Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. Results Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. Conclusions The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. (c) 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Peer reviewe

Knowledge of Bovine Tuberculosis, Cattle Husbandry and Dairy Practices amongst Pastoralists and Small-Scale Dairy Farmers in Cameroon

BACKGROUND:Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and zoonotic tuberculosis (zTB) has relied upon surveillance and slaughter of infected cattle, milk pasteurisation and public health education. In Cameroon, like many other sub-Saharan African countries, there is limited understanding of current cattle husbandry or milk processing practices or livestock keepers awareness of bTB. This paper describes husbandry and milk processing practices within different Cameroonian cattle keeping communities and bTB awareness in comparison to other infectious diseases. STUDY DESIGN:A population based cross-sectional sample of herdsmen and a questionnaire were used to gather data from pastoralists and dairy farmers in the North West Region and Vina Division of Cameroon. RESULTS:Pastoralists were predominately male Fulanis who had kept cattle for over a decade. Dairy farmers were non-Fulani and nearly half were female. Pastoralists went on transhumance with their cattle and came into contact with other herds and potential wildlife reservoirs of bTB. Dairy farmers housed their cattle and had little contact with other herds or wildlife. Pastoralists were aware of bTB and other infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease and fasciolosis. These pastoralists were also able to identify clinical signs of these diseases. A similar proportion of dairy farmers were aware of bTB but fewer were aware of foot-and-mouth and fasciolosis. In general, dairy farmers were unable to identify any clinical signs for any of these diseases. Importantly most pastoralists and dairy farmers were unaware that bTB could be transmitted to people by consuming milk. CONCLUSIONS:Current cattle husbandry practices make the control of bTB in cattle challenging especially in mobile pastoralist herds. Routine test and slaughter control in dairy herds would be tractable but would have profound impact on dairy farmer livelihoods. Prevention of transmission in milk offers the best approach for human risk mitigation in Cameroon but requires strategies that improved risk awareness amongst producers and consumers

Paediatric schistosomiasis:What we know and what we need to know

Schistosomiasis affects over 200 million people worldwide, most of whom are children. Research and control strategies directed at preschool-aged children (PSAC), i.e., ≤5 years old, have lagged behind those in older children and adults. With the recent WHO revision of the schistosomiasis treatment guidelines to include PSAC, and the recognition of gaps in our current knowledge on the disease and its treatment in this age group, there is now a concerted effort to address these shortcomings. Global and national schistosome control strategies are yet to include PSAC in treatment schedules. Maximum impact of schistosome treatment programmes will be realised through effective treatment of PSAC. In this review, we (i) discuss the current knowledge on the dynamics and consequences of paediatric schistosomiasis and (ii) identify knowledge and policy gaps relevant to these areas and to the successful control of schistosome infection and disease in this age group. Herein, we highlight risk factors, immune mechanisms, pathology, and optimal timing for screening, diagnosis, and treatment of paediatric schistosomiasis. We also discuss the tools required for treating schistosomiasis in PSAC and strategies for accessing them for treatment

Studies On The Adaptation Of Bambara Groundnut [Vigna Subterranea (L.) Verdc] In Owerri Southeastern Nigeria

ABSTRACT: Field experiment was conducted on the adaptability of bambara groundnut in humid rain forest tropical zones with six local accesssions in a Randomized Complete Block Design with three replications. Data was collected on the yield and yield attributes, and analysed with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and means separated by least significant difference (LSD p=0.05). Correlation studies were carried out to determine the relationship between yield and yield attributes. Results of analysis of variance showed significant differences in plant height, canopy diameter and petiole length, and no significant differences in number of stem and dry matter weight (biomass) among accessions. Correlation analysis between yield attributes and fresh pod weight indicated positive correlation in all cases. However, plant height and number of stems had a near perfect positive correlation signifying that the higher the height of the plant the greater the yield. The performance ranking of the accessions showed that AC01had the best overall performance while AC-05 had the least

Studies On The Adaptation Of Bambara Groundnut

Abstract: Field experiment was conducted on the adaptability of bambara groundnut in humid rain forest tropical zones with six local accesssions in a Randomized Complete Block Design with three replications. Data was collected on the yield and yield attributes, and analysed with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and means separated by least significant difference (LSD p=0.05). Correlation studies were carried out to determine the relationship between yield and yield attributes. Results of analysis of variance showed significant differences in plant height, canopy diameter and petiole length, and no significant differences in number of stems and dry matter weight (biomass) among accessions. Correlation analysis between yield attributes and fresh pod weight indicated positive correlation in all cases. However, plant height and number of stems had a near perfect positive correlation signifying that the higher the height of the plant the greater the yield. The performance ranking of the accessions showed that AC-01 had the best overall performance while AC-05 had the least

Factors affecting the reproductive performance of zebu cattle on the Adamawa Plateau

The reproduction of Gudali and Wakwa cattle are investigated. Reproduction data on Gudali and Wakwa cattle on Adamawa Plateau from 1967 to 1988 were analysed. Age at first calving was not affected by breed, year of birth and season of calving (P>.05). Mean calving interval (536.9 ± 17.3 days) was affected