A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described

The Jurisdictional Difficulties of Defining Charter-School Teachers Unions Under Current Labor Law

As charter schools have flourished in form, they have also evolved in variety: parents can send their children to a trilingual immersion school or a school whose classes meet entirely online. The same flexibility that charters offer as an alternative to traditional public schools also makes them difficult to classify for purposes of labor law. When charter-school teachers form a union, it is not clear why the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), and not a state labor analogue, should have jurisdiction over a charter-school labor dispute. And yet, the NLRB has asserted jurisdiction in most charter-school cases. This Note examines the NLRB’s test for determining whether the broad protections of the National Labor Relations Act apply to a group of workers in the context of charter-school employees. It proposes a more robust test for differentiating between charter schools for purposes of the Act, and it applies the test to two charter schools

Handbook for in-service teacher training

This Handbook for in-service teacher training is one of the outcomes of the EHISTO (European history crossroads as pathways to intercultural and media education) project. It is intended for use by teacher instructors in both the University context and local institutions during in-service teacher training. The handbook is made up of two parts: - Part 1 introduces the reader to the main project outcomes both in terms of methodological approach to the development of intercultural and media-critical competencies among pupils, and in terms of didactical strategies and materials to be used in Secondary School History classrooms. - Part 2 proposes the design of a course devoted to Secondary School in-service teachers, with the aim of providing participants with both a framework, as well as suggestions for practical use of the learning material in the EHISTO Learning Objects (LOs).This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein

Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior

How sensorimotor interaction shapes and supports young children's gestural communication around science

Research has demonstrated that gesture produced during conversation can provide insights into scientific thinking and can aid scientific communication in adults and school-aged children. However, to date, there has been a limited exploration into the role of gesture in supporting young children’s science communication, and how this is underpinned and shaped by their sensorimotor experiences. This study examines, identifies and conceptualises ways in which children spontaneously used gesture during their interaction-orientated discourse and how this mapped to their action experiences at a water table. Findings show how gestural communication in children under 5 years of age can convey different levels of complexity related to science thinking

The role of embodied scaffolding in revealing “enactive potentialities” in intergenerational science exploration

Although adults are known to play an important role in young children's development, little work has focused on the enactive features of scaffolding in informal learning settings, and the embodied dynamics of intergenerational interaction. To address this gap, this paper undertakes a microinteractional analysis to examine intergenerational collaborative interaction in a science museum setting. The paper presents a fine-grained moment-by-moment analysis of video-recorded interaction of children and their adult carers around science-themed objects. Taking an enactive cognition perspective, the analysis enables access to subtle shifts in interactants’ perception, action, gesture, and movement to examine how young children engage with exhibits, and the role adult action plays in supporting young children's engagement with exhibits and developing ideas about science. Our findings demonstrate that intergenerational “embodied scaffolding” is instrumental in making “enactive potentialities” in the environment more accessible for children, thus deepening and enriching children's engagement with science. Adult action is central to revealing scientific dimensions of objects’ interaction and relationships in ways that expose novel types of perception and action opportunities in shaping science experiences and meaning making. This has implications for science education practices since it foregrounds not only “doing” science, through active hands-on activities, but also speaks to the interconnectedness between senses and the role of the body in thinking. Drawing on the findings, this paper also offers design implications for informal science learning environments

Tick-borne encephalitis vaccine effectiveness and barriers to vaccination in Germany

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) vaccination coverage remains low in Germany. Our case–control study (2018–2020) aimed to examine reasons for low vaccine uptake, vaccine effectiveness (VE), and vaccine breakthrough infections (VBIs). Telephone interviews (581 cases, 975 matched controls) covered vaccinations, vaccination barriers, and confounders identified with directed acyclic graphs. Multivariable logistic regression determined VE as 1—odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We additionally calculated VE with the Screening method using routine surveillance and vaccination coverage data. Main vaccination barriers were poor risk perception and fear of adverse events. VE was 96.6% (95% CI 93.7–98.2) for ≥ 3 doses and manufacturer-recommended dosing intervals. Without boosters, VE after ≥ 3 doses at ≤ 10 years was 91.2% (95% CI 82.7–95.6). VE was similar for homologous/heterologous vaccination. Utilising routine surveillance data, VE was comparable (≥ 3 doses: 92.8%). VBIs (n = 17, 2.9% of cases) were older, had more comorbidities and higher severity than unvaccinated cases. However, only few VBIs were diagnostically confirmed; 57% of re-tested vaccinated cases (≥ 1 dose, n = 54) proved false positive. To increase TBE vaccine uptake, communication efforts should address complacency and increase confidence in the vaccines’ safety. The observed duration of high VE may inform decision-makers to consider extending booster intervals to 10 years.Peer Reviewe

Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk Increases with Dog Ownership, Frequent Walks, and Gardening: A Case-Control Study in Germany 2018–2020

In Germany, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infections mainly occur in southern regions. Despite recent increases in incidence, TBE vaccination coverage remains low, necessitating additional preventive strategies against TBE. Our case-control study in Southern Germany from 2018 to 2020 mapped knowledge/application of tick-protective strategies and identified TBE risk factors. We calculated odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We interviewed 581 cases and 975 matched controls. Most participants recalled lifetime tick bites, mainly while walking, gardening, or hiking. However, only 45% of cases noticed ticks during exposure time; another 12% reported unpasteurized milk intake. While tick-protection knowledge was satisfactory, application lagged behind. Risk factors included dog ownership (OR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.85–3.24), walks ≥ 4×/week (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.42–3.12), gardening ≥ 4×/week (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.11–3.02), and garden proximity < 250 m of forests (OR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.82–3.56). Applying ≥2 tick-protective strategies (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40–0.68) and keeping lawns mowed (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.43–0.91) were inversely associated with TBE. In 2020 (likely pandemic-related), cases reported significantly more walks than previously, potentially explaining the record high case numbers. Our findings provide guidance on targets for TBE prevention. Persons with gardens near forests, frequent outdoor activities, or dogs could particularly benefit from targeted information, including on vaccination and preventing tick bites.Peer Reviewe

Pre-existing health conditions and severe COVID-19 outcomes: an umbrella review approach and meta-analysis of global evidence

Background This study applies an umbrella review approach to summarise the global evidence on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with pre-existing health conditions. Methods Systematic reviews (SRs) were identified in PubMed, Embase/Medline and seven pre-print servers until December 11, 2020. Due to the absence of age-adjusted risk effects stratified by geographical regions, a re-analysis of the evidence was conducted. Primary studies were extracted from SRs and evaluated for inclusion in the re-analysis. Studies were included if they reported risk estimates (odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR), relative risk (RR)) for hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission, intubation or death. Estimated associations were extracted from the primary studies for reported pre-existing conditions. Meta-analyses were performed stratified for each outcome by regions of the World Health Organization. The evidence certainty was assessed using GRADE. Registration number CRD42020215846. Results In total, 160 primary studies from 120 SRs contributed 464 estimates for 42 pre-existing conditions. Most studies were conducted in North America, European, and Western Pacific regions. Evidence from Africa, South/Latin America, and the Eastern Mediterranean region was scarce. No evidence was available from the South-East Asia region. Diabetes (HR range 1.2–2.0 (CI range 1.1–2.8)), obesity (OR range 1.5–1.75 (CI range 1.1–2.3)), heart failure (HR range 1.3–3.3 (CI range 0.9–8.2)), COPD (HR range 1.12–2.2 (CI range 1.1–3.2)) and dementia (HR range 1.4–7.7 (CI range 1.2–39.6)) were associated with fatal COVID-19 in different regions, although the estimates varied. Evidence from Europe and North America showed that liver cirrhosis (OR range 3.2–5.9 (CI range 0.9–27.7)) and active cancer (OR range 1.6–4.7 (CI range 0.5–14.9)) were also associated with increased risk of death. Association between HIV and undesirable COVID-19 outcomes showed regional heterogeneity, with an increased risk of death in Africa (HR 1.7 (CI 1.3–2.2)). GRADE certainty was moderate to high for most associations. Conclusion Risk of undesirable COVID-19 health outcomes is consistently increased in certain patient subgroups across geographical regions, showing high variability in others. The results can be used to inform COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation or other intervention strategies.Peer Reviewe