Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

Fluorinated cyclohexanes: Synthesis of amine building blocks of the all- cis 2,3,5,6-tetrafluorocyclohexylamine motif

This paper reports the synthesis of three amine stereoisomers 5a–c of the tetrafluorocyclohexyl ring system, as building blocks for discovery chemistry programmes. The synthesis starts from a Birch reduction of benzonitrile, followed by an in situ methyl iodide quench. The resultant 2,5-cyclohexadiene was progressed via double epoxidations and then hydrofluorination ring opening reactions. The resultant fluorohydrin moieties were then converted to different stereoisomers of the tetrafluorocyclohexyl ring system, and then reductive hydrogenation of the nitrile delivered three amine stereoisomers. It proved necessary to place a methyl group on the cyclohexane ring in order to stabilise the compound against subsequent HF elimination. The two all-cis tetrafluorocyclohexyl isomers 5a and 5b constitute facially polarized cyclohexane rings, with fluorines on the electronegative face and hydrogens on the electropositive face

Supporting User-Defined Functions on Uncertain Data

Uncertain data management has become crucial in many sensing and scientific applications. As user-defined functions (UDFs) become widely used in these applications, an important task is to capture result uncertainty for queries that evaluate UDFs on uncertain data. In this work, we provide a general framework for supporting UDFs on uncertain data. Specifically, we propose a learning approach based on Gaussian processes (GPs) to compute approximate output distributions of a UDF when evaluated on uncertain input, with guaranteed error bounds. We also devise an online algorithm to compute such output distributions, which employs a suite of optimizations to improve accuracy and performance. Our evaluation using both real-world and synthetic functions shows that our proposed GP approach can outperform the state-of-the-art sampling approach with up to two orders of magnitude improvement for a variety of UDFs. 1

A novel role for CRIM1 in the corneal response to UV and pterygium development

Pterygium is a pathological proliferative condition of the ocular surface, characterised by formation of a highly vascularised, fibrous tissue arising from the limbus that invades the central cornea leading to visual disturbance and, if untreated, blindness. Whilst chronic ultraviolet (UV) light exposure plays a major role in its pathogenesis, higher susceptibility to pterygium is observed in some families, suggesting a genetic component. In this study, a Northern Irish family affected by pterygium but reporting little direct exposure to UV was identified carrying a missense variant in CRIM1 NM_016441.2: c.1235 A > C (H412P) through whole-exome sequencing and subsequent analysis. CRIM1 is expressed in the developing eye, adult cornea and conjunctiva, having a role in cell differentiation and migration but also in angiogenesis, all processes involved in pterygium formation. We demonstrate elevated CRIM1 expression in pterygium tissue from additional individual Northern Irish patients compared to unaffected conjunctival controls. UV irradiation of HCE-S cells resulted in an increase in ERK phosphorylation and CRIM1 expression, the latter further elevated by the addition of the MEK1/2 inhibitor, U0126. Conversely, siRNA knockdown of CRIM1 led to decreased UV-induced ERK phosphorylation and increased BCL2 expression. Transient expression of the mutant H412P CRIM1 in corneal epithelial HCE-S cells showed that, unlike wild-type CRIM1, it was unable to reduce the cell proliferation, increased ERK phosphorylation and apoptosis induced through a decrease of BCL2 expression levels. We propose here a series of intracellular events where CRIM1 regulation of the ERK pathway prevents UV-induced cell proliferation and may play an important role in the in the pathogenesis of pterygium

1-Bromo­acetyl-2,6-bis­(4-methoxy­phen­yl)-3,5-dimethyl­piperidin-4-one

In the title compound, C23H26BrNO4, the piperidinone ring adopts a boat conformation. The dihedral angle between the two benzene rings is 70.9 (1)°. The two meth­oxy groups are close to coplanar with the attached benzene rings [C—C—O—C torsion angles of 6.3 (5) and 16.4 (4)°]. A weak C—H⋯Br intra­molecular inter­action is observed. In the crystal structure, mol­ecules are linked into a chain along [101] by inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds. A short inter­molecular Br⋯O contact [3.063 (2) Å] is observed

Bayesian Inference in Processing Experimental Data: Principles and Basic Applications

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; Monte Carlo estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures, invited paper for Reports on Progress in Physic

Principles for non-ionizing radiation protection

In this statement, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) presents its principles for protection against adverse health effects from exposure to non-ionizing radiation. These are based upon the principles for protection against ionizing radiation of the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in order to come to a comprehensive and consistent system of protection throughout the entire electromagnetic spectrum. The statement further contains information about ICNIRP and the processes it uses in setting exposure guidelines

Light-emitting diodes (LEDS): Implications for safety

Since the original ICNIRP Statement was published in 2000, there have been significant improvements in the efficiency and radiance (i.e., optical radiation emission) of LEDs. The most important improvement is the development of 'white' LEDs that can be used as general lighting sources, which are more efficient than traditional lighting sources. LEDs emitting in the ultraviolet wavelength region have also become available and have made their way into consumer products. All these changes have led to a rise in concern for the safety of the optical radiation emissions from LEDs. Several in vitro and animal studies have been conducted, which indicate that blue and white LEDs can potentially cause retinal cell damage under high irradiance and lengthy exposure conditions. However, these studies cannot be directly extrapolated to normal exposure conditions for humans, and equivalent effects can also be caused by the optical radiation from other light sources under extreme exposure conditions. Acute damage to the human retina from typical exposure to blue or white LEDs has not been demonstrated. Concern for potential long-term effects, e.g. age-related macular degeneration (AMD), remains based on epidemiological studies indicating a link between high levels of exposure to sunlight and AMD. When evaluating the optical radiation safety of LEDs, it has now been established that published safety standards for lamps, not lasers, should be applied. Thus far, the only clear, acute adverse health effects from LEDs are those due to temporal light modulation (including flicker). Glare can also create visual disturbances when LED light fixtures are not properly designed. Further research is needed on potential health effects from short- and long-term exposure to new and emerging lighting technologies

Present and Future CP Measurements

We review theoretical and experimental results on CP violation summarizing the discussions in the working group on CP violation at the UK phenomenology workshop 2000 in Durham.Comment: 104 pages, Latex, to appear in Journal of Physics