Some Models and Their Extensions for Longitudinal Analyses

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Osallistumissyyt työvoimakoulutuksessa – kokemuksia naisvaltaisille aloille suunnatusta koulutushankkeesta

Tutkimuksen kohteena olivat naisvaltaisille, sosiaali- ja terveys- sekä palvelualoille suunnatun yhden työvoimapoliittisen koulutushankkeen osallistujat. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin työvoimakoulutukseen osallistumista siihen hakeutuneiden opiskelijoiden näkökulmasta. Tavoitteena oli selvittää, mitkä syyt vaikuttavat päätökseen hakeutua työvoimakoulutukseen ja millaisia osallistumissyiden suuntauksia aineiston perusteella voidaan muodostaa. Koulutuksen kohteena olivat vanhustyö, puhdistuspalveluala ja liikeala. Aineiston perusteella muodostettiin kolme osallistumissyiden suuntausta, jotka olivat työmarkkina-aseman edistämiseen liittyvät syyt, sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset syyt sekä ammatin saamiseen liittyvät syyt. Työvoimakoulutukseen osallistumisessa korostuivat työllistymiseen ja ammattitaidon kohentamiseen liittyvät syyt kaikilla aloilla ja kaikissa ikäryhmissä. Sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset syyt, kuten työttömyyden katkeaminen nousivat tärkeäksi erityisesti vanhemmissa ikäryhmissä. Ammatin saamiseen liittyvät syyt korostuivat puhdistuspalvelualalla, jossa osallistujien pohjakoulutus oli vähäisin

Using sequence analysis to visualize and validate model transitions

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SMIXS: Novel efficient algorithm for non-parametric mixture regression-based clustering

We investigate a novel non-parametric regression-based clustering algorithm for longitudinal data analysis. Combining natural cubic splines with Gaussian mixture models (GMM), the algorithm can produce smooth cluster means that describe the underlying data well. However, there are some shortcomings in the algorithm: high computational complexity in the parameter estimation procedure and a numerically unstable variance estimator. Therefore, to further increase the usability of the method, we incorporated approaches to reduce its computational complexity, we developed a new, more stable variance estimator, and we developed a new smoothing parameter estimation procedure. We show that the developed algorithm, SMIXS, performs better than GMM on a synthetic dataset in terms of clustering and regression performance. We demonstrate the impact of the computational speed-ups, which we formally prove in the new framework. Finally, we perform a case study by using SMIXS to cluster vertical atmospheric measurements to determine different weather regimes

Earnings profiles of Finnish wage earners in 2000–2010

The employee’s salary normally increases with age and experience, but for how long? The purpose of this discussion paper is to investigate the age-wage profile with the help of register data. A trajectory analysis has been applied to the categorization of the register data, based on which six different groups in wage development have been identified. Taking various background factors into account, the wage profiles of the groups are modeled using a mixed statistical model. According to the results, the wage development of Finnish employees in relation to age takes the form of an undulating, up-and-down profile, the shape and peaks of which vary according to the wage group

Можливості розвитку інноваційної діяльності малого та середнього бізнесу в Україні та за кордоном

Objectives The unemployed are assumed to adopt unhealthy behaviours, including harmful use of alcohol. This study sought to elucidate the relations between unemployment before age 21years and consumption of alcohol from 21 to 42years. The design was based on the conception of youth as a sensitive period for obtaining drinking scars' that are visible up to middle age. Setting The Northern Swedish Cohort Study has followed up a population sample from 1981 to 2007 with five surveys. Participants All pupils (n=1083) attending the last year of compulsory school in Lulea participated in the baseline survey in classrooms, and 1010 of them (522 men and 488 women) participated in the last follow-up survey that was conducted at classmate reunions or by post or by phone. Outcome measure The trajectory of alcohol consumption from 21 to 43years, obtained with latent class growth analyses, was scaled. Results Men were assigned to five and women to three consumption trajectories. The trajectory membership was regressed on accumulation of unemployment from 16 to 21years, with multinomial logistic regression analyses. The trajectory of moderate consumption was preceded by lowest exposure to unemployment in men and in women. With reference to this, the relative risk ratios for high-level trajectory groups were 3.49 (1.25 to 9.79) in men and 1.41 (0.74 to 2.72) in women, but also the trajectories of low-level consumption were more probable (relative risk ratio 3.18 (1.12 to 9.02) in men and 2.41 (1.24 to 4.67) in women). Conclusions High-level alcohol consumption throughout adulthood is, particularly among men, partly due to scars' from youth unemployment, particularly in men, but there are also groups of men and women where unemployment in the teens predicts a trajectory of low consumption

Self-reported health problems in a health risk appraisal predict permanent work disability : a prospective cohort study of 22,023 employees from different sectors in Finland with up to 6-year follow-up

Purpose Work disability (WD) as a medico-legal concept refers to disability benefits (DB) that are granted due to diseases that permanently reduce work ability. We studied whether an occupational healthcare instrument for the prediction of sickness absence (SA) risk-a health risk appraisal (HRA)-also predicts permanent WD. Methods HRA results were combined with registry data on DB of 22,023 employees from different industry sectors. We analysed how the HRA risk categories predict DB and considered occupational group, gender, age, and prior SA as confounding variables. Cumulative incidence function illustrates the difference between the HRA risk categories, and the Fine-Gray model estimates the predictors of WD during 6-year follow-up. Results The most common primary reasons for permanent WD were musculoskeletal (39%) and mental disorders (21%). Self-reported health problems in the HRA, labelled as "WD risk factors", predicted DB when controlling for age and prior SA. Hazard ratios were 10.9 or over with the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval 3.3 or over among those with two simultaneous WD risk factors. 14% of the females and 17% of the males with three or more simultaneous WD risk factors had received a DB, whereas the respective figures among those without findings were 1.9% and 0.3%. Conclusions Self-reported health problems in the HRA, especially multiple simultaneous WD risk factors, predict permanent WD among both genders across occupational groups. Screening WD risk with a self-administered questionnaire is a potential means for identifying high-risk employees for targeting occupational healthcare actions.Peer reviewe