Mediterranean circulation perturbations over the last five centuries: Relevance to past Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910 ± 12, 1812 ± 18, 1725 ± 25 and 1580 ± 30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales

Credit and business cycles’ relationship : evidence from Spain

This study provides evidence on the interaction between business and credit cycles in Spain during the period 1970–2014. The paper works on three analyses: the cycle turning points are identified; the main features of credit and business cycles are documented; and in both cycles the causal relationship is assessed. We find differences in the features of the business and credit cycle phases, which lead to a scant degree of synchronization over time. The lack of synchronization might be a sign that the cyclic interaction could be non-contemporaneous. Our results reveal that there is causation. A significant lagged rela- tionship between business and credit cycles is found; specifically, fluctuations of the business cycle lead fluctuations of the credit to non-financial corporations and a lag exists with respect to the fluctuations of the credit to households. We also examine episodes of credit boom and credit crunch. In the period 1970–2014, Spanish credit booms did not involve deeper business cycle contractions and credit crunches were not associated with deeper and longer business cycle contractions. These differences are related with the great importance of the real estate sector in Spain.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Chronicle of an early demise, surname extinction in the fifteenth and the seventeenth centuries

This is the Author’s Original Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History on 2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01615440.2018.1462747It has been amply demonstrated that individuals' reproductive capability is the key explanatory phenomenon for understanding onomastic disappearance during the early modern period. This article analyzes the evolution and consequences of surname extinction in a specific population: Catalonia in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. In this article two aspects are examined. First, the observed disappearance of surnames is estimated through historical data collected in the Llibres d'Esposalles (Marriage Books) from 1481 to 1600 at Barcelona Cathedral. Second, the estimated natural extinction of those surnames registered in 1481 is forecast by applying a statistical branching processResearch has been funded by Projects MTM2016-76969-P (Spanish State Research Agency, AEI) and MTM2013-41383-P (Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness), both co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), IAP network from Belgian Science Policy. Work of J. Ameijeiras-Alonso has been supported by the Ph.D. Grant BES-2014-071006 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and CompetitivenessNO

The macroeconomic effects of Government asset purchases: evidence from postwar US housing credit policy

We document the portfolio activity of federal housing agencies and provide evidence on its impact on mortgage markets and the economy. Through a narrative analysis, we identify historical policy changes leading to expansions or contractions in agency mortgage holdings. Based on those regulatory events that we classify as unrelated to short-run cyclical or credit market shocks, we find that an increase in mortgage purchases by the agencies boosts mortgage lending and lowers mortgage rates. Agency purchases influence prices in other asset markets and stimulate residential investment. Using information in GSE stock prices to construct an alternative instrument for agency purchasing activity yields very similar results as our benchmark narrative identification approach

Palaeoclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean explain genetic diversity of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

Past environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea have been proposed as main drivers of the current patterns of distribution of genetic structure of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, the foundation species of one of the most important ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. Yet, the location of cold climate refugia (persistence regions) for this species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is not clear, precluding the understanding of its biogeographical history. We used Ecological Niche Modelling together with existing phylogeographic data to locate Pleistocene refugia in the Mediterranean Sea and to develop a hypothetical past biogeographical distribution able to explain the genetic diversity presently found in P. oceanica meadows. To do that, we used an ensemble approach of six predictive algorithms and two Ocean General Circulation Models. The minimum SST in winter and the maximum SST in summer allowed us to hindcast the species range during the LGM. We found separate glacial refugia in each Mediterranean basin and in the Central region. Altogether, the results suggest that the Central region of the Mediterranean Sea was the most relevant cold climate refugium, supporting the hypothesis that long-term persistence there allowed the region to develop and retain its presently high proportion of the global genetic diversity of P. oceanica.Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) [SFRH/BPD/85040/2012]; FCT [UID/Multi/04326/2013, FCT-BIODIVERSA/004/2015]; Pew foundation (USA)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mediterranean circulation perturbations over the last five centuries : relevance to past Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910 ± 12, 1812 ± 18, 1725 ± 25 and 1580 ± 30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales

Detection and elimination of cellular bottlenecks in protein-producing yeasts

Yeasts are efficient cell factories and are commonly used for the production of recombinant proteins for biopharmaceutical and industrial purposes. For such products high levels of correctly folded proteins are needed, which sometimes requires improvement and engineering of the expression system. The article summarizes major breakthroughs that led to the efficient use of yeasts as production platforms and reviews bottlenecks occurring during protein production. Special focus is given to the metabolic impact of protein production. Furthermore, strategies that were shown to enhance secretion of recombinant proteins in different yeast species are presented

Introduction: new research in monetary history - A map

This handbook aims to provide a comprehensive (though obviously not exhaustive) picture of state-of-the-art international scholarship on the history of money and currency. The chapters of this handbook cover a wide selection of research topics. They span chronologically from antiquity to nowadays and are geographically stretched from Latin America to Asia, although most of them focus on Western Europe and the USA, as a large part of the existing research does. The authors of these chapters constitute, we hope, a balanced sample of various generations of scholars who contributed to what Barry Eichengreen defined as "the new monetary and financial history" – an approach that combines the analysis of monetary aggregates and policies with the structure and dynamics of the banking sector and financial markets. We have structured this handbook in ten broad thematic parts: the historical origins of money; money, coinage, and the state; trade, money markets, and international currencies; money and metals; monetary experiments; Asian monetary systems; exchange rate regimes; monetary integration; central banking and monetary policy; and aggregate price shocks. In this introduction, we offer for each part some historical context, a few key insights from the literature, and a brief analytical summary of each chapter. Our aim is to draw a map that hopefully will help readers to organize their journey through this very wide and diverse research area

Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts

This paper investigates the problem of constructing prediction regions for forecast trajectories 1 to H periods into the future—a path forecast. When the null model is only approximative, or completely unavailable, one cannot either derive the usual analytic expressions or resample from the null model. In this context, this paper derives a method for constructing approximate rectangular regions for simultaneous probability coverage that correct for serial correlation in the case of elliptical distributions. In both Monte Carlo studies and an empirical application to the Greenbook path-forecasts of growth and inflation, the performance of this method is compared to the performances of the Bonferroni approach and the approach which ignores simultaneity