Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA

Dearth and the English revolution : the harvest crisis of 1647-50

This article reconstructs the nature and scale of dearth in the late 1640s, emphasizing the coincidence of economic distress with constitutional crisis. It reconsiders the parish register evidence for subsistence crisis; examines the responses of central and local government; analyses the role of popular agency, especially though petitioning campaigns, in prompting reluctant magistrates to regulate the grain markets along lines stipulated by the late Elizabethan and early Stuart dearth orders, which had not been proclaimed since 1630; and accordingly suggests that the late 1640s represents a missing link in the historiography of responses to harvest failure

Does socioeconomic status matter? The fertility transition in a northern Italian village (marriage cohorts 1900‒1940)

Background: The paper explores the mechanisms of the European fertility transition in northern Italy by social group. Objective: Our objective is to understand when and in which sectors of a rural society the reduction of family size began. We focus on Emilia-Romagna, a region that in the 1990s had the lowest fertility level in Italy. The core purpose of this paper is the analysis of socioeconomic status (SES) fertility differentials, especially between rural sharecroppers and landless rural workers, as well as other non-agricultural groups. Methods: Our analysis focuses on the reproductive histories of marriage cohorts in the years 1900‒1940. We perform a micro-level statistical analysis of legitimate births of parity 1+. Results: In this period fertility decline has just begun, and shows a strong decline in the post-WWI marriage cohorts. Although nonagricultural groups lead the downward trend in family size, the role of socioeconomic status means that the path of sharecropper households is atypical. Conclusions: The fertility transition proceeds by means of spacing and stopping, testifying to a new attitude towards birth control, which agricultural and nonagricultural social groups adopted in different ways. Usually, the decline in fertility progresses from nonagricultural to rural classes. In the rural world the path is inverted, going from the lower to the upper groups. Contribution: The paper contributes to the debate on the links between socioeconomic status and fertility transition in Italy. It shows that the link between household economy and control of fertility is specific to SES groups, which can follow atypical paths, compared to the known reference model. The use of microdemographic data provides evidence for the hypothesis that the fertility transition can be shaped by the specific social and economic characteristics of population subgroups

The causes of stalling fertility transitions

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in mid-transition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and wanted fertility. Findings suggest no major deterioration in contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted fertility are relatively high and improvements in access to family planning methods would therefore be desirable. No significant link was found between the presence of a stall and trends in socioeconomic development, but at the onset of the stall the level of fertility was low relative to the level of development in all but one of the stalling countries

The Reproductive Revolution

Este texto fue publicado en 2009 por The Sociological Review. Rogamos que, a efectos de divulgación, docencia y cita bibliográfica se acuda a la publicación impresa (u online de la propia revista) y la cita sea esta: MacInnes, J., Pérez Díaz, J. (2009), "The reproductive revolution" The Sociological Review 57 (2): 262-284. Su versión html puede encontrarse en esta dirección:http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/122368561/HTMLSTART Quienes estén interesados en ampliar la información sobre nuestra Teoría de la Revolución Reproductiva pueden visitar la página web siguiente: http://www.ieg.csic.es/jperez/pags/RRweb/RRweb.htm También encontrarán en este mismo repositorio otra publicación con unaexposición en castellano de las mismas ideas y publicada en la REIS bajo el título “La tercera revolución de la modernidad: la reproductiva”.We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security.As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, ‘low’ fertility and ‘population ageing’.Peer reviewe

Valorization of Lignin under Mild Conditions: Biorefining Flavonoids and Lignin Nanoparticles

Lignin is the largest store of renewable aromatics. Due to its refractory nature, however, its chemical potential is not fully realized. Here, we propose a biorefinery where the treatment of wastewater by a microbial electrolysis cell (MEC) produces “clean” water and a caustic catholyte that can depolymerize lignin under mild conditions into two high-value product streams. We determine the MEC operating conditions to produce a depolymerization solvent and quantify solution and colloidal phase products using an array of analytical techniques. In contrast to previous reports of limited high-value product yields, we obtain discrete aromatics (monomers and flavonoids) at 17% of initial lignin mass with bulk chemical analyses (11% for identified compounds using LC-MSn). In part, our higher product yield is due to selective repolymerization to form flavonoids. We simultaneously produce lignin nanoparticles and close mass balance. Both flavonoids and lignin nanoparticles have potential applications in the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical, personal care, and agricultural industries.Fil: Obrzut, Natalia. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Carnelli, Patricio Francisco Florencio. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Investigación e Ingeniería Ambiental. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigación e Ingeniería Ambiental; Argentina. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Brauer, Sophie. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Notestein, Justin M.. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Wells, George F.. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Gray, Kimberly A.. Northwestern University; Estados Unido