Bayesian Modeling of Incompatible Spatial Data: A Case Study Involving Post-Adrian Storm Forest Damage Assessment

Incompatible spatial data modeling is a pervasive challenge in remote sensing data analysis that involves field data. Typical approaches to addressing this challenge aggregate information to a coarser common scale, i.e., compatible resolutions. Such pre-processing aggregation to a common resolution simplifies analysis, but potentially causes information loss and hence compromised inference and predictive performance. To incorporate finer information to enhance prediction performance, we develop a new Bayesian method aimed at improving predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification. The main contribution of this work is an efficient algorithm that enables full Bayesian inference using finer resolution data while optimizing computational and storage costs. The algorithm is developed and applied to a forest damage assessment for the 2018 Adrian storm in Carinthia, Austria, which uses field data and high-resolution LiDAR measurements. Simulation studies demonstrate that this approach substantially improves prediction accuracy and stability, providing more reliable inference to support forest management decisions.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure

Stem-Level Bucking Pattern Optimization in Chainsaw Bucking Based on Terrestrial Laser Scanning Data

Cross-cutting of a tree into a set of assortments (»bucking pattern«) presents a large potential for optimizing the volume and value recovery; therefore, bucking pattern optimization has been studied extensively in the past. However, it has not seen widespread adoption in chainsaw bucking, where time consuming and costly manual measurement of input parameters is required for taper curve estimation. The present study investigated an alternative approach, where taper curves are fit based on terrestrial laser scanning data (TLS), and how deviations from observed taper curves (REF) affect the result of bucking pattern optimization. In addition, performance of TLS was compared to a traditional, segmental taper curve estimation approach (APP) and an experienced chainsaw operator’s solution (CHA). A mature Norway Spruce stand was surveyed by stationary terrestrial laser scanning. In TLS, taper curves were fit by a mixed-effects B-spline regression approach to stem diameters extracted from 3D point cloud data. A network analysis technique algorithm was used for bucking pattern optimization during harvesting. Stem diameter profiles and the chainsaw operator’s bucking pattern were obtained by manual measurement. The former was used for post-operation fit of REF taper curves by the same approach as in TLS. APP taper curves were fit based on part of the data. For 35 trees, TLS and APP taper curves were compared to REF on tree, trunk and crown section level. REF and APP bucking patterns were optimized with the same algorithm as in TLS. For 30 trees, TLS, APP and CHA bucking patterns were compared to REF on operation and tree level. Taper curves were estimated with high accuracy and precision (underestimated by 0.2 cm on average (SD=1.5 cm); RMSE=1.5 cm) in TLS and the fit outperformed APP. Volume and value recovery were marginally higher in TLS (0.6%; 0.9%) than in REF on operation level, while substantial differences were observed for APP (–6.1%; –4.1%). Except for cumulated nominal length, no significant differences were observed between TLS and REF on tree level, while APP result was inferior throughout. Volume and value recovery in CHA was significantly higher (2.1%; 2.4%), but mainly due to a small disadvantage of the optimization algorithm. The investigated approach based on terrestrial laser scanning data proved to provide highly accurate and precise estimations of the taper curves. Therefore, it can be considered a further step towards increased accuracy, precision and efficiency of bucking pattern optimization in chainsaw bucking

Measurement of Individual Tree Parameters with Carriage-Based Laser Scanning in Cable Yarding Operations

Introduction: Cable yarding is a technology that enables efficient and sustainable use of timber resources in mountainous areas. Carriages as an integral component of cable yarding systems have undergone significant development in recent decades. In addition to mechanical and functional developments, carriages are increasingly used as carrier platforms for various sensors. The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy of individual standing tree and stand variable estimates obtained by a mobile laser scanning system mounted on a cable yarder carriage. Methods: Eight cable corridors were scanned across two forest stands. Four different scan variants were conducted, differing in the movement speed of the carriage and the direction of movement during scanning. An algorithm for tree detection, diameter and height estimation was applied to the 3D datasets and evaluated against manual tree measurements. Results: The analysis of the 3D scans showed that the individual tree parameters strongly depend on the scan variant and the distance of each individual tree to the skyline. This was due to changing 3D point densities and occlusion effects. It turned out that scan variant 1, in which the scan was performed during slow carriage movement downwards and back upwards again, was advantageous. At a distance of 10 m, which is half of the recommended corridor spacing of 20 m for whole tree cable yarding, 95.44% of the trees in stand 1 and 92.16% of the trees in stand 2 could be detected automatically. The corresponding root mean sqare errors of the diameter at breast height estimatimations were 1.59 cm and 2.23 cm, respectively. The root mean square errors of the height measurements were 2.94 m and 4.63 m. Conclusions: The results of this study can help to further advance the digitization of cable yarding and timber flow from the standing tree to the sawmill. However, this requires further development steps in cable yarder, carriage, and laserscanner technology. Furthermore, there is also a need for more efficient software routines to take the next steps towards precision forestry

Evidence for significant influence of host immunity on changes in differential blood count during malaria

Background: Malaria has been shown to change blood counts. Recently, a few studies have investigated the alteration of the peripheral blood monocyte-to-lymphocyte count ratio (MLCR) and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio (NLCR) during infection with Plasmodium falciparum. Based on these findings this study investigates the predictive values of blood count alterations during malaria across different sub-populations. Methods: Cases and controls admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine from January 2000 through December 2010 were included in this comparative analysis. Blood count values and other variables at admission controlled for age, gender and immune status were statistically investigated. Results: The study population comprised 210 malaria patients, infected with P. falciparum (68%), Plasmodium vivax (21%), Plasmodium ovale (7%) and Plasmodium malariae (4%), and 210 controls. A positive correlation of parasite density with NLCR and neutrophil counts, and a negative correlation of parasite density with thrombocyte, leucocyte and lymphocyte counts were found. An interaction with semi-immunity was observed; ratios were significantly different in semi-immune compared to non-immune patients (P <0.001). The MLCR discriminated best between malaria cases and controls (AUC = 0.691; AUC = 0.741 in non-immune travellers), whereas the NLCR better predicted severe malaria, especially in semi-immune patients (AUC = 0.788). Conclusion: Malaria causes typical but non-specific alterations of the differential blood count. The predictive value of the ratios was fair but limited. However, these changes were less pronounced in patients with semi-immunity. The ratios might constitute easily applicable surrogate biomarkers for immunity

Timing and duration of drought modulate tree growth response in pure and mixed stands of Scots pine and Norway spruce

Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of droughts around the globe, leading to tree mortality that reduces production and provision of other ecosystem services. Recent studies show that growth of mixed stands may be more resilient to drought than pure stands. The two most economically important and widely distributed tree species in Europe are Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), but little is known about their susceptibility to drought when coexist. This paper analyses the resilience (resistance, recovery rate and recovery time) at individual-tree level using a network of tree-ring collections from 22 sites along a climatic gradient from central Europe to Scandinavia. We aimed to identify differences in growth following drought between the two species and between mixed and pure stands, and how environmental variables (climate, topography and site location) and tree characteristics influence them. We found that both the timing and duration of drought drive the different responses between species and compositions. Norway spruce showed higher vulnerability to summer drought, with both lower resistance and a longer recovery time than Scots pine. Mixtures provided higher drought resistance for both species compared to pure stands, but the benefit decreases with the duration of the drought. Especially climate sensitive and old trees in climatically marginal sites were more affected by drought stress. Synthesis. Promoting Scots pine and mixed forests is a promising strategy for adapting European forests to climate change. However, if future droughts become longer, the advantage of mixed stands could disappear which would be especially negative for Norway spruce

Species mixing reduces drought susceptibility of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) – Site water supply and fertility modify the mixing effect

Tree species mixing has been widely promoted as a promising silvicultural tool for reducing drought stress. However, so far only a limited number of species combinations have been studied in detail, revealing inconsistent results. In this study, we analysed the effect of mixing Scots pine and oak (pedunculate oak and sessile oak) trees on their drought response along a comprehensive ecological gradient across Europe. The objective was to improve our knowledge of general drought response patterns of two fundamental European tree species in mixed versus monospecific stands. We focused on three null hypotheses: () tree drought response does not differ between Scots pine and oak, () tree drought response of Scots pine and oak is not affected by stand composition (mixture versus monoculture) and () tree drought response of Scots pine and oak in mixtures and monocultures is not modified by tree size or site conditions. To test the hypotheses, we analysed increment cores of Scots pine and oak, sampled in mixed and monospecific stands, covering a wide range of site conditions. We investigated resistance (the ability to maintain growth levels during drought), recovery (the ability to restore a level of growth after drought) and resilience (the capacity to recover to pre-drought growth levels), involving site-specific drought events that occurred between 1976 and 2015. In monocultures, oak showed a higher resistance and resilience than Scots pine, while recovery was lower. Scots pine in mixed stands exhibited a higher resistance, but also a lower recovery compared with Scots pine in monocultures. Mixing increased the resistance and resilience of oak. Ecological factors such as tree size, site water supply and site fertility were found to have significant effects on the drought response. In the case of Scots pine, resistance was increased by tree size, while recovery was lowered. Resistance of oak increased with site water supply. The observed mixing effect on the tree drought response of Scots pine and oak was in some cases modified by the site conditions studied. Positive mixing effects in terms of resistance and resilience of oak increased with site water supply, while the opposite was found regarding recovery. In contrast, site fertility lessened the positive mixing effect on the resistance of Scots pine. We hypothesise that the observed positive mixing effects under drought mainly result from water- and/or light-related species interactions that improve resource availability and uptake according to temporal and spatial variations in environmental conditions.This work was supported by the European Union as part of the ERA-Net SUMFOREST project REFORM – Mixed species forest management. Lowering risk, increasing resilience (2816ERA02S, PCIN2017-026) and the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 778322. All contributors thank their national funding institutions for supporting the establishment, mensuration and analysis of the studied triplets. The first author wants to thank the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) for financial support through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE) (grant number 2816ERA02S), as well as the Bayerische Staatsforsten (BaySF) and Landesbetrieb Forst Brandenburg for providing suitable research sites. Research on the Lithuanian triplets (LT 1, LT 2) was made possible by the national funding institution Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) (agreement number S-SUMFOREST-17-1). The French site FR 1 belongs to the OPTMix experimental site (https://optmix.irstea.fr), which is supported annually by Ecofor, Allenvi, and the French national research infrastructure ANAEE-F. A special thank is due to Peter Biber for supporting the statistical analysis

Mixing effects on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) productivity along a climatic gradient across Europe

Mixed-species stands have been found to be more productive than would be expected from the performance of their component species in monocultures due to facilitation and complementarity between species, although these interactions depend on the combination of species present. Our study focuses on monospecific and mixed species stands of Scots pine and Norway spruce using 20 triplets established in nine countries along a climatic gradient across Europe. Differences in mean tree and stand characteristics, productivity and stand structure were assessed. Basal area increment in mixed stands was 8% higher than expected while volume increment was only 2% greater. Scots pine trees growing in mixed-species stands showed 11% larger quadratic mean diameter, 7% larger dominant diameter, 17% higher basal area and 25% higher stand volume than trees growing in mono specific stands. Norway spruce showed only a non-significant tendency to lower mean values of diameters, heights, basal area, as well standing volume in mixtures than monocultures. Stand structure indices differed between mixed stands and monocultures of Scots pine showing a greater stratification in mixed-species stands. Furthermore, the studied morphological traits showed little variability for trees growing in monospecific stands, except for diameter at breast height, crown length and crown length ratio. For trees growing in mixed stands, all the morphological traits of the trees were identified as different. Some of these morphological traits were associated with relative productivity. Nevertheless, relative productivity in mixed-species stands was not related to site conditions

Emerging stability of forest productivity by mixing two species buffers temperature destabilizing effect

The increasing disturbances in monocultures around the world are testimony to their instability under global change. Many studies have claimed that temporal stability of productivity increases with species richness, although the ecological fundamentals have mainly been investigated through diversity experiments. To adequately manage forest ecosystems, it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the effect of mixing species on the temporal stability of productivity and the way in which it is influenced by climate conditions across large geographical areas. Here, we used a unique dataset of 261 stands combining pure and two-species mixtures of four relevant tree species over a wide range of climate conditions in Europe to examine the effect of species mixing on the level and temporal stability of productivity. Structural equation modelling was employed to further explore the direct and indirect influence of climate, overyielding, species asynchrony and additive effect (i.e. temporal stability expected from the species growth in monospecific stands) on temporal stability in mixed forests. We showed that by adding only one tree species to monocultures, the level (overyielding: +6%) and stability (temporal stability: +12%) of stand growth increased significantly. We identified the key effect of temperature on destabilizing stand growth, which may be mitigated by mixing species. We further confirmed asynchrony as the main driver of temporal stability in mixed stands, through both the additive effect and species interactions, which modify between-species asynchrony in mixtures in comparison to monocultures. Synthesis and applications. This study highlights the emergent properties associated with mixing two species, which result in resource efficient and temporally stable production systems. We reveal the negative impact of mean temperature on temporal stability of forest productivity and how the stabilizing effect of mixing two species can counterbalance this impact. The overyielding and temporal stability of growth addressed in this paper are essential for ecosystem services closely linked with the level and rhythm of forest growth. Our results underline that mixing two species can be a realistic and effective nature-based climate solution, which could contribute towards meeting EU climate target policies

With increasing site quality asymmetric competition and mortality reduces Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand structuring across Europe

Heterogeneity of structure can increase mechanical stability, stress resistance and resilience, biodiversity and many other functions and services of forest stands. That is why many silvicultural measures aim at enhancing structural diversity. However, the effectiveness and potential of structuring may depend on the site conditions. Here, we revealed how the stand structure is determined by site quality and results from site-dependent partitioning of growth and mortality among the trees. We based our study on 90 mature, even-aged, fully stocked monocultures of Scots pine (Pines sylvestris L.) sampled in 21 countries along a productivity gradient across Europe. A mini-simulation study further analyzed the site-dependency of the interplay between growth and mortality and the resulting stand structure. The overarching hypothesis was that the stand structure changes with site quality and results from the site-dependent asymmetry of competition and mortality.First, we show that Scots pine stands structure across Europe become more homogeneous with increasing site quality. The coefficient of variation and Gini coefficient of stem diameter and tree height continuously decreased, whereas Stand Density Index and stand basal area increased with site index.Second, we reveal a site-dependency of the growth distribution among the trees and the mortality. With increasing site index, the asymmetry of both competition and growth distribution increased and suggested, at first glance, an increase in stand heterogeneity. However, with increasing site index, mortality eliminates mainly small instead of all-sized trees, cancels the size variation and reduces the structural heterogeneity.Third, we modelled the site-dependent interplay between growth partitioning and mortality. By scenario runs for different site conditions, we can show how the site-dependent structure at the stand level emerges from the asymmetric competition and mortality at the tree level and how the interplay changes with increasing site quality across Europe.Our most interesting finding was that the growth partitioning became more asymmetric and structuring with increasing site quality, but that the mortality eliminated predominantly small trees, reduced their size variation and thus reversed the impact of site quality on the structure. Finally, the reverse effects of mode of growth partitioning and mortality on the stand structure resulted in the highest size variation on poor sites and decreased structural heterogeneity with increasing site quality. Since our results indicate where heterogeneous structures need silviculture interventions and where they emerge naturally, we conclude that these findings may improve system understanding and modelling and guide forest management aiming at structurally rich forests