Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

1.Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. 2.Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land-use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus; a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall), and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. 3.Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs, and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. 4.Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. 5.Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations

Stochastic model of randomly end-linked polymer network micro-regions

Polymerization and formation of crosslinked polymer networks are important processes in manufacturing, materials fabrication, and in the case of hydrated polymer networks, synthesis of biomedical materials, drug delivery, and tissue engineering. While considerable research has been devoted to the modeling of polymer networks to determine averaged, mean-field, global properties, there are fewer studies that specifically examine the variance of the composition across "micro-regions" (composed of a large, but finite, number of polymer network strands) within the larger polymer network.Here, we mathematically model the stochastic formation of polymer networks comprised of linear homobifunctional network strands that undergo an end-linking gelation process. We introduce a master equation that describes the evolution of the probabilities of possible network micro-region configurations as a function of time and extent of reaction. We specifically focus on the dynamics of network formation and the statistical variability of the gel micro-regions, particularly at intermediate extents of reaction. We also consider possible annealing effects and study how cooperative binding between the two end-groups on a single network-strand affects network formation. Our results allow for a more detailed and thorough understanding of polymer network dynamics and variability of network properties.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figure

Environmental and Parental Influences on Offspring Health and Growth in Great Tits (Parus major)

PMCID: PMC3728352This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

A General Modeling Framework for Describing Spatially Structured Population Dynamics

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network‐based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life‐history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network‐based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real‐world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network‐based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Genetic, environmental and stochastic factors in monozygotic twin discordance with a focus on epigenetic differences

PMCID: PMC3566971This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

UK Upland Waters Monitoring Network data interpretation 1988-2019

This report is the latest in a series of occasional interpretive reports to Defra, extending back to 1993, that have documented trends in the chemistry and biota of UK Upland Waters Monitoring (UWMN) sites

MFA12 (MFA 2012)

Catalogue of a culminating student exhibition held at the Mildred Lane Kemper Art Museum May 4-Aug. 6, 2012. Contents include Introduction / Buzz Spector -- Think, make, show and tell / Patricia Olynyk -- Ifeoma Ugonnwa Anyaeji -- J.E. Baker / Elissa Yukiko Weichbrodt -- Natalie Baldeon / Emily Hanson -- As in a turning gear : E. Thurston Belmer / Rickey Laurentiis -- Lauren Cardenas / Nicholas Tamarkin -- Megan Sue Collins / Catherine Chiodo -- Adrian Cox -- Maya Durham / Dolly Laninga -- Erin Falker / Melissa Olson -- St. Louis dreamscape : Jieun Kim / Caitlin Tyler -- Howard Krohn -- Scape : Robert Long / Robert Whitehead -- Marie Bannerot McInerney / Elissa Yukiko Weichbrodt -- Ghost : Nikki McMahan / Rickey Laurentiis -- Michael T. Meier -- Katie Millitzer -- Reid G. Norris / Ross Rader -- Kathleen Perniciaro / Melissa Olson -- Emily Squires / Nicholas Tamarkin -- Jamie Presson Wells -- Whitney Lorene Wood / Reid G. Norris -- Andrew Woodard -- Kelly K. Wright -- Contributors -- About the Sam Fox School.https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/books/1003/thumbnail.jp