Topography-driven isolation, speciation and a global increase of endemism with elevation

Aim: Higher-elevation areas on islands and continental mountains tend to be separated by longer distances, predicting higher endemism at higher elevations; our study is the first to test the generality of the predicted pattern. We also compare it empirically with contrasting expectations from hypotheses invoking higher speciation with area, temperature and species richness. Location: Thirty-two insular and 18 continental elevational gradients from around the world. Methods: We compiled entire floras with elevation-specific occurrence information, and calculated the proportion of native species that are endemic (‘percent endemism’) in 100-m bands, for each of the 50 elevational gradients. Using generalized linear models, we tested the relationships between percent endemism and elevation, isolation, temperature, area and species richness. Results: Percent endemism consistently increased monotonically with elevation, globally. This was independent of richness–elevation relationships, which had varying shapes but decreased with elevation at high elevations. The endemism–elevation relationships were consistent with isolation-related predictions, but inconsistent with hypotheses related to area, richness and temperature. Main conclusions: Higher per-species speciation rates caused by increasing isolation with elevation are the most plausible and parsimonious explanation for the globally consistent pattern of higher endemism at higher elevations that we identify. We suggest that topography-driven isolation increases speciation rates in mountainous areas, across all elevations and increasingly towards the equator. If so, it represents a mechanism that may contribute to generating latitudinal diversity gradients in a way that is consistent with both present-day and palaeontological evidence

The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation

Ecological palaeoecology in the neotropical Gran Sabana region: Long-term records of vegetation dynamics as a basis for ecological hypothesis testing

Long-term palaeoecological records are needed to test ecological hypotheses involving time, as short-term observations are of insufficient duration to capture natural variability. In this paper, we review the published palaeoecological evidence for the neotropical Gran Sabana (GS) region, to record the vegetation dynamics and evaluate the potential effects of natural climatic and anthropogenic (notably fire) drivers of change. The time period considered (last 13,000 years) covers major global climate changes and the arrival of humans in the region. The specific points addressed are climate–vegetation equilibrium, reversibility of vegetation changes, the origin of extant biodiversity and endemism patterns and biodiversity conservation in the face of global warming. Vegetation dynamics is reconstructed by pollen analysis and fire incidence is deduced from microscopic charcoal records. Palaeoclimatic inferences are derived from global and regional records using independent physico-chemical evidence to avoid circular reasoning. After analyzing all the long-term records available from both GS uplands and highlands, we conclude that: (1) Upland vegetation (mostly treeless savannas and savanna–forest mosaics, with occasional Mauritia palm swamps) is not in equilibrium with the dominant climates, but largely conditioned by burning practices; (2) a hypothetical natural or “original” vegetation type for these uplands has not been possible to identify due to continuous changes in both climate and human activities during the last 13,000 years; (3) at the time scale studied (millennial), the shift from forest to savanna is abrupt and irreversible due to the existence of tipping points, no matter the cause (natural or anthropogenic); (4) on the contrary, the shift from savanna to palm swamps is reversible at centennial time scales; (5) some of the reconstructed past vegetation types have no modern analogues owing to the individual species response to environmental shifts, leading to variations in community composition; (6) extant biodiversity and endemism patterns are not the result of a long history of topographical isolation, as previously proposed but, rather, the consequence of the action of climatic and palaeogeographic variations; (7) the projected global warming will likely exacerbate the expansion of upland savannas by favouring positive fire-climate feedbacks; (8) in the highlands, extinction by habitat loss will likely affect biodiversity but to a less extent that prognosticated by models based only on present-day climatic features; (9) future highland communities will likely be different to present ones due to the prevalence of individual species responses to global warming; and (10) conservation strategies at individual species level, rather than at community level, are enriched by long-term palaeoecological studies analyzed here. None of these conclusions would have been possible to derive from short-term neoecological observations

The role of palaeoecological records in assessing ecosystem services

Biological conservation and environmental management are increasingly focussing on the preservation and restoration of ecosystem services (i.e. the benefits that humans receive from the natural functioning of healthy ecosystems). Over the past decade there has been a rapid increase in the number of palaeoecological studies that have contributed to conservation of biodiversity and management of ecosystem processes; however, there are relatively few instances in which attempts have been made to estimate the continuity of ecosystem goods and services over time. How resistant is an ecosystem service to environmental perturbations? And, if damaged, how long it does it take an ecosystem service to recover? Both questions are highly relevant to conservation and management of landscapes that are important for ecosystem service provision and require an in-depth understanding of the way ecosystems function in space and time. An understanding of time is particularly relevant for those ecosystem services – be they supporting, provisioning, regulating or cultural services that involve processes that vary over a decadal (or longer) timeframe. Most trees, for example, have generation times >50 years. Understanding the response of forested ecosystems to environmental perturbations and therefore the continuity of the ecosystem services they provide for human well-being – be it for example, carbon draw-down (regulating service) or timber (provisioning service) – requires datasets that reflect the typical replacement rates in these systems and the lifecycle of processes that alter their trajectories of change. Therefore, data are required that span decadal to millennial time-scales. Very rarely, however, is this information available from neo-ecological datasets and in many ecosystem service assessments, this lack of a temporal record is acknowledged as a significant information gap.This review aims to address this knowledge gap by examining the type and nature of palaeoecological datasets that might be critical to assessing the persistence of ecosystem services across a variety of time scales. Specifically we examine the types of palaeoecological records that can inform on the dynamics of ecosystem processes and services over time – and their response to complex environmental changes. We focus on three key areas: a) exploring the suitability of palaeoecological records for examining variability in space and time of ecosystem processes; b) using palaeoecological data to determine the resilience and persistence of ecosystem services and goods over time in response to drivers of change; and c) how best to translate raw palaeoecological data into the relevant currencies required for ecosystem service assessments

Assessing the resilience of the Western Ghats agroforestry landscapes towards anthropogenic fires and monsoonal variability: Implications for sustaining biodiversity in one of its prime hotspots

International audienc

EARNEST: Examining the agroforestry landscape resilience in India to inform socioecological sustainability in the tropics

International audienc

Dataset supporting the University of Southampton Doctoral Thesis "Palaeoecological responses to environmental changes on South Pacific islands".

This dataset is supporting the University of Southampton Doctoral Thesis &quot;Palaeoecological responses to environmental changes on South Pacific islands&quot;. The files are in CSV format and the R code should be accessed using RStudio software and contain: Feacal_biomarker_data.xlsx Biotic_homogenisation_main.zip Vanuatu_main.zip Tonga_main.zip This work was funded by the NERC PhD stipend NE/L002531/1 </span

Phytolith analysis reveals the intensity of past land use change in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot

This paper presents a study of phytoliths (opal silica bodies from plants) from sediment sequences obtained from two tropical forest patches in the Western Ghats of India: a sacred grove (sequence covers last 550 cal BP) and a forest patch in a plantation (sequence covers last 7500 cal BP). The sites are located at mid-elevation (c. 650–1400 m above sea level) in a mosaic landscape showing anthropogenic open habitats and plantations as well as some evergreen forests. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the landscape composition of grassland and forest over time in the region, grassland being invariably shaped by anthropogenic activities, particularly fire for cultivation. We identified and classified phytoliths into 34 morphotypes from five taxonomic groups: Poaceae (grasses), Cyperaceae (sedges), Arecaceae (palms), Pteridopsida (ferns) and woody dicotyledons (broad-leaved trees and shrubs). We also calculated the humidity–aridity index (Iph). First, our results show that grasses are the most represented phytolith types in both sites, followed by broad-leaved trees and shrubs, palms, sedges, and ferns. Second, the highly variable climatic index Iph over the last 1000 years suggest that changes in phytolith percentage (e.g. broad-leaved trees) might be caused by human agro-pastoral activities, such as clearing through fires and irrigation. Prior to these human activities, the phytolith signal for early Holocene climate is congruent with the existing literature. Finally, this study compares new phytolith results with previous pollen data from the same sites. We find good agreement between these two botanical proxies throughout, thus validating our findings. We provide important evidence regarding the history of environmental change due to anthropogenic activities in the Western Ghats. This has important implications because it provides insights into how tropical forest will respond to increased intensity of human activities