[Letter] Present and future biodiversity risks from fossil fuel exploitation

Currently, human society is predominantly powered by fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas—yet also ultimately depends on goods and services provided by biodiversity. Fossil fuel extraction impacts biodiversity indirectly through climate change and by increasing accessibility, and directly through habitat loss and pollution. In contrast to the indirect effects, quantification of the direct impacts has been relatively neglected. To address this, we analyse the potential threat to > 37,000 species and > 200,000 protected areas globally from the locations of present and future fossil fuel extraction in marine and terrestrial environments. Sites that are currently exploited have higher species richness and endemism than unexploited sites, whereas known future hydrocarbon activities will predominantly move into less biodiverse locations. We identify 181 ‘high‐risk’ locations where oil or gas extraction suitability coincides with biodiversity importance, making conflicts between extraction and conservation probable. In total, protected areas are located on US$3‐15 trillion of unexploited hydrocarbon reserves, posing challenges and potentially opportunities for protected area management and sustainable financing

A perfect moment during imperfect times: Arctic energy research in a low-carbon era

In the last decade, Arctic energy research has been dominated by a focus on oil and gas exploration, development, and extraction. This is introductory article to an Energy Research & Social Science special issue, entitled "Arctic Energy: Views from the Social Sciences," challenges this approach and offers a broader and more inclusive perspective on Arctic energy research. In reflecting this perspective, some of the articles investigate social, economic, political, and environmental aspects of oil and gas development in the region while offering critiques of such development's processes and initiatives, both of which are usually seen in a positive light. Other articles target non-fossil sources and types of energy, thereby providing a view of the Arctic as a living laboratory for energy services. The special issue's broad and inclusive perspective is also represented by the diverse disciplinary, professional, and ethnic backgrounds of the contributing authors, as well as the range of conceptual and methodological approaches

The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application

Scenarios of future energy systems attribute an important role to Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) in achieving emission reductions. Using captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) can improve the economics of the technology. This paper examines the potential for CO2-EOR in the North Sea region. UK oil fields are found to account for 47% of the estimated additional recovery potential of 3739 Mbbl (1234 MtCO2 of storage potential). Danish and Norwegian fields add 28% and 25%, respectively. Based on a comprehensive dataset, the paper develops a unique techno-economic market equilibrium model of CO2 supply from emission sources and CO2 demand from CO2-EOR to assess implications for a future CCTS infrastructure. A detailed representation of decreasing demand for fresh CO2 for CO2-EOR operation is accomplished via an exponential storage cost function. In all scenarios of varying CO2 and crude oil price paths the assumed CO2-EOR potential is fully exploited. CO2-EOR does add value to CCTS operations but the potential is very limited and does not automatically induce long term CCTS activity. If CO2 prices stay low, little further use of CCTS can be expected after 2035

Pro-Cyclical Petroleum Investments and Cost Overruns in Norway

Development projects in the oil industry often have cost overruns. Through analysis of data from Norwegian development projects in the petroleum industry, this paper investigates the common effect of business cycle developments on cost overruns. Lack of capacity and expertise in a tight supplier market yield cost inflation and difficulties in managing projects. Unlike previous analyses of cost overruns, we analyse projects over a long time period to capture the cyclical effects. We document a statistically significant positive relationship between oil price developments and cost overruns, with shocks or surprises to the oil price during the project implementation having a larger impact on cost overruns than the oil price level itself. Cost overrun ultimately leads to reduced competitiveness for the industry, and we discuss consequences and policy implications for business and society of these cost overruns