinnusta voitaisiin tehostaa ja toimia riippuvuuden lopettamiseen kohdentaa. On tärkeä huomata, että riippuvuus voi syntyä eri tavoin esimerkiksi sosiaalisista syistä tai addiktoivien kemikaalien vaikutuksesta

Al-neal Degrades Al2O3 Passivation of Silicon Surface

Atomic layer deposited (ALD) aluminum oxide (Al2O3) has emerged as a useful material for silicon devices due to its capability for effective surface passivation and ability to generate p(+) region underneath the oxide as active or passive component in semiconductor devices. However, it is uncertain how Al2O3 films tolerate the so-called Al-neal treatment that is a necessary process step in devices that also contain silicon dioxide (SiO2) passivation layers. Herein, it is reported that the Al-neal process is harmful for the passivation performance of Al2O3 causing over eightfold increase in surface recombination velocity (SRV) (from 0.9 to 7.3 cm s(-1)). Interestingly, it is also observed that the stage at which the so-called activation of Al2O3 passivation is performed impacts the final degradation strength. The best result is obtained when the activation step is done at the end of the process together with the Al-neal thermal treatment, which results in SRV of 1.7 cm s(-1). The results correlate well with the measured interface defect density, indicating that the Al-neal affects defects at the Si/SiO x /Al2O3 interface. The root causes for the defect reactions are discussed and possible reasons for the observed phenomena are suggested.Peer reviewe

Analysis of sub-3 nm particle growth in connection with sulfuric acid in a boreal forest

We analyzed nanoparticle growth during new-particle-formation events based on ten years of measurements carried out at a boreal forest site in Hyytiala, Finland, concentrating on the sub-3 nm particles and the role of sulfuric acid in their growth. Growth rates of 1.5-3 nm diameter particles were determined from ion spectrometer measurements and compared with parameterized sulfuric acid concentration and other atmospheric parameters. The calculated growth rates from sulfuric acid condensation were on average 7.4% of the observed growth rates and the two did not correlate. These suggest that neither sulfuric acid monomer condensation nor coagulation of small sulfuric acid clusters was the primary growth mechanism in these atmospheric conditions. Also no clear sign of organic condensation being the single main growth mechanism was seen. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that several factors have comparative roles in the sub-3 nm growth.Peer reviewe

Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments

Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses.Peer reviewe