Integrating remote sensing datasets into ecological modelling: a Bayesian approach

Process-based models have been used to simulate 3-dimensional complexities of forest ecosystems and their temporal changes, but their extensive data requirement and complex parameterisation have often limited their use for practical management applications. Increasingly, information retrieved using remote sensing techniques can help in model parameterisation and data collection by providing spatially and temporally resolved forest information. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of Bayesian calibration for integrating such data sources to simulate forest production. As an example, we use the 3-PG model combined with hyperspectral, LiDAR, SAR and field-based data to simulate the growth of UK Corsican pine stands. Hyperspectral, LiDAR and SAR data are used to estimate LAI dynamics, tree height and above ground biomass, respectively, while the Bayesian calibration provides estimates of uncertainties to model parameters and outputs. The Bayesian calibration contrasts with goodness-of-fit approaches, which do not provide uncertainties to parameters and model outputs. Parameters and the data used in the calibration process are presented in the form of probability distributions, reflecting our degree of certainty about them. After the calibration, the distributions are updated. To approximate posterior distributions (of outputs and parameters), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach is used (25 000 steps). A sensitivity analysis is also conducted between parameters and outputs. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of a Bayesian framework for truly integrative work, both in the consideration of field-based and remotely sensed datasets available and in estimating parameter and model output uncertainties

Experimental and theoretical study of single iron particle combustion under low-oxygen dilution conditions

In the present study, a novel in situ particle sizing approach is proposed and used to measure the characteristic timescales of micron-sized iron particle combustion under low-oxygen (10–17 vol%) dilution conditions. The particle size is determined by probing the light emission intensity of a burning particle during melting, which is proportional to the cross-section area of the particle projected to the camera. Detailed descriptions of the calibration, validation, and characterization of the experimental method are elaborated. With systematic measurements, we obtain one-to-one correlations between combustion timescales and single particle diameters at various diluted oxygen concentrations. Furthermore, we formally derive a theoretical model for heterogeneous combustion of growing (iron) particles in the diffusion-limited regime. The model suggests that the diffusion-limited burn time scales with the initial particle diameter squared (i.e., a new, generalized d2-law). Owing to accounting for the particle growth, the newly derived model suggests a significantly (1.66 times) shorter combustion duration compared to the conventional d2-law for shrinking particle combustion. It turns out that the new model agrees well with the experiment. This agreement also suggests that under low-oxygen dilution conditions, the combustion regime of iron particles during the intensive burning stage (i.e., from ignition to the peak particle temperature) is limited by external oxygen diffusion.</p

Simulating impacts of climate and management on timothy growth in Northern countries

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Gastric Acid Suppressive Therapy and Community-Acquired Pneumonia, Etiology and Outcome

Background: Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an infection of the pulmonary parenchyma that can be caused by various microbial pathogens. Co-morbidity and medication are related to specific pathogens. Patients on gastric acid suppressive therapy have an increased risk to develop CAP. We aimed to assess whether there are specific pathogens independently associated with gastric acid suppressive therapy and its impact on infection severity. Methods: From December 2007 to January 2010, all subjects consulting the emergency care unit of a general hospital in the south of the Netherlands with a suspected CAP were prospectively registered. Each patient underwent chest radiography. Sputum, urine, nose swabs and blood samples were obtained for microbial culture, antigen detection and polymerase chain reaction techniques, respectively. To study the severity of CAP upon presentation, the validated CURB-65 score was calculated. Furthermore, we assessed hospital or intensive care admission, length of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality. We evaluated the association between use of acid suppressive therapy and microbial aetiology of CAP and severity of illness with logistic regression analysis. Results: The final cohort comprised 463 patients with CAP, defined as presence of infiltrate on chest radiography and/ or microbial aetiology. Overall 136 patients (29%) used acid suppressive therapy, mainly proton pump inhibitors (97%). Patients with acid suppressive therapy more frequently had an infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae (28% vs. 14%) and Haemophilus influenzae (10% vs. 6%), and less frequently with Coxiella burnetii (8% vs. 19%) or H1N1 influenza A virus (2% vs. 7%) in comparison to those without acid suppressive therapy. After adjustment for baseline differences, the risk of proton pump inhibitor users being infected with S. pneumonia was 2.18 times (95%Confidence Interval(CI): 1.2-3.6) higher compared to those not on acid suppressive therapy. Patients using more than one defined daily dose of a PPI had a 1.48-fold increased risk of a S. pneumoniae infection compared with patients using the defined daily dose (95%CI:1.1-2.0). No risk between PPI use and any other microbial pathogen was found. Patients with acid suppressive therapy had on average higher CURB-65 scores, longer hospital stay and subsequently a case fatality rate of 11% vs. 4% compared to those not using acid suppressive therapy. Conclusions. Proton pump inhibitor therapy predisposes with community acquired S. pneumoniae pneumonia, and was associated with higher morbidity

The origin of the runaway high-mass X-ray binary HD153919/4U1700-37

Based on its Hipparcos proper motion, we propose that the high-mass X-ray binary HD153919/4U1700-37 originates in the OB association Sco OB1. At a distance of 1.9 kpc the space velocity of 4U1700-37 with respect to Sco OB1 is 75 km/s. This runaway velocity indicates that the progenitor of the compact X-ray source lost about 7 Msun during the (assumed symmetric) supernova explosion. The system's kinematical age is about 2 +/- 0.5 million years which marks the date of the supernova explosion forming the compact object. The present age of Sco OB1 is <8 Myr; its suggested core, NGC 6231, seems to be somewhat younger (~5 Myr). If HD153919/4U1700-37 was born as a member of Sco OB1, this implies that the initially most massive star in the system terminated its evolution within 30 Msun. With these parameters the evolution of the binary system can be constrained.Comment: 6 pages, latex, 3 embedded ps figures, to appear in A&

Long-term Effect of Bariatric Surgery on the Use of Levothyroxine and Thyroid Levels

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of bariatric surgery on the defined daily dose of levothyroxine (DDD LT4), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and free thyroxine (fT4) in female patients with hypothyroidism until 48 months after surgery. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of hypothyroid patients who underwent bariatric surgery. Changes in DDD LT4, TSH, and fT4 over a 48 month period after surgery were analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients were included: 27 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), 6 sleeve gastrectomy (SG), 3 adjustable gastric band, and 1 one anastomosis gastric bypass. The median DDD LT4 decreased from 125 µg at baseline to 100 µg 12 months after surgery. From 24 to 48 months after surgery, the median DDD LT4 was stable at 125 µg. Most dose adjustments occurred during the first 24 months after surgery. In the time period of 24-48 months after surgery, the dose remained stable in 73.1% of the RYGB patients and in 60.0% of the SG patients. After 48 months in the RYGB group, no significant change in TSH and fT4 levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery led to frequent dose adjustments during the first 2 years after surgery. However, 24-48 months after surgery in the majority of patients, the dosage remained stable. No significant change in TSH and fT4 was observed 48 months after RYGB. In the first 2 years after surgery, clinicians should frequently monitor TSH and fT4 for individual dose adjustment of levothyroxine. Thereafter, the frequency of monitoring may be decreased

One Health Determinants of Escherichia coli Antimicrobial Resistance in Humans in the Community:An Umbrella Review

To date, the scientific literature on health variables for Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been investigated throughout several systematic reviews, often with a focus on only one aspect of the One Health variables: human, animal, or environment. The aim of this umbrella review is to conduct a systematic synthesis of existing evidence on Escherichia coli AMR in humans in the community from a One Health perspective. PubMed, EMBASE, and CINAHL were searched on “antibiotic resistance” and “systematic review” from inception until 25 March 2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022316431). The methodological quality was assessed, and the importance of identified variables was tabulated across all included reviews. Twenty-three reviews were included in this study, covering 860 primary studies. All reviews were of (critically) low quality. Most reviews focused on humans (20), 3 on animals, and 1 on both human and environmental variables. Antibiotic use, urinary tract infections, diabetes, and international travel were identified as the most important human variables. Poultry farms and swimming in freshwater were identified as potential sources for AMR transmission from the animal and environmental perspectives. This umbrella review highlights a gap in high-quality literature investigating the time between variable exposure, AMR testing, and animal and environmental AMR variables.</p

Закономерности распределения аномальных концентраций гелия в палеозойских отложениях Донбасса

Підвищені концентрації гелію у вільних і розчинених газах у вугільно-породному масиві Донбасу приурочені до зон зчленування Донбасу з Приазовським і Воронезьким кристалічними масивами і Головної антикліналі. Диз'юнктивні тектонічні порушення глибокого закладення служили, ймовірно, шляхами транзиту гелію від кристалічних порід фундаменту в палеозойські відклади Донбасу, і підвищений вміст гелію може служити індикатором шляхів транзиту газів з глибоких горизонтів Донецького вугільного басейну.Elevated concentrations of helium in free and dissolved gases in coal-rock mass of the Donets Coal Basin are confined to the junction zones of the Donets Coal Basin with the Priazovie and Voronezh crystalline core-areas and Glavnaya (Principal) Anticline. Deep-laid disjunctive dislocations were probably the ways for transit of helium from crystalline basement rocks into Paleozoic deposits of the Basin. Elevated concentrations of helium can also serve as indicators of the ways for transit of gases from deep levels of the Donets Coal Basin

Evaluation of the flame propagation within an SI engine using flame imaging and LES

This work shows experiments and simulations of the fired operation of a spark ignition engine with port-fuelled injection. The test rig considered is an optically accessible single cylinder engine specifically designed at TU Darmstadt for the detailed investigation of in-cylinder processes and model validation. The engine was operated under lean conditions using iso-octane as a substitute for gasoline. Experiments have been conducted to provide a sound database of the combustion process. A planar flame imaging technique has been applied within the swirl- and tumble-planes to provide statistical information on the combustion process to complement a pressure-based comparison between simulation and experiments. This data is then analysed and used to assess the large eddy simulation performed within this work. For the simulation, the engine code KIVA has been extended by the dynamically thickened flame model combined with chemistry reduction by means of pressure dependent tabulation. Sixty cycles have been simulated to perform a statistical evaluation. Based on a detailed comparison with the experimental data, a systematic study has been conducted to obtain insight into the most crucial modelling uncertainties

Modelling the hydrological behaviour of a coffee agroforestry basin in Costa Rica

UMR LISAH, Equipe Eau et Polluants en Bassins VersantsThe profitability of hydropower in Costa Rica is affected by soil erosion and sedimentation in dam reservoirs, which are in turn influenced by land use, infiltration and aquifer interactions with surface water. In order to foster the provision and payment for Hydrological Environmental Services (HES), a quantitative assessment of the impact of specific land uses on the functioning of drainage-basins is required. The present paper aims to study the water balance partitioning in a volcanic coffee agroforestry microbasin (1 km(2), steep slopes) in Costa Rica, as a first step towards evaluating sediment or contaminant loads. The main hydrological processes were monitored during one year, using flume, eddy-covariance flux tower, soil water profiles and piezometers. A new Hydro-SVAT lumped model is proposed, that balances SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) and basin-reservoir routines. The purpose of such a coupling was to achieve a trade-off between the expected performance of ecophysiological and hydrological models, which are often employed separately and at different spatial scales, either the plot or the basin. The calibration of the model to perform streamflow yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient equal to 0.89 for the year 2009, while the validation of the water balance partitioning was consistent with the independent measurements of actual evapotranspiration (R-2 = 0.79, energy balance closed independently), soil water content (R-2 = 0.35) and water table level (R-2 = 0.84). Eight months of data from 2010 were used to validate modelled streamflow, resulting in a NS = 0.75. An uncertainty analysis showed that the streamflow modelling was precise for nearly every time step, while a sensitivity analysis revealed which parameters mostly affected model precision, depending on the season. It was observed that 64% of the incident rainfall R flowed out of the basin as streamflow and 25% as evapotranspiration, while the remaining 11% is probably explained by deep percolation, measurement errors and/or inter-annual changes in soil and aquifer water stocks. The model indicated an interception loss equal to 4% of R, a surface runoff of 4% and an infiltration component of 92%. The modelled streamflow was constituted by 87% of baseflow originating from the aquifer, 7% of subsurface non-saturated runoff and 6% of surface runoff. Given the low surface runoff observed under the current physical conditions (andisol) and management practices (no tillage, planted trees, bare soil kept by weeding), this agroforestry system on a volcanic soil demonstrated potential to provide valuable HES, such as a reduced superficial displacement- capacity for fertilizers, pesticides and sediments, as well as a streamflow regulation function provided by the highly efficient mechanisms of aquifer recharge and discharge. The proposed combination of experimentation and modelling across ecophysiological and hydrological approaches proved to be useful to account for the behaviour of a given basin, so that it can be applied to compare HES provision for different regions or management alternatives