Sudden change in long-term ocean climate fluctuations corresponds with ecosystem alterations and reduced recruitment in Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae)

Fish stocks vary in abundance. The causes behind the fluctuations may be difficult to determine, especially ones caused by natural fluctuations, but long‐term data series may provide indications of the mechanisms. Assessments show that the recruitment to the Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae) has remained low since 2004, a year which produced the last really rich year‐class. Long time‐series of estimated recruitment and mean winter temperature in the ocean showed a significant positive correlation for the period 1921–2004. Here, we show that this positive correlation did not continue from 2005 onwards as the winter temperature increased to high levels while herring recruitment decreased and has remained low. The density of zooplankton in the drift route of the herring larvae dropped significantly after 2004, and their centre of gravity shifted northwards. There may currently be heavy predation on the larvae by Atlanic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scombridae), and top‐down regulation is suggested to hamper successful recruitment. Our analysis indicates that the presence of food and overlap with high food concentrations are likely important regulators of survival in herring larvae. The findings may be important for future management and planning of fisheries of this stock because recruitment failure may continue if temperature remains high and food abundance remains low.publishedVersio

Marine ecosystem response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years) is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts) over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries

Density‐ and size‐dependent mortality in fish early life stages

The importance of survival and growth variations early in life for population dynamics depends on the degrees of compensatory density dependence and size dependence in survival at later life stages. Quantifying density‐ and size‐dependent mortality at different juvenile stages is therefore important to understand and potentially predict the recruitment to the population. We applied a statistical state‐space modelling approach to analyse time series of abundance and mean body size of larval and juvenile fish. The focus was to identify the importance of abundance and body size for growth and survival through successive larval and juvenile age intervals, and to quantify how the dynamics propagate through the early life to influence recruitment. We thus identified both relevant ages and mechanisms (i.e. density dependence and size dependence in survival and growth) linking recruitment variability to early life dynamics. The analysis was conducted on six economically and ecologically important fish populations from cold temperate and sub‐arctic marine ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of size for survival early in life. The comparative analysis suggests that size‐dependent mortality and density‐dependent growth frequently occur at a transition from pelagic to demersal habitats, which may be linked to competition for suitable habitat. The generality of this hypothesis warrants testing in future research.publishedVersio

Scale analysis suggests frequent skipping of the second reproductive season in Atlantic herring

A common assumption in fish studies is that iteroparous fishes, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. An analysis of scales from Norwegian spring-spawning herring collected between 1935 and 1973 revealed a strong under-representation (47% of expected) of second-time spawners on the spawning grounds. This reduction is not satisfactorily explained by errors in scale-reading, suggesting that the second reproductive season is frequently skipped. Skipping a season may relate to trade-offs between growth, current and future reproduction, and survival, which are likely to be particularly strong for young adult herring

Simulations of multi-beam sonar echos from schooling individual fish in a quiet environment

A model is developed and demonstrated for simulating echosounder and sonar observations of fish schools with specified shapes and composed of individuals having specified target strengths and behaviors. The model emulates the performances of actual multi-frequency echosounders and multi-beam echosounders and sonars and generates synthetic echograms of fish schools that can be compared with real echograms. The model enables acoustic observations of large in situ fish schools to be evaluated in terms of individual and aggregated fish behaviors. It also facilitates analyses of the sensitivity of fish biomass estimates to different target strength models and their parameterizations. To demonstrate how this tool may facilitate objective interpretations of acoustically estimated fish biomass and behavior, simulated echograms of fish with different spatial and orientation distributions are compared with real echograms of herring collected with a multibeam sonar aboard the research vessel “G.O. Sars.” Results highlight the important effects of fish-backscatter directivity, particularly when sensing with small acoustic wavelengths relative to the fish length. Results also show that directivity is both a potential obstacle to estimating fish biomass accurately and a potential source of information about fish behavior

Ocean climate prior to breeding affects the duration of the nestling period in the Atlantic puffin

Time-series covering 23 years for a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica L.) at Røst, northern Norway, was used to explore any indirect effects of climatic variations on chick production. By fitting statistical models on the duration of the nestling period, we found that it may be estimated using the average sea temperature and salinity at 0–20 m depth in March (having a positive and a negative effect, respectively). We propose that when the phytoplankton bloom occurs in early spring, adverse oceanographic conditions, i.e. low temperature and high salinity in March, have a negative effect on puffin reproduction by degradation of the prey availability (mainly Clupea harengus) for chick-feeding adults three months later

Detecting Atlantic herring by parametric sonar

The difference-frequency band of the Kongsberg TOPAS PS18 parametric sub-bottom profiling sonar, nominally 1–6 kHz, is being used to observe Atlantic herring. Representative TOPAS echograms of herring layers and schools observed in situ in December 2008 and November 2009 are presented. These agree well with echograms of volume backscattering strength derived simultaneously with the narrowband Simrad EK60/18- and 38-kHz scientific echo sounder, also giving insight into herring avoidance behavior in relation to survey vessel passage. Progress in rendering the TOPAS echograms quantitative is described