Toward Guidelines for Harvest Intensities and Regeneration Targets with Minimal Impact Upon Retained Genetic Diversity in Central Hardwood Tree Species

There is an urgent need for a coordinated and systematic approach to the in situ conservation of the genetic resources of commercially important forest tree species in the Central Hardwoods. Effective in situ management of genetic resources would benefit from clear guidelines for how many adult trees can be harvested with minimal impact on allelic diversity. We are constructing a computer model for this purpose, and present preliminary results based upon replicate harvests of a virtual forest stand consisting of 200 adult trees. Our model explores how much regeneration is needed so that there is no more than a 10 percent risk of retaining less than 90 percent of the original allelic diversity. In the absence of regeneration, up to 55 percent of the adult trees can be harvested without exceeding the 10 percent risk level. At higher harvest intensities, locally-derived regeneration is needed to replace the alleles removed from the adult population. When all 200 adult trees are harvested, the 10 percent risk level is not exceeded if there are at least 116 regenerants, provided that these are derived from pre-harvest random mating among the adults. In the presence of substantial pollen flow from a genetically differentiated outside pollen source (e.g., 10-20 percent pollen flow), the minimum amount of regeneration needed is reduced. This indicates that outside pollen can be more efficient, relative to pollen from within the stand, at replacing alleles lost from the adult population

Early symptoms and sensations as predictors of lung cancer: a machine learning multivariate model.

The aim of this study was to identify a combination of early predictive symptoms/sensations attributable to primary lung cancer (LC). An interactive e-questionnaire comprised of pre-diagnostic descriptors of first symptoms/sensations was administered to patients referred for suspected LC. Respondents were included in the present analysis only if they later received a primary LC diagnosis or had no cancer; and inclusion of each descriptor required ≥4 observations. Fully-completed data from 506/670 individuals later diagnosed with primary LC (n = 311) or no cancer (n = 195) were modelled with orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS). After analysing 145/285 descriptors, meeting inclusion criteria, through randomised seven-fold cross-validation (six-fold training set: n = 433; test set: n = 73), 63 provided best LC prediction. The most-significant LC-positive descriptors included a cough that varied over the day, back pain/aches/discomfort, early satiety, appetite loss, and having less strength. Upon combining the descriptors with the background variables current smoking, a cold/flu or pneumonia within the past two years, female sex, older age, a history of COPD (positive LC-association); antibiotics within the past two years, and a history of pneumonia (negative LC-association); the resulting 70-variable model had accurate cross-validated test set performance: area under the ROC curve = 0.767 (descriptors only: 0.736/background predictors only: 0.652), sensitivity = 84.8% (73.9/76.1%, respectively), specificity = 55.6% (66.7/51.9%, respectively). In conclusion, accurate prediction of LC was found through 63 early symptoms/sensations and seven background factors. Further research and precision in this model may lead to a tool for referral and LC diagnostic decision-making

Roads do not increase carrion use by a vertebrate scavenging community

Wildlife-vehicle collisions introduce a considerable amount of carrion into the environment, but scavenger use of this resource has not been extensively investigated. Scavengers may use roads for reliable foraging opportunities, but might also use roads for other purposes and encounter carrion opportunistically. We examined scavenging of carrion along linear features by placing 52 rabbit carcasses in each of three treatments in forested habitat during winter (Dec 2016-Mar 2017) in South Carolina, USA: roads, power line clearings (linear feature with fewer carcasses than roads due to lack of road kill), and forest interior. We used motion-activated cameras to compare arrival times and presence of vertebrate scavengers among treatments. There was no difference in proportion of carcasses scavenged or scavenger arrival time across treatments. No species arrived at roads quicker than other treatments. Turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) and coyotes (Canis latrans) scavenged equally across treatments, whereas gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) scavenged along roads and power lines, but not in forests. We suggest that scavenger use of carrion near roads at this location during winter relates to factors other than carrion availability. Because some scavengers readily consumed carrion on roads, this resource has the potential to influence the ecology of these species

Different histories but similar genetic diversity and structure for black walnut in Indiana and Missouri

—Missouri and Indiana have markedly different histories of glaciation and recolonization by forest trees. These states also differ in land use patterns and degree of anthropogenic landscape change such as forest fragmentation. To determine the overall effects of these and other demographic differences on the levels of genetic diversity and structure in black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) more than 550 total black walnut trees from nine populations in Indiana and 10 in Missouri were sampled and analyzed using 12 nuclear microsatellite loci. Although genetic diversity parameters such as allelic richness and expected heterozygosity were high overall, they varied little among populations and their mean values for the two states were not significantly different. Pairwise genetic distance values between all population pairs ranged from 0.012-0.159, but no significant pattern of isolation by distance was detected. The estimate of the degree of genetic differentiation between states (FPT = 0.0009) was very small and not significant, indicating that differences between states explained an inconsequential portion of the total variance. The observed low levels of local and regional genetic structure indicate that high levels of pollen flow have buffered black walnut from the genetic consequences of founder effects and genetic drift in both geologic and recent time scales

A prospective study of asthma incidence and its predictors: the RHINE study.

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional LinkThe objective of this longitudinal study was to estimate the incidence rate of asthma, and to compare the incidence between subjects with or without baseline reporting of certain respiratory symptoms. A follow-up of the random population samples in the European Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Estonia was conducted in 1999-2001, in a population aged 30-54 yrs at follow-up (n=14,731). Asthma was defined as reporting either asthma or physician-diagnosed asthma, and a reported year when asthma symptoms were first noticed. Incidence rates, incidence rate ratios and hazard ratios were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. The incidence rate of asthma was 2.2 cases per 1,000 person-yrs. The incidence was higher among females (2.9 cases.1,000 person-yrs(-1)) than among males (1.5 cases.1,000 person-yrs(-1)). When subjects with baseline reporting of wheezing were excluded, the incidence rate decreased to 1.7 cases.1,000 person-yrs(-1), with a further decrease to 1.5 cases.1,000 person-yrs(-1) after exclusion of subjects with wheezing, nocturnal dyspnoea, chest tightness and cough. There was a strong association between onset of asthma and wheezing at baseline. In this prospective, population-based study, the incidence rate of asthma in the whole population sample ranged 1.5-2.2.1,000 person-yrs(-1), with a higher incidence range among females. The incidence was dependent on the extent to which subjects with respiratory symptoms were excluded from follow-up. Hence, for comparability between studies, the exclusion criteria in the follow-up population must be stated

Effective Dose and Persistence of Rhodamine-B in Wild Pig Vibrissae

As a result of substantial ecological and economic damage attributed to wild pigs (Sus scrofa), there is international interest in using pharmaceutical baits to control populations. To assess the efficacy and specificity of baiting programs, chemical biomarkers can be used to evaluate uptake of pharmaceutical baits. Rhodamine B (RB) is known to be an effective biomarker in wild pigs. However, significant data gaps exist regarding the minimum effective dosage and persistence of RB in wild pigs. We used a controlled doubleblind study experiment conducted in spring of 2014 on the Savannah River Site, Aiken, South Carolina, USA, wherein we administered a one-time dose of RB at 3 treatment levels (5 mg/kg, 15mg/kg, or 30 mg/kg) to 15 captive pigs, with 5 pigs/treatment group to investigate persistence of RB. Facial vibrissae were collected pre-RB ingestion as a control and every 2 weeks post-RB ingestion for 12 weeks. We examined samples for RB presence and used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to determine the influence of treatment dose on persistence of RB. Additionally, we measured distance moved by the RB mark away from the vibrissae root and used a GLMM to assess movement rates of RB bands along growing vibrissae. We found consistently greater persistence of RB in the 15- and 30-mg/kg treatments across the sampling period. A significant, positive movement trend in RB bands was observed within the 15mg/kg and 30 mg/kg groups. Based on our results, a 15 mg/kg dosage can be considered a minimum effective dose for wild pigs and will reliably produce a detectable RB mark up to and likely beyond 12 weeks after ingestion

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand

Spatial ecology of translocated raccoons

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are routinely translocated both legally and illegally to mitigate conflicts with humans, which has contributed to the spread of rabies virus across eastern North America. The movement behavior of translocated raccoons has important ramifications for disease transmission yet remains understudied and poorly quantified. To examine the spatial ecology of raccoons following experimental translocation, we performed reciprocal 16 km-distance translocations of 30 raccoons between habitats of high and low raccoon density (bottomland hardwood and upland pine, respectively) across the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, USA (2018–2019). Translocation influenced patterns of raccoon space use, with translocated animals exhibiting a 13-fold increase in 95% utilization distributions (UDs) post- compared to pre-translocation (mean 95% UD 35.8 ± 36.1 km2 vs 1.96 ± 1.17 km2). Raccoons originating from upland pine habitats consistently had greater space use and larger nightly movement distances post-translocation compared to raccoons moved from bottomland hardwood habitats, whereas these differences were generally not observed prior to translocation. Estimated home ranges of male raccoons were twice the area as estimated for female raccoons, on average, and this pattern was not affected by translocation. After a transient period lasting on average 36.5 days (SD = 30.0, range = 3.25–92.8), raccoons often resumed preexperiment movement behavior, with 95% UD sizes not different from those prior to translocation (mean = 2.27 ± 1.63km2). Most animals established new home ranges after translocation, whereas three raccoons moved \u3e 16 km from their release point back to the original capture location. Four animals crossed a 100-m wide river within the SRS post-translocation, but this behavior was not documented among collared raccoons prior to translocation. Large increases in space use combined with the crossing of geographic barriers such as rivers may lead to elevated contact rates with conspecifics, which can heighten disease transmission risks following translocation. These results provide additional insights regarding the potential impacts of raccoon translocation towards population level risks of rabies outbreaks and underscore the need to discourage mesocarnivore translocations to prevent further spread of wildlife rabies

Interspecific oral rabies vaccine bait competition in the Southeast United States

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) has coordinated the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) to control the spread of raccoon rabies virus variant west of the Appalachian Mountains since 1997. Working with state and local partners, the NRMP deploys ORV baits containing a rabies vaccine, primarily targeting raccoon populations (Procyon lotor). Bait competition between raccoons and non-target species may limit the effectiveness of ORV programs, but the extent of bait competition remains poorly quantified, particularly in the southeastern United States. We placed placebo ORV baits in bottomland hardwood (n = 637 baits) and upland pine (n = 681 baits) habitats in South Carolina, USA during August- December 2019 and used remote cameras to examine bait competition between raccoons and non-target species. The estimated proportion of bait consumed by raccoons was 18.8 ± 2.1% in bottomland hardwood and 11.6 ± 2.1% in upland pine habitats. Vertebrate competition appeared to have a minimal effect on raccoon uptake as estimated consumption did not exceed 5% for any species or 8% of bait uptake events cumulatively. We estimated that raccoons were the primary consumer of baits in bottomland hardwood, whereas invertebrates were the primary consumer in upland pine (26.7 ± 1.3% of baits). Our results indicate a need to closely consider the effects of invertebrates on bait consumption to minimize their potential impact on ORV bait uptake by target species. Uptake probabilities by raccoons were relatively low but not primarily driven by competition with vertebrates. As such, strategies to increase the specificity of raccoon uptake may be needed to enhance the effectiveness of ORV baiting programs