Strong inference from transect sign surveys : combining spatial autocorrelation and misclassification occupancy models to quantify the detectability of a recovering carnivore

Acknowledgements We are very grateful for the input provided by Elizabeth Croose, Declan O'Mahony and Denise O'Meara on pine marten survey methodology and related constraints, which we hope this paper will go some way toward relieving. Christopher Sutherland was incredibly helpful in discussion of occupancy modelling techniques. We would also like to thank Thys Simpson, Colin McClean and Shaila Rao for arranging access to private estates for surveying. Funding — Forest Enterprise Scotland and the University of Aberdeen provided funding for the project. The Carnegie Trust supported the lead author, E. McHenry, in this research through the award of a tuition fees bursary.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues

The Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON): the evolution of grassroots network science

Nine years later, with over 380 members from 40 countries, and 50 publications to its credit, GLEON is growing at a rapid pace and pushing the boundaries of the practice of network science. GLEON is really three networks: a network of lakes, data, and peopl

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes

Ecology under lake ice

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer ‘growing seasons’. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under‐ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter‐summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake‐specific, species‐specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass

Quality in care homes: How wearable devices and social network analysis might help

Social network analysis can support quality improvement in care homes but traditional approaches to social network analysis are not always feasible in care homes. Recalling contacts and movements in a home is difficult for residents and staff and documentary and other sources of individual contacts can be unreliable. Bluetooth enabled wearable devices are a potential means of generating reliable, trustworthy, social network data in care home communities. In this paper, we explore the empirical, theoretical and real-world potential and difficulties in using Bluetooth enabled wearables with residents and staff in care homes for quality improvement. We demonstrate, for the first time, that a relatively simple system built around the Internet of Things, Bluetooth enabled wearables for residents and staff and passive location devices (the CONTACT intervention) can capture social networks and data in homes, enabling social network analysis, measures, statistics and visualisations. Unexpected variations in social network measures and patterns are surfaced, alongside “uncomfortable” information concerning staff time spent with residents. We show how technology might also help identify those most in need of social contact in a home. The possibilities of technology-enabled social network analysis must be balanced against the implementation-related challenges associated with introducing innovations in complex social systems such as care homes. Behavioural challenges notwithstanding, we argue that armed with social network information, care home staff could better tailor, plan and evaluate the effects of quality improvement with the sub-communities that make up a care home community

Invasive genetic rescue: dispersal following repeated culling reinforces the genetic diversity of an invasive mammal

Since its introduction from the United States in 1876, the invasive North American Eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) has contributed to the decline of the native Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) in Britain. The aim of this study was to assess the overall impact of repeated control efforts carried out between 2011 and 2020 on the genetic diversity of the grey squirrel population in north Wales. This information can be used to inform future adaptive management plans, increasing the success of invasive species control efforts and enhancing red squirrel conservation efforts. Using a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA analysis, we found high genetic diversity in both marker types, with six diverse mtDNA haplotypes found and relatively high levels of nuclear genetic diversity, even after repeated culling efforts. We also found that repeated introductions from multiple locations in North America have generated a genetically diverse population in Britain today, compounding the management of this invasive species. Our results suggest that ongoing grey squirrel control efforts may not adequately reduce genetic diversity to a level where it contributes to a long-term population decline, and highlights the need to gather all available information, including historical and contemporary, to effectively create a plan for control efforts of invasive species

Increased winter drownings in ice-covered regions with warmer winters

Winter activities on ice are culturally important for many countries, yet they constitute a high safety risk depending upon the stability of the ice. Because consistently cold periods are required to form stable and thick ice, warmer winters could degrade ice conditions and increase the likelihood of falling through the ice. This study provides the first large-scale assessment of winter drowning from 10 Northern Hemisphere countries. We documented over 4000 winter drowning events. Winter drownings increased exponentially in regions with warmer winters when air temperatures neared 0 ̊C. The largest number of drownings occurred when winter air temperatures were between -5 ̊C and 0 ̊C, when ice is less stable, and also in regions where indigenous traditions and livelihood require extended time on ice. Rates of drowning were greatest late in the winter season when ice stability declines. Children and adults up to the age of 39 were at the highest risk of winter drownings. Beyond temperature, differences in cultures, regulations, and human behaviours can be important additional risk factors. Our findings indicate the potential for increased human mortality with warmer winter air temperatures. Incorporating drowning prevention plans would improve adaptation strategies to a changing climate.Funding was provided to SS by the Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science Early Researcher Award and York University Research Chair programme. Funding support for BAD was provided by Kempestiftelserna. AL was supported by Estonian Research Council Grant PSG 32. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Funding was provided to SS by the Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science Early Researcher Award and York University Research Chair programme. Funding support for BAD was provided by Kempestiftelserna. AL was supported by Estonian Research Council Grant PSG 32. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

1,4-dihydroxy quininib activates ferroptosis pathways in metastatic uveal melanoma and reveals a novel prognostic biomarker signature

Uveal melanoma (UM) is an ocular cancer, with propensity for lethal liver metastases. When metastatic UM (MUM) occurs, as few as 8% of patients survive beyond two years. Efficacious treatments for MUM are urgently needed. 1,4-dihydroxy quininib, a cysteinyl leukotriene receptor 1 (CysLT1) antagonist, alters UM cancer hallmarks in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo. Here, we investigated the 1,4-dihydroxy quininib mechanism of action and its translational potential in MUM. Proteomic profiling of OMM2.5 cells identified proteins differentially expressed after 1,4-dihydroxy quininib treatment. Glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4), glutamate-cysteine ligase modifier subunit (GCLM), heme oxygenase 1 (HO-1) and 4 hydroxynonenal (4-HNE) expression were assessed by immunoblots. Biliverdin, glutathione and lipid hydroperoxide were measured biochemically. Association between the expression of a specific ferroptosis signature and UM patient survival was performed using public databases. Our data revealed that 1,4-dihydroxy quininib modulates the expression of ferroptosis markers in OMM2.5 cells. Biochemical assays validated that GPX4, biliverdin, GCLM, glutathione and lipid hydroperoxide were significantly altered. HO-1 and 4-HNE levels were significantly increased in MUM tumor explants from orthotopic patient-derived xenografts (OPDX). Expression of genes inhibiting ferroptosis is significantly increased in UM patients with chromosome 3 monosomy. We identified IFerr, a novel ferroptosis signature correlating with UM patient survival. Altogether, we demontrated that in MUM cells and tissues, 1,4-dihydroxy quininib modulates key markers that induce ferroptosis, a relatively new type of cell death driven by iron-dependent peroxidation of phospholipids. Furthermore, we showed that high expression of specific genes inhibiting ferroptosis is associated with a worse UM prognosis, thus, the IFerr signature is a potential prognosticator for which patients develop MUM. All in all, ferroptosis has potential as a clinical biomarker and therapeutic target for MUM

Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland : an observational record-linkage study

This work was funded by Northwood Charitable Trust and by the Strategic Priority Fund “Tackling multimorbidity at scale” programme (grant number MR/W014432/1) delivered by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research in partnership with the Economic and Social Research Council and in collaboration with the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.Background Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). Results Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4–17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3–3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8–11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4–24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9–31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48–1.82). Conclusions Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe