Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models

Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF) in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors) collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early assessment of the risk of SNB, facilitating sound disease management decisions prior to planting of wheat

Cultural and Genetic Approaches to Manage Aflatoxin Contamination: Recent Insights Provide Opportunities for Improved Control.

Aspergillus flavus is a morphologically complex species that can produce the group of polyketide derived carcinogenic and mutagenic secondary metabolites, aflatoxins, as well as other secondary metabolites such as cyclopiazonic acid and aflatrem. Aflatoxin causes aflatoxicosis when aflatoxins are ingested through contaminated food and feed. In addition, aflatoxin contamination is a major problem, from both an economic and health aspect, in developing countries, especially Asia and Africa, where cereals and peanuts are important food crops. Earlier measures for control of A. flavus infection and consequent aflatoxin contamination centered on creating unfavorable environments for the pathogen and destroying contaminated products. While development of atoxigenic (nonaflatoxin producing) strains of A. flavus as viable commercial biocontrol agents has marked a unique advance for control of aflatoxin contamination, particularly in Africa, new insights into the biology and sexuality of A. flavus are now providing opportunities to design improved atoxigenic strains for sustainable biological control of aflatoxin. Further, progress in the use of molecular technologies such as incorporation of antifungal genes in the host and host-induced gene silencing, is providing knowledge that could be harnessed to develop germplasm that is resistant to infection by A. flavus and aflatoxin contamination. This review summarizes the substantial progress that has been made to understand the biology of A. flavus and mitigate aflatoxin contamination with emphasis on maize. Concepts developed to date can provide a basis for future research efforts on the sustainable management of aflatoxin contamination

Epidemiology and Population Biology of Pseudoperonospora cubensis: A Model System for Management of Downy Mildews

The resurgence of cucurbit downy mildew has dramatically influenced production of cucurbits and disease management systems at multiple scales. Long-distance dispersal is a fundamental aspect of epidemic development that influences the timing and extent of outbreaks of cucurbit downy mildew. The dispersal potential of Pseudoperonospora cubensis appears to be limited primarily by sporangia production in source fields and availability of susceptible hosts and less by sporangia survival during transport. Uncertainty remains regarding the role of locally produced inoculum in disease outbreaks, but evidence suggests multiple sources of primary inoculum could be important. Understanding pathogen diversity and population differentiation is a critical aspect of disease management and an active research area. Underpinning advances in our understanding of pathogen biology and disease management has been the research capacity and coordination of stakeholders, scientists, and extension personnel. Concepts and approaches developed in this pathosystem can guide future efforts when responding to incursions of new or reemerging downy mildew pathogens.Keywords: disease management, mating type, pathotype, Bayesian prediction, risk assessment, genomic

"Jumping Jack": Genomic Microsatellites Underscore the Distinctiveness of Closely Related Pseudoperonospora cubensis and Pseudoperonospora humuli and Provide New Insights Into Their Evolutionary Past

Downy mildews caused by obligate biotrophic oomycetes result in severe crop losses worldwide. Among these pathogens, Pseudoperonospora cubensis and P. humuli, two closely related oomycetes, adversely affect cucurbits and hop, respectively. Discordant hypotheses concerning their taxonomic relationships have been proposed based on host-pathogen interactions and specificity evidence and gene sequences of a few individuals, but population genetics evidence supporting these scenarios is missing. Furthermore, nuclear and mitochondrial regions of both pathogens have been analyzed using microsatellites and phylogenetically informative molecular markers, but extensive comparative population genetics research has not been done. Here, we genotyped 138 current and historical herbarium specimens of those two taxa using microsatellites (SSRs). Our goals were to assess genetic diversity and spatial distribution, to infer the evolutionary history of P. cubensis and P. humuli, and to visualize genome-scale organizational relationship between both pathogens. High genetic diversity, modest gene flow, and presence of population structure, particularly in P. cubensis, were observed. When tested for cross-amplification, 20 out of 27 P. cubensis-derived gSSRs cross-amplified DNA of P. humuli individuals, but few amplified DNA of downy mildew pathogens from related genera. Collectively, our analyses provided a definite argument for the hypothesis that both pathogens are distinct species, and suggested further speciation in the P. cubensis complex

Human total, basal and activity energy expenditures are independent of ambient environmental temperature

Acknowledgments The DLW database, which can be found at https://www.dlwdatabase.org, is hosted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and generously supported by Taiyo Nippon Sanso and SERCON . We are grateful to the IAEA and these companies for their support. XYZ was supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant CAS 153E11KYSB20190045 to J.R.S.), and the database was also supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant BCS-1824466 to H.P.). The funders played no role in the content of this manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Total energy expenditure is repeatable in adults but not associated with short-term changes in body composition

Low total energy expenditure (TEE, MJ/d) has been a hypothesized risk factor for weight gain, but repeatability of TEE, a critical variable in longitudinal studies of energy balance, is understudied. We examine repeated doubly labeled water (DLW) measurements of TEE in 348 adults and 47 children from the IAEA DLW Database (mean ± SD time interval: 1.9 ± 2.9 y) to assess repeatability of TEE, and to examine if TEE adjusted for age, sex, fat-free mass, and fat mass is associated with changes in weight or body composition. Here, we report that repeatability of TEE is high for adults, but not children. Bivariate Bayesian mixed models show no among or within-individual correlation between body composition (fat mass or percentage) and unadjusted TEE in adults. For adults aged 20-60 y (N = 267; time interval: 7.4 ± 12.2 weeks), increases in adjusted TEE are associated with weight gain but not with changes in body composition; results are similar for subjects with intervals >4 weeks (N = 53; 29.1 ± 12.8 weeks). This suggests low TEE is not a risk factor for, and high TEE is not protective against, weight or body fat gain over the time intervals tested

Community acceptability of use of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria by community health workers in Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many malarious countries plan to introduce artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) at community level using community health workers (CHWs) for treatment of uncomplicated malaria. Use of ACT with reliance on presumptive diagnosis may lead to excessive use, increased costs and rise of drug resistance. Use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) could address these challenges but only if the communities will accept their use by CHWs. This study assessed community acceptability of the use of RDTs by Ugandan CHWs, locally referred to as community medicine distributors (CMDs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted in Iganga district using 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) with CMDs and caregivers of children under five years, and 10 key informant interviews (KIIs) with health workers and community leaders. Pre-designed FGD and KII guides were used to collect data. Manifest content analysis was used to explore issues of trust and confidence in CMDs, stigma associated with drawing blood from children, community willingness for CMDs to use RDTs, and challenges anticipated to be faced by the CMDs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CMDs are trusted by their communities because of their commitment to voluntary service, access, and the perceived effectiveness of anti-malarial drugs they provide. Some community members expressed fear that the blood collected could be used for HIV testing, the procedure could infect children with HIV, and the blood samples could be used for witchcraft. Education level of CMDs is important in their acceptability by the community, who welcome the use of RDTs given that the CMDs are trained and supported. Anticipated challenges for CMDs included transport for patient follow-up and picking supplies, adults demanding to be tested, and caregivers insisting their children be treated instead of being referred.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of RDTs by CMDs is likely to be acceptable by community members given that CMDs are properly trained, and receive regular technical supervision and logistical support. A well-designed behaviour change communication strategy is needed to address the anticipated programmatic challenges as well as community fears and stigma about drawing blood. Level of formal education may have to be a criterion for CMD selection into programmes deploying RDTs.</p

Variability in energy expenditure is much greater in males than females

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Greater male variability in daily energy expenditure develops through puberty

There is considerably greater variation in metabolic rates between men than between women, in terms of basal, activity and total (daily) energy expenditure (EE). One possible explanation is that EE is associated with male sexual characteristics (which are known to vary more than other traits) such as musculature and athletic capacity. Such traits might be predicted to be most prominent during periods of adolescence and young adulthood, when sexual behaviour develops and peaks. We tested this hypothesis on a large dataset by comparing the amount of male variation and female variation in total EE, activity EE and basal EE, at different life stages, along with several morphological traits: height, fat free mass and fat mass. Total EE, and to some degree also activity EE, exhibit considerable greater male variation (GMV) in young adults, and then a decrease in the degree of GMV in progressively older individuals. Arguably, basal EE, and also morphometrics, do not exhibit this pattern. These findings suggest that single male sexual characteristics may not exhibit peak GMV in young adulthood, however total and perhaps also activity EE, associated with many morphological and physiological traits combined, do exhibit GMV most prominently during the reproductive life stages

Variability in energy expenditure is much greater in males than females

In mammals, trait variation is often reported to be greater among males than females. However, to date, mainly only morphological traits have been studied. Energy expenditure represents the metabolic costs of multiple physical, physiological, and behavioral traits. Energy expenditure could exhibit particularly high greater male variation through a cumulative effect if those traits mostly exhibit greater male variation, or a lack of greater male variation if many of them do not. Sex differences in energy expenditure variation have been little explored. We analyzed a large database on energy expenditure in adult humans (1494 males and 3108 females) to investigate whether humans have evolved sex differences in the degree of interindividual variation in energy expenditure. We found that, even when statistically comparing males and females of the same age, height, and body composition, there is much more variation in total, activity, and basal energy expenditure among males. However, with aging, variation in total energy expenditure decreases, and because this happens more rapidly in males, the magnitude of greater male variation, though still large, is attenuated in older age groups. Considerably greater male variation in both total and activity energy expenditure could be explained by greater male variation in levels of daily activity. The considerably greater male variation in basal energy expenditure is remarkable and may be explained, at least in part, by greater male variation in the size of energy-demanding organs. If energy expenditure is a trait that is of indirect interest to females when choosing a sexual partner, this would suggest that energy expenditure is under sexual selection. However, we present a novel energetics model demonstrating that it is also possible that females have been under stabilizing selection pressure for an intermediate basal energy expenditure to maximize energy available for reproduction. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe