Predicting progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia using neuropsychological data: a supervised learning approach using time windows

Background: Predicting progression from a stage of Mild Cognitive Impairment to dementia is a major pursuit in current research. It is broadly accepted that cognition declines with a continuum between MCI and dementia. As such, cohorts of MCI patients are usually heterogeneous, containing patients at different stages of the neurodegenerative process. This hampers the prognostic task. Nevertheless, when learning prognostic models, most studies use the entire cohort of MCI patients regardless of their disease stages. In this paper, we propose a Time Windows approach to predict conversion to dementia, learning with patients stratified using time windows, thus fine-tuning the prognosis regarding the time to conversion. Methods: In the proposed Time Windows approach, we grouped patients based on the clinical information of whether they converted (converter MCI) or remained MCI (stable MCI) within a specific time window. We tested time windows of 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. We developed a prognostic model for each time window using clinical and neuropsychological data and compared this approach with the commonly used in the literature, where all patients are used to learn the models, named as First Last approach. This enables to move from the traditional question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia somewhere in the future" to the question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia in a specific time window". Results: The proposed Time Windows approach outperformed the First Last approach. The results showed that we can predict conversion to dementia as early as 5 years before the event with an AUC of 0.88 in the cross-validation set and 0.76 in an independent validation set. Conclusions: Prognostic models using time windows have higher performance when predicting progression from MCI to dementia, when compared to the prognostic approach commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Time Windows approach is more relevant from a clinical point of view, predicting conversion within a temporal interval rather than sometime in the future and allowing clinicians to timely adjust treatments and clinical appointments.FCT under the Neuroclinomics2 project [PTDC/EEI-SII/1937/2014, SFRH/BD/95846/2013]; INESC-ID plurianual [UID/CEC/50021/2013]; LASIGE Research Unit [UID/CEC/00408/2013

Cortisol in hair measured in young adults - a biomarker of major life stressors?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stress as a cause of illness has been firmly established. In public health and stress research a retrospective biomarker of extended stress would be an indispensible aid. The objective of this pilot study was to investigate whether concentrations of cortisol in hair correlate with perceived stress, experiences of serious life events, and perceived health in young adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hair samples were cut from the posterior vertex area of (n = 99) university students who also answered a questionnaire covering experiences of serious life events, perceived Stress Scale and perceived health during the last three months. Cortisol was measured using a competitive radioimmunoassay in methanol extracts of hair samples frozen in liquid nitrogen and mechanically pulverised.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean cortisol levels were significantly related to serious life events (p = 0.045), weakly negatively correlated to perceived stress (p = 0.025, r = -0.061) but nor affected by sex, coloured/permed hair, intake of pharmaceuticals or self-reported health. In a multiple regression model, only the indicator of serious life events had an independent (p = 0.041) explanation of increased levels of cortisol in hair. Out of four outliers with extremely high cortisol levels two could be contacted, both reported serious psychological problems.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings suggest that measurement of cortisol in hair could serve as a retrospective biomarker of increased cortisol production reflecting exposure to major life stressors and possibly extended psychological illness with important implications for research, clinical practice and public health. Experience of serious life events seems to be more important in raising cortisol levels in hair than perceived stress.</p

Neuropsychological predictors of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease: a feature selection ensemble combining stability and predictability

Background Predicting progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is an utmost open issue in AD-related research. Neuropsychological assessment has proven to be useful in identifying MCI patients who are likely to convert to dementia. However, the large battery of neuropsychological tests (NPTs) performed in clinical practice and the limited number of training examples are challenge to machine learning when learning prognostic models. In this context, it is paramount to pursue approaches that effectively seek for reduced sets of relevant features. Subsets of NPTs from which prognostic models can be learnt should not only be good predictors, but also stable, promoting generalizable and explainable models. Methods We propose a feature selection (FS) ensemble combining stability and predictability to choose the most relevant NPTs for prognostic prediction in AD. First, we combine the outcome of multiple (filter and embedded) FS methods. Then, we use a wrapper-based approach optimizing both stability and predictability to compute the number of selected features. We use two large prospective studies (ADNI and the Portuguese Cognitive Complaints Cohort, CCC) to evaluate the approach and assess the predictive value of a large number of NPTs. Results The best subsets of features include approximately 30 and 20 (from the original 79 and 40) features, for ADNI and CCC data, respectively, yielding stability above 0.89 and 0.95, and AUC above 0.87 and 0.82. Most NPTs learnt using the proposed feature selection ensemble have been identified in the literature as strong predictors of conversion from MCI to AD. Conclusions The FS ensemble approach was able to 1) identify subsets of stable and relevant predictors from a consensus of multiple FS methods using baseline NPTs and 2) learn reliable prognostic models of conversion from MCI to AD using these subsets of features. The machine learning models learnt from these features outperformed the models trained without FS and achieved competitive results when compared to commonly used FS algorithms. Furthermore, the selected features are derived from a consensus of methods thus being more robust, while releasing users from choosing the most appropriate FS method to be used in their classification task.PTDC/EEI-SII/1937/2014; SFRH/BD/95846/2013; SFRH/BD/118872/2016info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Telomere length and bipolar disorder

Variation in telomere length is heritable and is currently considered a promising biomarker of susceptibility for neuropsychiatric disorders, particularly because of its association with memory function and hippocampal morphology. Here, we investigate telomere length in connection to familial risk and disease expression in bipolar disorder (BD). We used quantitative polymerase chain reactions and a telomere-sequence to single-copy-gene-sequence ratio method to determine telomere length in genomic DNA extracted from buccal smears from 63 patients with BD, 74 first-degree relatives (49 relatives had no lifetime psychopathology and 25 had a non-BD mood disorder) and 80 unrelated healthy individuals. Participants also underwent magnetic resonance imaging to determine hippocampal volumes and cognitive assessment to evaluate episodic memory using the verbal paired associates test. Telomere length was shorter in psychiatrically-well relatives (p=0.007) compared to unrelated healthy participants. Telomere length was also shorter in relatives (regardless of psychiatric status; p<0.01) and patients with BD not on lithium (p=0.02) compared to lithium-treated patients with BD. In the entire sample, telomere length was positively associated with left and right hippocampal volume and with delayed recall. This study provides evidence that shortened telomere length is associated with familial risk for BD. Lithium may have neuroprotective properties that require further investigation using prospective designs

Anisotropic nanomaterials: structure, growth, assembly, and functions

Comprehensive knowledge over the shape of nanomaterials is a critical factor in designing devices with desired functions. Due to this reason, systematic efforts have been made to synthesize materials of diverse shape in the nanoscale regime. Anisotropic nanomaterials are a class of materials in which their properties are direction-dependent and more than one structural parameter is needed to describe them. Their unique and fine-tuned physical and chemical properties make them ideal candidates for devising new applications. In addition, the assembly of ordered one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), and three-dimensional (3D) arrays of anisotropic nanoparticles brings novel properties into the resulting system, which would be entirely different from the properties of individual nanoparticles. This review presents an overview of current research in the area of anisotropic nanomaterials in general and noble metal nanoparticles in particular. We begin with an introduction to the advancements in this area followed by general aspects of the growth of anisotropic nanoparticles. Then we describe several important synthetic protocols for making anisotropic nanomaterials, followed by a summary of their assemblies, and conclude with major applications