Predicting ecosystem responses to changes in fisheries catch, temperature, and primary productivity with a dynamic Bayesian network model

The recent adoption of Bayesian networks (BNs) in ecology provides an opportunity to make advances because complex interactions can be recovered from field data and then used to predict the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. In this study, we use a dynamic BN model with a hidden variable and spatial autocorrelation to explore the future of different fish and zooplankton species, given alternate scenarios, and across spatial scales within the North Sea. For most fish species, we were able to predict a trend of increase or decline in response to change in fisheries catch; however, this varied across the different areas, outlining the importance of trophic interactions and the spatial relationship between neighbouring areas. We were able to predict trends in zooplankton biomass in response to temperature change, with the spatial patterns of these effects varying by species. In contrast, there was high variability in terms of response to productivity changes and consequently knock-on effects on higher level trophic species. Finally, we were able to provide a new data-driven modelling approach that accounts for multispecies associations and interactions and their changes over space and time, which might be beneficial to give strategic advice on potential response of the system to pressure.We gratefully acknowledge the Natural Environment Research Council UK that has funded this research, along with support from the European Commission (OCEANCERTAIN, FP7-ENV-2013-6.1-1; no: 603773) for David Maxwell and from CEFAS for Andrew Kenny and David Maxwell

Forty years studying British politics : the decline of Anglo-America

The still present belief some 40 years ago that British politics was both exceptional and superior has been replaced by more theoretically sophisticated analyses based on a wider and more rigorously deployed range of research techniques, although historical analysis appropriately remains important. The American influence on the study of British politics has declined, but the European Union dimension has not been fully integrated. The study of interest groups has been in some respects a fading paradigm, but important questions related to democratic health have still to be addressed. Public administration has been supplanted by public policy, but economic policy remains under-studied. A key challenge for the future is the study of the management of expectations

Pneumatosis intestinalis versus pseudo-pneumatosis: review of CT findings and differentiation

Pneumatosis intestinalis is defined as the presence of gas within the wall of the gastrointestinal tract. Originally described on plain abdominal radiographs, it is an imaging sign rather than a specific diagnosis and it is associated with both benign and life-threatening clinical conditions. The most common life-threatening cause of pneumatosis intestinalis is bowel ischaemia. Computed tomography (CT) is usually requested to detect underlying disease. The presence of pneumatosis intestinalis often leads physicians to make a diagnosis of serious disease. However, an erroneous diagnosis of pneumatosis intestinalis may be made (i.e. pseudo-pneumatosis) when intraluminal beads of gas are trapped within or between faeces and adjacent mucosal folds. The purpose of this pictorial essay is to review and describe the CT imaging findings of pneumatosis and pseudo-pneumatosis intestinalis and to discuss key discriminatory imaging features

The Importance of Conserving Biodiversity Outside of Protected Areas in Mediterranean Ecosystems

Mediterranean-type ecosystems constitute one of the rarest terrestrial biomes and yet they are extraordinarily biodiverse. Home to over 250 million people, the five regions where these ecosystems are found have climate and coastal conditions that make them highly desirable human habitats. The current conservation landscape does not reflect the mediterranean biome's rarity and its importance for plant endemism. Habitat conversion will clearly outpace expansion of formal protected-area networks, and conservationists must augment this traditional strategy with new approaches to sustain the mediterranean biota. Using regional scale datasets, we determine the area of land in each of the five regions that is protected, converted (e.g., to urban or industrial), impacted (e.g., intensive, cultivated agriculture), or lands that we consider to have conservation potential. The latter are natural and semi-natural lands that are unprotected (e.g., private range lands) but sustain numerous native species and associated habitats. Chile has the greatest proportion of its land (75%) in this category and California-Mexico the least (48%). To illustrate the potential for achieving mediterranean biodiversity conservation on these lands, we use species-area curves generated from ecoregion scale data on native plant species richness and vertebrate species richness. For example, if biodiversity could be sustained on even 25% of existing unprotected, natural and semi-natural lands, we estimate that the habitat of more than 6,000 species could be represented. This analysis suggests that if unprotected natural and semi-natural lands are managed in a manner that allows for persistence of native species, we can realize significant additional biodiversity gains. Lasting biodiversity protection at the scale needed requires unprecedented collaboration among stakeholders to promote conservation both inside and outside of traditional protected areas, including on lands where people live and work

Anatomical Network Comparison of Human Upper and Lower, Newborn and Adult, and Normal and Abnormal Limbs, with Notes on Development, Pathology and Limb Serial Homology vs. Homoplasy

How do the various anatomical parts (modules) of the animal body evolve into very different integrated forms (integration) yet still function properly without decreasing the individual's survival? This long-standing question remains unanswered for multiple reasons, including lack of consensus about conceptual definitions and approaches, as well as a reasonable bias toward the study of hard tissues over soft tissues. A major difficulty concerns the non-trivial technical hurdles of addressing this problem, specifically the lack of quantitative tools to quantify and compare variation across multiple disparate anatomical parts and tissue types. In this paper we apply for the first time a powerful new quantitative tool, Anatomical Network Analysis (AnNA), to examine and compare in detail the musculoskeletal modularity and integration of normal and abnormal human upper and lower limbs. In contrast to other morphological methods, the strength of AnNA is that it allows efficient and direct empirical comparisons among body parts with even vastly different architectures (e.g. upper and lower limbs) and diverse or complex tissue composition (e.g. bones, cartilages and muscles), by quantifying the spatial organization of these parts-their topological patterns relative to each other-using tools borrowed from network theory. Our results reveal similarities between the skeletal networks of the normal newborn/adult upper limb vs. lower limb, with exception to the shoulder vs. pelvis. However, when muscles are included, the overall musculoskeletal network organization of the upper limb is strikingly different from that of the lower limb, particularly that of the more proximal structures of each limb. Importantly, the obtained data provide further evidence to be added to the vast amount of paleontological, gross anatomical, developmental, molecular and embryological data recently obtained that contradicts the long-standing dogma that the upper and lower limbs are serial homologues. In addition, the AnNA of the limbs of a trisomy 18 human fetus strongly supports Pere Alberch's ill-named "logic of monsters" hypothesis, and contradicts the commonly accepted idea that birth defects often lead to lower integration (i.e. more parcellation) of anatomical structures

Efavirenz versus boosted atazanavir-containing regimens and immunologic, virologic, and clinical outcomes: A prospective study of HIV-positive individuals

OBJECTIVE: To compare regimens consisting of either ritonavir-boosted atazanavir or efavirenz and a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) backbone with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals in Europe and the United States included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. METHODS: HIV-positive, antiretroviral therapy-naive, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-free individuals were followed from the time they started an atazanavir or efavirenz regimen. We estimated an analog of the "intention-to-treat" effect for efavirenz versus atazanavir regimens on clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes with adjustment via inverse probability weighting for time-varying covariates. RESULTS: A total of 4301 individuals started an atazanavir regimen (83 deaths, 157 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths) and 18,786 individuals started an efavirenz regimen (389 deaths, 825 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths). During a median follow-up of 31 months, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.98 (0.77, 1.24) for death and 1.09 (0.91, 1.30) for AIDS-defining illness or death comparing efavirenz with atazanavir regimens. The 5-year survival difference was 0.1% (95% confidence interval: -0.7%, 0.8%) and the AIDS-free survival difference was -0.3% (-1.2%, 0.6%). After 12 months, the mean change in CD4 cell count was 20.8 (95% confidence interval: 13.9, 27.8) cells/mm lower and the risk of virologic failure was 20% (14%, 26%) lower in the efavirenz regimens. CONCLUSION: Our estimates are consistent with a smaller 12-month increase in CD4 cell count, and a smaller risk of virologic failure at 12 months for efavirenz compared with atazanavir regimens. No overall differences could be detected with respect to 5-year survival or AIDS-free survival

A nationwide study on reproductive function, ovarian reserve, and risk of premature menopause in female survivors of childhood cancer: design and methodological challenges

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Advances in childhood cancer treatment over the past decades have significantly improved survival, resulting in a rapidly growing group of survivors. However, both chemo- and radiotherapy may adversely affect reproductive function. This paper describes the design and encountered methodological challenges of a nationwide study in the Netherlands investigating the effects of treatment on reproductive function, ovarian reserve, premature menopause and pregnancy outcomes in female childhood cancer survivors (CCS), the DCOG LATER-VEVO study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study is a retrospective cohort study consisting of two parts: a questionnaire assessing medical, menstrual, and obstetric history, and a clinical assessment evaluating ovarian and uterine function by hormonal analyses and transvaginal ultrasound measurements. The eligible study population consists of adult female 5-year survivors of childhood cancer treated in the Netherlands, whereas the control group consists of age-matched sisters of the participating CCS. To date, study invitations have been sent to 1611 CCS and 429 sister controls, of which 1215 (75%) and 333 (78%) have responded so far. Of these responders, the majority consented to participate in both parts of the study (53% vs. 65% for CCS and sister controls respectively). Several challenges were encountered involving the study population: dealing with bias due to the differences in characteristics of several types of (non-) participants and finding an adequately sized and well-matched control group. Moreover, the challenges related to the data collection process included: differences in response rates between web-based and paper-based questionnaires, validity of self-reported outcomes, interpretation of clinical measurements of women using hormonal contraceptives, and inter- and intra-observer variation of the ultrasound measurements.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The DCOG LATER-VEVO study will provide valuable information about the reproductive potential of paediatric cancer patients as well as long-term survivors of childhood cancer. Other investigators planning to conduct large cohort studies on late effects may encounter similar challenges as those encountered during this study. The solutions to these challenges described in this paper may be useful to these investigators.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NTR2922; <url>http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2922</url></p

Smyd3 Is Required for the Development of Cardiac and Skeletal Muscle in Zebrafish

Modifications of histone tails are involved in the regulation of a wide range of biological processes including cell cycle, cell survival, cell division, and cell differentiation. Among the modifications, histone methylation plays a critical role in cardiac and skeletal muscle differentiation. In our earlier studies, we found that SMYD3 has methyltransferase activity to histone H3 lysine 4, and that its up-regulation is involved in the tumorigenesis of human colon, liver, and breast. To clarify the role of Smyd3 in development, we have studied its expression patterns in zebrafish embryos and the effect of its suppression on development using Smyd3-specific antisense morpholino-oligonucleotides. We here show that transcripts of smyd3 were expressed in zebrafish embryos at all developmental stages examined and that knockdown of smyd3 in embryos resulted in pericardial edema and defects in the trunk structure. In addition, these phenotypes were associated with abnormal expression of three heart-chamber markers including cmlc2, amhc and vmhc, and abnormal expression of myogenic regulatory factors including myod and myog. These data suggest that Smyd3 plays an important role in the development of heart and skeletal muscle