EFFECT OF MORTGAGE FINANCING ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN KENYA

The financial performance of commercial banks has been unstable as evidenced in Annual Supervision Report of 2011 to 2020, where the Return on Assets (ROA) rose to 6.2% in 2012 from 3% in 2011; and to below 3% in the years 2016 to 2020. Literature reveals that commercial banks’ lending criteria are pro-cyclical, implying a less strict lending criteria during the real estate boom, and very strict during burst; resulting in likely underestimation of the default risk on loans during periods of high demand by the commercial banks. The objective of the study was to establish the effect of mortgage financing on the n financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya for the period 2015 to 2022. Using secondary balanced panel data from 27 mortgage-offering banks in Kenya, with 189 data points and employing moderated multiple regression to achieve the study objectives. The regression analysis revealed that the independent variables explained 86.69% (R2 = 0.8669, p-value = 0004) of variance in of financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya, the coefficient of mortgage financing is 0.004434, (p=0.0004); implying that a unit increase in mortgage loan would result to significant increase in the return on assets by 0.004434 units. Therefore, the null hypothesis was rejected. The study concluded that an increase in the amount of mortgage loans offered as well as other activities that augment the total value of mortgage loans extended by the commercial banks leads to a significant improvement in the financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. The study recommends that commercial banks in Kenya should target to increase the amount of mortgage offered as well as other activities that augment the total value of mortgage loans extended in order to improve their financial performance. JEL: D10; D14; G21  Article visualizations

To reach the poor: results from the ISNAR-IFPRI Next Harvest study on genetically modified crops, public research, and policy implications

"Local farming communities throughout the world face productivity constraints, environmental concerns, and diverse nutritional needs. Developing countries address these challenges in a number of ways. One way is public research that produces genetically modified (GM) crops and recognize biotechnology as a part of the solution. To reach these communities, GM crops, after receiving biosafety agreement, must be approved for evaluation under local conditions. However, gaps between approvals in the developed and developing world grow larger, as the process of advancing GM crops in developing countries becomes increasingly difficult. In several countries, only insect resistant cotton has successfully moved from small, confined experimental trials to larger, open trials and to farms. By far, most GM crop approvals have been for commercial products that perform well under tropical conditions. However, complete information on public GM crop research in developing countries has not been assessed. “Will policies and research institutions in the developing world stimulate the safe use of publicly funded GM food crops?” The relatively few GM crops approved from public research, coupled with growing regulatory, biosafety capacity, trade, and political concerns, argue to the contrary. To tackle this issue, we identified and analyzed public research pipelines for GM crops among 16 developing countries and transition economies. Respondents reported 209 genetic transformation events for 46 different crops at the time when the survey was conducted. The pipelines demonstrate scientific progress among publicly funded crop research institutes in participating countries. Information and findings are presented for GM crops nearing final stages of selection. Additional details are provided for the types of genes and traits used, the breadth of genetic resources documented, implications for regulation, and the type of research partnerships employed. Regulations, GM crop approvals, choice of transgene, and policy implications are discussed as they affect this research. Based on these findings, recommendations are presented that would help sustain and increase efficiency of publicly supported research while meeting biosafety requirements. To do so, the study examines results concerning investments and choices made in research, capacity, and policy development for biotechnology. These indicate the risk and potential for GM technologies in developing countries. Policy makers, those funding biotechnology, and other stakeholders can use this information to prioritize investments, consider product advancement, and assess relative magnitude of potential risks, and benefits." Authors' Abstract

Animal-related factors associated with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in children younger than five years in western Kenya: A matched case-control study

Background Diarrheal disease remains among the leading causes of global mortality in children younger than 5 years. Exposure to domestic animals may be a risk factor for diarrheal disease. The objectives of this study were to identify animal-related exposures associated with cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children in rural western Kenya, and to identify the major zoonotic enteric pathogens present in domestic animals residing in the homesteads of case and control children. Methodology/Principal findings We characterized animal-related exposures in a subset of case and control children (n = 73 pairs matched on age, sex and location) with reported animal presence at home enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study in western Kenya, and analysed these for an association with MSD. We identified potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens in pooled fecal specimens collected from domestic animals resident at children’s homesteads. Variables that were associated with decreased risk of MSD were washing hands after animal contact (matched odds ratio [MOR] = 0.2; 95% CI 0.08–0.7), and presence of adult sheep that were not confined in a pen overnight (MOR = 0.1; 0.02–0.5). Variables that were associated with increased risk of MSD were increasing number of sheep owned (MOR = 1.2; 1.0–1.5), frequent observation of fresh rodent excreta (feces/urine) outside the house (MOR = 7.5; 1.5–37.2), and participation of the child in providing water to chickens (MOR = 3.8; 1.2–12.2). Of 691 pooled specimens collected from 2,174 domestic animals, 159 pools (23%) tested positive for one or more potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni, C. coli, non-typhoidal Salmonella, diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, or rotavirus). We did not find any association between the presence of particular pathogens in household animals, and MSD in children. Conclusions and significance Public health agencies should continue to promote frequent hand washing, including after animal contact, to reduce the risk of MSD. Future studies should address specific causal relations of MSD with sheep and chicken husbandry practices, and with the presence of rodents

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors.

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on 12 March 2020, and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected, but by 31 July 2020, there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174 of 3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 2.9 to 5.8%) and was highest in urban counties Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%), and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance, and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya and across Africa

Results and Impacts of the Integrated Land and Water Management for Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (ILWAC) Project: Evaluation Report

The objective of the evaluation was to assess the results and impacts of the activities of all ILWAC Trust Fundfinanced projects in West Africa using a selected subset, to identify key lessons learned, and to document best climatesmart practices for scaling up. The study entailed participatory evaluation of the results and impacts of various interventions geared towards integrated water resources management for climate change and variability preparedness in West Africa. In this respect, the study identified key lessons learned and documented best climate-resilient practices for scaling up and dissemination to multiple stakeholders in the West African region. 1. Agriculture remains the backbone for sustaining livelihoods in West Africa but faces numerous challenges. Agriculture is an important source of income, food and raw materials in West Africa, employing more than half of the region’s population, which culminated in the adoption of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in 2003. Few countries, however, have managed to mobilize their agriculture sector to deliver on development outcomes such as food and nutrition security, poverty reduction, economic growth, job creation, youth employment and industrialization. Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change, resulting from sensitivity and exposure to climate shocks and lack of capacity to cope with and adapt to such changes. ILWAC evaluation study results from household surveys, focus group discussions and key informant interviews indicate that agricultural productivity in the region remains low, lagging far behind other regions of the world. Contributors to such low productivity include incidence of climate risks (drought, floods and high temperatures), pests and diseases, low technology adoption, limited access to financial services, limited access to markets and market information and limited access to good road networks (Plate 1). All the aforementioned contributors are valid denominators for all the seven ILWAC project areas that were evaluated. 2. Farmers in West Africa are particularly vulnerable to climatic shocks because of their high dependence on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. There is an evident lack of access to formal safety nets as indicated by farmers in Senegal (ENRACCA-WA) and Burkina Faso (AmREACCAF and APESS) projects. Climate change has already exerted significant impacts in the region. Since the 1970s, the region has experienced the occurrence of many droughts. Temperatures have increased in the second half of the 20th Century, especially in the latter 20 years of the same period. Farmers reported drought (about 40% of treatment and control groups), as the most prevalent climatic shock experienced over the last five years, followed by erratic rainfall, floods and invasion of crop pests and locusts. We identified eleven coping strategies, out of which three strategies were categorized based on a gradient of severity of food insecurity into low, moderate, and high food insecurity. During low food insecurity, households employ food-maximizing strategies such as purchasing food and eating less food and involving a low commitment of domestic resources that all enable quick recovery of households once the crisis eases. In times of moderate food insecurity, a greater commitment of household resources is increasingly required to meet subsistence needs. Coping strategies developed by households include sale of food reserves, use of savings, sale of livestock, borrowing food, and borrowing money (from friends, relatives, private lenders and banks). During high food insecurity, strategies are a sign of failure to cope with the food crisis and may involve drastic options that may undermine their future ability to prevent, mitigate, cope, and recover from shocks. Households adopt sale of assets such as land and homes, keeping children home from school, food aid and migration. The use of irrigation and rainfall water harvesting for agriculture remain low, despite prevalent droughts and widespread rainfed agricultural practices. One of the reasons is that most farming communities are far from rivers: hence considerable investment is required to develop irrigation in many project areas. 3. Although farmers use various strategies highlighted above, they will need support to double their efforts with innovative climate- smart agricultural practices and technologies to remain food secure. Areas where ILWAC interventions were targeted showed positive results, but broader efforts to scale out the successes are needed to achieve a greater impact. Overall, the ILWAC project beneficiaries reported higher adoption rates of climate-smart practices, demonstrating a favourable impact of the project. However, low awareness of the most appropriate technologies to cope with climate shocks was reported across all study areas yet, the region is expected to experience increasing climatic shocks with total precipitation predicted to increase for the most part more notably between July and October by 2050. Increases in precipitation are predicted to cause crop damages and floods. Overall, temperatures will rise by about 2°C to 3°C over the same time period. Higher temperatures of 3°C to 6°C are projected for the end of the 21st century (Niang et al., 2014). Despite these impending changes, few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate risks, owing to limited knowledge on appropriate adaptation options and low endowment with production resources. As a result, ILWAC interventions were targeted to reverse these challenges. Their successful implementation showed positive results, which are largely limited to specific areas of implementation. Therefore, broader scaling out ILWAC interventions provided success stories tailored to specific contexts (biophysical and socio- economic); hence offered lessons and opportunities for replicating the bright spots with a regional approach. Across the seven projects, evaluation results indicated a couple of selected successes in the region (Plate 1). Selected successes make up potential candidates for scaling up climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices, and innovative approaches notably, including: i. Innovation platforms as a pillar for change: The successful establishment of innovation platforms across all project countries was evident but have remained largely underdeveloped and not utilized to their full potential. Platforms provided a framework for sharing knowledge on adaptation innovations to climate change, providing a good entry point for technology dissemination in target areas across all project countries. The study showed that the innovation platform model can offer the potential to organize stakeholders to address the objective of improving the livelihood of their members. IPs, however, need a strong voice to demand the needed services from service providers, negotiate and advocate for collective interests with the private sector and government. The use of a participatory development communication (PDC) within IPs would greatly increase their sustainability; ii. Increased human and institutional capacity for stakeholders: The enhancement of capacity for diverse stakeholder groups, including farmers, players in all segments of priority value chains, extension agents, policymakers and researchers (All project countries) resulted in significant positive results such as increased capacity towards awareness of CSA technologies and application of appropriate adaptation measures in their communities. This highlights the need to prioritize linkages amongst farmer organizations, extension and agricultural research; iii. Integrated landscape approaches for natural resources management provided exponential benefits: The pioneering of integrated land and water management for adaptation to climate variability and change improved management of natural resources in specific target countries, for example, in Burkina Faso, the relative reduction in sedimentation by up to 70%; and that in reduced runoff by up to 30% which helped improve the farmers’ agricultural practices and livelihoods (AmREACCAF-Burkina Faso). This also increased storage of water in the Boura reservoir through avoided sedimentation. Beyond water provision for household use, these reservoirs serve as key food baskets for fisheries and irrigation for households; iv. Integrated and diversified options offered opportunities to increase resilience and unlock the potential for rural smallholder livelihoods: The ILWAC project improved implementation of innovative agronomic interventions that substantially reduced the yield gap for millet for example the use of improved crop varieties (drought tolerant and early maturing) resulted in a 10 fold yield increase in grain biomass (ENRACCASenegal). Additional strategies include soil amendments in the form of organic and inorganic fertilizer sources, weed control practices as well as improved storage techniques (ISFM-Benin); Household enterprise diversification with agroforestry tree species enhanced the resilience of smallholder communities with climatesmart benefits such as windbreaks, these modified the micro-climate of the area that enhanced food security and revenue generation within target communities, increased farmer adaptive capacity and overall soil health attributes (ENRACCA- Senegal). 5. Women empowerment resulted in improved rural livelihoods: Improved gender dynamics regarding the roles, activities and representativeness within the selected projects had a positive impact on women empowerment for all project countries. There are numerous ways by which women were empowered e.g. conducting off-season vegetable cultivation allowed women to fetch increased returns (3 times than the normal price) in the off-season months. There were efforts to promote increased participation of women in the projects, offering opportunities to freely express themselves, highlight their needs and specific experiences. However, participation of women in leadership positions was generally low (less than 10%). In addition, women were able to benefit from the capacity building provided by the project, and access technologies and inputs resulting in higher production and subsequent incomes than before. Male-headed households were more likely to practice more CSA technologies by a factor of about 1 compared to female headed households. There was evidence of better access to financial services and training through village savings and loan associations, and gender empowerment. A key attribute of the assessed projects was that for the most part, women farmers were not well organized into interest groups with the capacity to promote their interests and engage in advocacy activities geared at influencing policy for their ultimate benefit. This was a missed opportunity especially in the context of existing innovation platforms that needs concerted efforts and strengthening. 6. More economic and social safety nets for smallholder livelihoods beyond ILWAC beneficiaries are needed: ILWAC enhanced farmers’ access to climate-resilient and low-emission practices and technologies, including crop, livestock, soil and water management options and energy saving technologies. ILWAC increased the number of CSA practices implemented by three practices more compared to non-participation. Results further showed that education level is associated with higher income. Higher value assets such as livestock did also significantly influenced income. ILWAC increased significantly the value of assets to almost 90%; a factor attributable to additional assets that were distributed to farmer groups such as the case of Gambia, Senegal and Sierra Leone. This study therefore confirms that more assets in ILWAC supported households offered better livelihood options than those in the control group. Results further show that male-headed households have a higher value of assets than female-headed households. On the overall, although participation in ILWAC increased income by 19%, there remains room for further improvement amongst the ILWAC beneficiaries given the lower differences in the economic domain for sustainable intensification exemplified before and after the ILWAC project on Plate 2. Likewise, Plate 2 highlights that better options are needed in the social domain to ensure that ILWAC beneficiaries can significantly gain from social dividends (e.g. strengthened farmer groups, collective action, and shared labor). Given the highlighted successes among the ILWAC beneficiaries, efforts will be needed to scale these bright spots beyond the ILWAC beneficiaries to wider geographical coverages. 7. There is need for concerted efforts towards supporting technical, financial, institutional and governance needs within the target countries in order to make community livelihoods more resilient to climate change. Despite the recorded successes there remains room for improvement in several institutional and governance realms. Farmers in the project sites are faced by poor extension, with the ratio of government paid extension officers to that of farmers being low, only 33% of the households have access to extension service. This has a negative impact on the quality of extension services being offered and building adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. A significant challenge remains in all project countries to get the technologies widely used due to the lack of a suitable enabling environment among others — extension services, financial resources, infrastructure, risk management and cross-sectoral linkages. Farmers are further constrained by having limited access to climatic information. Effective research and innovation are also needed to continuously improve practices and technologies. This calls for a policy recommendation where concerted efforts are needed to mobilize financial resources and build the capacity of West African researchers, policy-makers and institutions to understand, carry out and use good quality data towards informed decision making and scenario analyses (Also see evidence revealed by Plate 2).Enabling policy and institutional environment can provide the conditions and incentives for scaling out

Temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya.

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Ayany, Malo and Ogot : Historians in Search of a Luo Nation

D. W. Cohen & E. S. A. Odhiambo — Ayany, Malo et Ogot : des historiens à la recherche d'une nation luo. L'identité luo s'est constituée à travers des circonstances et des processus sociaux et idéologiques complexes, allant des formes de parole intime et de salutation aux façons dont des identités locales se sont développées au cours de conflits directement sociaux et politiques, et à la manière dont les historiens ont essayé de rendre compte et d'utiliser le passé de la population luophone de l'ouest du Kenya. Le concept anthropologique et luo de segmentation constitue un cadre de référence prééminent et problématique. Dans les études historiques sur le passé des Luo, le modèle de segmentation s'accorde avec une notion de « répétition » : les processus antérieurs de formation d'identités collectives et de groupements constituent une répétition des processus formateurs d'une identité régionale ou nationale de notre époque, en sorte que « la nation luo » est la famille luo au sens large. Ces idées sur l'histoire de l'identité luo ont leur propre histoire et leur propre sociologie de même que leurs propres contradictions. On note que les historiens luo ont utilisé les grandes collectivités luo (piny) de ce siècle comme des modèles pour la reconstruction historique de l'organisation précoloniale. Le modèle segmen-taire est présenté comme un modèle puissant et problématique dans l'élaboration'' des études historiques sur le passé et sur la société luo. Une identité luo étendue n'a pas été créée simplement par l'expansion segmentaire d'un groupe originel de pionniers, mais plutôt construite au cours du temps par des acteurs réels, à travers un processus de conflit et de contestation.Cohen William B., Odhiambo E.S Atieno. Ayany, Malo and Ogot : Historians in Search of a Luo Nation. In: Cahiers d'études africaines, vol. 27, n°107-108, 1987. Mémoires, Histoires, Identités. pp. 269-286

DEBUNKING THE MYTHS OF GM CROPS FOR AFRICA: THE CASE OF BT MAIZE IN KENYA

Empirical evidence from research on Bt maize in Kenya puts to rest most concerns raised against GMOs (not responding to farmers' needs, expensive, benefiting agro-business, risk of decreased biodiversity), but does indicate that contamination of local varieties is likely and buildup of insect resistance possible, requiring careful monitoring and evaluation