A Novel Forecasting Model for the Baltic Dry Index Utilizing Optimal Squeezing

Marine transport has grown rapidly as the result of globalization and sustainable world growth rates. Shipping market risks and uncertainty have also grown and need to be mitigated with the development of a more reliable procedure to predict changes in freight rates. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting model and apply it to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Such a model compresses, in an optimal way, information from the past in order to predict freight rates. To develop the forecasting model, we deploy a basic set of predictors, add lags of the BDI and introduce additional variables, in applying Bayesian compressed regression (BCR), with two important innovations. First, we include transition functions in the predictive set to capture both smooth and abrupt changes in the time path of BDI; second, we do not estimate the parameters of the transition functions, but rather embed them in the random search procedure inherent in BCR. This allows all coefficients to evolve in a time-varying manner, while searching for the best predictors within the historical set of data. The new procedures predict the BDI with considerable success

EU integration as uneven and combined development

International audienceThis paper documents the EU integration process using the uneven and combined development framework. Because capitalist social relations are territorially defined and politically built, unevenness between countries is not unconnected with that within countries and both involve antagonism between capital and labor. This is manifest in the 'state form' of the EU and its anti-democratic tendencies: public institutions at the community level play a major role in reinforcing unevenness in favour of leading countries, in both the productive and financial spheres