On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. <br><br> Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. <br><br> Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. <br><br> We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions vs. low CO<sub>2</sub> emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi, ±3.6 days century<sup>−1</sup> for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> and 5.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> depending on model structure. <br><br> We quantified the impact of uncertainties in bud-burst forecasts on simulated photosynthetic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and evapotranspiration (ET) using a process-based terrestrial biosphere model. Uncertainty in phenology model structure led to uncertainty in the description of forest seasonality, which accumulated to uncertainty in annual model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET of 9.6% and 2.9%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that a variation of ±10 days in bud-burst dates led to a variation of ±5.0% for annual GPP and about ±2.0% for ET. <br><br> For phenology models, differences among future climate scenarios (i.e. driver) represent the largest source of uncertainty, followed by uncertainties related to model structure, and finally, related to model parameterization. The uncertainties we have quantified will affect the description of the seasonality of ecosystem processes and in particular the simulation of carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, with a larger impact of uncertainties related to phenology model structure, followed by uncertainties related to phenological model parameterization

Disruption of pre-mRNA splicing in vivo results in reorganization of splicing factors

We have examined the functional significance of the organization of pre-mRNA splicing factors in a speckled distribution in the mammalian cell nucleus. Upon microinjection into living cells of oligonucleotides or antibodies that inhibit pre-mRNA splicing in vitro, we observed major changes in the organization of splicing factors in vivo. Interchromatin granule clusters became uniform in shape, decreased in number, and increased in both size and content of splicing factors, as measured by immunofluorescence. These changes were transient and the organization of splicing factors returned to their normal distribution by 24 h following microinjection. Microinjection of these oligonucleotides or antibodies also resulted in a reduction of transcription in vivo, but the oligonucleotides did not inhibit transcription in vitro. Control oligonucleotides did not disrupt splicing or transcription in vivo. We propose that the reorganization of splicing factors we observed is the result of the inhibition of splicing in vivo

DNA Methylation of the ABO Promoter Underlies Loss of ABO Allelic Expression in a Significant Proportion of Leukemic Patients

Background: Loss of A, B and H antigens from the red blood cells of patients with myeloid malignancies is a frequent occurrence. Previously, we have reported alterations in ABH antigens on the red blood cells of 55% of patients with myeloid malignancies. Methodology/Principal Findings: To determine the underlying molecular mechanisms of this loss, we assessed ABO allelic expression in 21 patients with ABH antigen loss previously identified by flow cytometric analysis as well as an additional 7 patients detected with ABH antigen changes by serology. When assessing ABO mRNA allelic expression, 6/12 (50%) patients with ABH antigen loss detected by flow cytometry and 5/7 (71%) of the patients with ABH antigen loss detected by serology had a corresponding ABO mRNA allelic loss of expression. We examined the ABO locus for copy number and DNA methylation alterations in 21 patients, 11 with loss of expression of one or both ABO alleles, and 10 patients with no detectable allelic loss of ABO mRNA expression. No loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at the ABO locus was observed in these patients. However in 8/11 (73%) patients with loss of ABO allelic expression, the ABO promoter was methylated compared with 2/10 (20%) of patients with no ABO allelic expression loss (P = 0.03). Conclusions/Significance: We have found that loss of ABH antigens in patients with hematological malignancies is associated with a corresponding loss of ABO allelic expression in a significant proportion of patients. Loss of ABO allelic expression was strongly associated with DNA methylation of the ABO promoter.Tina Bianco-Miotto, Damian J. Hussey, Tanya K. Day, Denise S. O'Keefe and Alexander Dobrovi

A plesiosaur containing an ichthyosaur embryo as stomach contents from the Sundance Formation of the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming

Herein we report the discovery of an ichthyosaur embryo from the Upper Member of the Sundance Formation (Oxfordian) of the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. The specimen is the first known ichthyosaur embryo from the Upper Jurassic, and is the first Jurassic ichthyosaur embryo from North America. The embryo was discovered in close association with the abdomen of an articulated partial plesiosaur skeleton, and several lines of evidence support the interpretation of the embryo as plesiosaur stomach contents. The small size and extremely poor ossification of the embryo indicate that the animal was probably not a neonate. Although the taxonomic affinities of the fossil are unknown, the large ichthyosaurian (sensu stricto) Opthalmosaurus natans is the only known ichthyosaur from the Sundance Formation, and the embryo may belong to that taxon

Gas emissions, minerals, and tars associated with three coal fires, Powder River Basin, USA.

Ground-based surveys of three coal fires and airborne surveys of two of the fires were conducted near Sheridan, Wyoming. The fires occur in natural outcrops and in abandoned mines, all containing Paleocene-age subbituminous coals. Diffuse (carbon dioxide (CO(2)) only) and vent (CO(2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane, hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), and elemental mercury) emission estimates were made for each of the fires. Additionally, gas samples were collected for volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis and showed a large range in variation between vents. The fires produce locally dangerous levels of CO, CO(2), H(2)S, and benzene, among other gases. At one fire in an abandoned coal mine, trends in gas and tar composition followed a change in topography. Total CO(2) fluxes for the fires from airborne, ground-based, and rate of fire advancement estimates ranged from 0.9 to 780mg/s/m(2) and are comparable to other coal fires worldwide. Samples of tar and coal-fire minerals collected from the mouth of vents provided insight into the behavior and formation of the coal fires

The time-dependent expression of keratins 5 and 13 during the reepithelialization of human skin wounds

The time-dependent reepithelialization of 55 human surgical skin wounds with a wound age between 8h and more than 2 months was investigated by the immunohistochemical localization of cytokeratins 5 and 13. A complete, rebuilt epidermal layer over the wound area was first detectable in a 5-day-old wound, while all wounds of more than 18 days duration contained a completely reepithelialized wound area. Between 5 and 18 days the basal layer of keratinocytes showed — in contrast to normal skin — only some cells positive for cytokeratin 5. In some, but not all lesions with a wound age of 13 days or more, a basal cell layer completely staining for cytokeratin 5 was demonstrable. This staining pattern was found in all skin wounds with a wound age of more than 23 days. The immunohistochemical detection of cytokeratin 13 which can be observed regularly in non-cornifying squamous epithelia provides no information for the time-estimation of human skin wounds, since no significant temporary expression of this polypeptide seems to occur during the healing of human skin wounds

Acoustic Emission from crumpling paper

From magnetic systems to the crust of the earth, many physical systems that exibit a multiplicty of metastable states emit pulses with a broad power law distribution in energy. Digital audio recordings reveal that paper being crumpled, a system that can be easily held in hand, is such a system. Crumpling paper both using the traditional hand method and a novel cylindrical geometry uncovered a power law distribution of pulse energies spanning at least two decades: (exponent 1.3 - 1.6) Crumpling initally flat sheets into a compact ball (strong crumpling), we found little or no evidence that the energy distribution varied systematically over time or the size of the sheet. When we applied repetitive small deformations (weak crumpling) to sheets which had been previously folded along a regular grid, we found no systematic dependence on the grid spacing. Our results suggest that the pulse energy depends only weakly on the size of the paper regions responsible for sound production.Comment: 12 pages of text, 9 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. E, additional information availible at http://www.msc.cornell.edu/~houle/crumpling

Thrombospondin-2 Influences the Proportion of Cartilage and Bone During Fracture Healing

Thrombospondin-2 (TSP2) is a matricellular protein with increased expression during growth and regeneration. TSP2-null mice show accelerated dermal wound healing and enhanced bone formation. We hypothesized that bone regeneration would be enhanced in the absence of TSP2. Closed, semistabilized transverse fractures were created in the tibias of wildtype (WT) and TSP2-null mice. The fractures were examined 5, 10, and 20 days after fracture using μCT, histology, immunohistochemistry, quantitative RT-PCR, and torsional mechanical testing. Ten days after fracture, TSP2-null mice showed 30% more bone by μCT and 40% less cartilage by histology. Twenty days after fracture, TSP2-null mice showed reduced bone volume fraction and BMD. Mice were examined 5 days after fracture during the stage of neovascularization and mesenchymal cell influx to determine a cellular explanation for the phenotype. TSP2-null mice showed increased cell proliferation with no difference in apoptosis in the highly cellular fracture callus. Although mature bone and cartilage is minimal 5 days after fracture, TSP2-null mice had reduced expression of collagen IIa and Sox9 (chondrocyte differentiation markers) but increased expression of osteocalcin and osterix (osteoblast differentiation markers). Importantly, TSP2-null mice had a 2-fold increase in vessel density that corresponded with a reduction in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and Glut-1 (markers of hypoxia inducible factor [HIF]-regulated transcription). Finally, by expressing TSP2 using adenovirus starting 3 days after fracture, chondrogenesis was restored in TSP2-null mice. We hypothesize that TSP2 expressed by cells in the fracture mesenchyme regulates callus vascularization. The increase in vascularity increases tissue oxemia and decreases HIF; thus, undifferentiated cells in the callus develop into osteoblasts rather than chondrocytes. This leads to an alternative strategy for achieving fracture healing with reduced endochondral ossification and enhanced appositional bone formation. Controlling the ratio of cartilage to bone during fracture healing has important implications for expediting healing or promoting regeneration in nonunions