Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A (H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 - 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 - 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.</p

Increased risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1

Purpose: To determine the risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) using a Finnish nationwide cohort of individuals with NF1, and data from national registries.Methods: A Finnish cohort of 1,349 individuals with confirmed NF1 according to the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) diagnostic criteria was compared with a control cohort of 13,870 individuals matched for age, sex, and area of residence. Dementia-related hospital visits were retrieved from the Finnish Care Register for Health Care using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes G30 and F00-F03. Purchases of antidementia drugs were queried with Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification code N06D from the drug reimbursement register maintained by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland. The follow-up spanned 1998-2014.Results: Totals of 16 and 165 individuals with at least two dementia-related diagnoses or drug purchases were identified in the NF1 and control cohorts, respectively. The hazard ratio for dementia in NF1 was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-2.80, P = 0.050). In an analysis stratified by the type of dementia, the risk for Alzheimer disease was increased in NF1 compared to controls with a hazard ratio of 2.88 (95% CI 1.47-5.66, P = 0.002).Conclusion: Dementia and especially Alzheimer disease are previously unrecognized neurological complications of NF1.© 2021. The Author(s).</p

Multiple Colonization with S. pneumoniae before and after Introduction of the Seven-Valent Conjugated Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine

Simultaneous carriage of more than one strain of Streptococcus pneumoniae promotes horizontal gene transfer events and may lead to capsule switch and acquisition of antibiotic resistance. We studied the epidemiology of cocolonization with S. pneumoniae before and after introduction of the seven-valent conjugated pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7)

Shape coexistence in Hg-178

Lifetime measurements of excited states in Hg-178 have been performed using the Rh-103(Kr-78, p2n) reaction at a beam energy of 354 MeV. The recoil-decay tagging (RDT) technique was applied to select the Hg-178 nuclei and associate the prompt gamma rays with the correlated characteristic ground-state alpha decay. Lifetimes of the four lowest yrast states of Hg-178 have been determined using the recoil distance Doppler-shift (RDDS) method. The experimental data are compared to theoretical predictions with focus on shape coexistence. The results confirm the shift of the deformed prolate structures to higher lying states but also indicate their increasing deformation with decreasing neutron number.Peer reviewe

Cross section measurements in the \u3csup\u3e12\u3c/sup\u3eC+\u3csup\u3e12\u3c/sup\u3eC system

The 12C+12C fusion reaction is one of the most important for nuclear astrophysics since it determines the carbon ignition in stellar environments. Two experiments which make use of the gamma-particle coincidence technique to measure the 12C+12C S-factors at deep sub barrier energies are discussed. Results are presented showing a decrease of the S-factor below Ec.m. = 3 MeV

Dynamic causal modelling for EEG and MEG

Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) is an approach first introduced for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to quantify effective connectivity between brain areas. Recently, this framework has been extended and established in the magneto/encephalography (M/EEG) domain. DCM for M/EEG entails the inversion a full spatiotemporal model of evoked responses, over multiple conditions. This model rests on a biophysical and neurobiological generative model for electrophysiological data. A generative model is a prescription of how data are generated. The inversion of a DCM provides conditional densities on the model parameters and, indeed on the model itself. These densities enable one to answer key questions about the underlying system. A DCM comprises two parts; one part describes the dynamics within and among neuronal sources, and the second describes how source dynamics generate data in the sensors, using the lead-field. The parameters of this spatiotemporal model are estimated using a single (iterative) Bayesian procedure. In this paper, we will motivate and describe the current DCM framework. Two examples show how the approach can be applied to M/EEG experiments

Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi:a modelling study

Background In November 2011, Malawi introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the routine infant schedule. Four to 7 years after introduction (2015–2018), rolling prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys were performed in the city of Blantyre. Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine serotypes (VT) remained higher than reported in high-income countries, and impact was asymmetric across age groups. Methods A dynamic transmission model was fit to survey data using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach, to obtain insights into the determinants of post-PCV13 age-specific VT carriage. Results Accumulation of naturally acquired immunity with age and age-specific transmission potential were both key to reproducing the observed data. VT carriage reduction peaked sequentially over time, earlier in younger and later in older age groups. Estimated vaccine efficacy (protection against carriage) was 66.87% (95% CI 50.49–82.26%), similar to previous estimates. Ten-year projected vaccine impact (VT carriage reduction) among 0–9 years old was lower than observed in other settings, at 76.23% (CI 95% 68.02–81.96%), with sensitivity analyses demonstrating this to be mainly driven by a high local force of infection. Conclusions There are both vaccine-related and host-related determinants of post-PCV13 pneumococcal VT transmission in Blantyre with vaccine impact determined by an age-specific, local force of infection. These findings are likely to be generalisable to other Sub-Saharan African countries in which PCV impact on carriage (and therefore herd protection) has been lower than desired, and have implications for the interpretation of post-PCV carriage studies and future vaccination programs.</p

Kin-cohort estimates for familial breast cancer risk in relation to variants in DNA base excision repair, BRCA1 interacting and growth factor genes

BACKGROUND: Subtle functional deficiencies in highly conserved DNA repair or growth regulatory processes resulting from polymorphic variation may increase genetic susceptibility to breast cancer. Polymorphisms in DNA repair genes can impact protein function leading to genomic instability facilitated by growth stimulation and increased cancer risk. Thus, 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in eight genes involved in base excision repair (XRCC1, APEX, POLD1), BRCA1 protein interaction (BRIP1, ZNF350, BRCA2), and growth regulation (TGFß1, IGFBP3) were evaluated. METHODS: Genomic DNA samples were used in Taqman 5'-nuclease assays for most SNPs. Breast cancer risk to ages 50 and 70 were estimated using the kin-cohort method in which genotypes of relatives are inferred based on the known genotype of the index subject and Mendelian inheritance patterns. Family cancer history data was collected from a series of genotyped breast cancer cases (N = 748) identified within a cohort of female US radiologic technologists. Among 2,430 female first-degree relatives of cases, 190 breast cancers were reported. RESULTS: Genotypes associated with increased risk were: XRCC1 R194W (WW and RW vs. RR, cumulative risk up to age 70, risk ratio (RR) = 2.3; 95% CI 1.3–3.8); XRCC1 R399Q (QQ vs. RR, cumulative risk up to age 70, RR = 1.9; 1.1–3.9); and BRIP1 (or BACH1) P919S (SS vs. PP, cumulative risk up to age 50, RR = 6.9; 1.6–29.3). The risk for those heterozygous for BRCA2 N372H and APEX D148E were significantly lower than risks for homozygotes of either allele, and these were the only two results that remained significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons. No associations with breast cancer were observed for: APEX Q51H; XRCC1 R280H; IGFPB3 -202A>C; TGFß1 L10P, P25R, and T263I; BRCA2 N289H and T1915M; BRIP1 -64A>C; and ZNF350 (or ZBRK1) 1845C>T, L66P, R501S, and S472P. CONCLUSION: Some variants in genes within the base-excision repair pathway (XRCC1) and BRCA1 interacting proteins (BRIP1) may play a role as low penetrance breast cancer risk alleles. Previous association studies of breast cancer and BRCA2 N372H and functional observations for APEX D148E ran counter to our findings of decreased risks. Due to the many comparisons, cautious interpretation and replication of these relationships are warranted

Association between the NBS1 E185Q polymorphism and cancer risk: a meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>NBS1 is a key DNA repair protein in the homologous recombination repair pathway and a signal modifier in the intra-S phase checkpoint that plays important roles in maintaining genomic stability. The <it>NBS1 </it>8360G>C (<it>Glu185Gln</it>) is one of the most commonly studied polymorphisms of the gene for their association with risk of cancers, but the results are conflicting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a meta-analysis using 16 eligible case-control studies (including 17 data sets) with a total of 9,734 patients and 10,325 controls to summarize the data on the association between the <it>NBS1 </it>8360G>C (E185Q) polymorphism and cancer risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared with the common 8360GG genotype, the carriers of variant genotypes (i.e., 8360 GC/CC) had a 1.06-fold elevated risk of cancer (95% CI = 1.00–1.12, <it>P </it>= 0.05) in a dominant genetic model as estimated in a fixed effect model. However, the association was not found in an additive genetic model (CC <it>vs </it>GG) (odds ratio, OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.85–1.13, <it>P </it>= 0.78) nor in a recessive genetic model (CC <it>vs </it>GC +GG) (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.82–1.07, <it>P </it>= 0.36). The effect of the 8360G>C (E185Q) polymorphism was further evaluated in stratification analysis. It was demonstrated that the increased risk of cancer associated with 8360G>C variant genotypes was more pronounced in the Caucasians (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01–1.14, <it>P </it>= 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our meta-analysis suggests that the <it>NBS1 </it>E185Q variant genotypes (8360 <it>GC/CC</it>) might be associated with an increased risk of cancer, especially in Caucasians.</p

Genome-wide and Ordered-Subset linkage analyses provide support for autism loci on 17q and 19p with evidence of phenotypic and interlocus genetic correlates

BACKGROUND: Autism is a neurobehavioral spectrum of phenotypes characterized by deficits in the development of language and social relationships and patterns of repetitive, rigid and compulsive behaviors. Twin and family studies point to a significant genetic etiology, and several groups have performed genomic linkage screens to identify susceptibility loci. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide linkage screen in 158 combined Tufts, Vanderbilt and AGRE (Autism Genetics Research Exchange) multiplex autism families using parametric and nonparametric methods with a categorical autism diagnosis to identify loci of main effect. Hypothesizing interdependence of genetic risk factors prompted us to perform exploratory studies applying the Ordered-Subset Analysis (OSA) approach using LOD scores as the trait covariate for ranking families. We employed OSA to test for interlocus correlations between loci with LOD scores ≥1.5, and empirically determined significance of linkage in optimal OSA subsets using permutation testing. Exploring phenotypic correlates as the basis for linkage increases involved comparison of mean scores for quantitative trait-based subsets of autism between optimal subsets and the remaining families. RESULTS: A genome-wide screen for autism loci identified the best evidence for linkage to 17q11.2 and 19p13, with maximum multipoint heterogeneity LOD scores of 2.9 and 2.6, respectively. Suggestive linkage (LOD scores ≥1.5) at other loci included 3p, 6q, 7q, 12p, and 16p. OSA revealed positive correlations of linkage between the 19p locus and 17q, between 19p and 6q, and between 7q and 5p. While potential phenotypic correlates for these findings were not identified for the chromosome 7/5 combination, differences indicating more rapid achievement of "developmental milestones" was apparent in the chromosome 19 OSA-defined subsets for 17q and 6q. OSA was used to test the hypothesis that 19p linkage involved more rapid achievement of these milestones and it revealed significantly increased LOD* scores at 19p13. CONCLUSIONS: Our results further support 19p13 as harboring an autism susceptibility locus, confirm other linkage findings at 17q11.2, and demonstrate the need to analyze more discreet trait-based subsets of complex phenotypes to improve ability to detect genetic effects