Patterns of item nonresponse behaviour to survey questionnaires are systematic and associated with genetic loci

Peer reviewe

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

A first update on mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

peer reviewe

On the genes, genealogies, and geographies of Quebec

Population genetic models only provide coarse representations of real-world ancestry. We used a pedigree compiled from 4 million parish records and genotype data from 2276 French and 20,451 French Canadian individuals to finely model and trace French Canadian ancestry through space and time. The loss of ancestral French population structure and the appearance of spatial and regional structure highlights a wide range of population expansion models. Geographic features shaped migrations, and we find enrichments for migration, genetic, and genealogical relatedness patterns within river networks across regions of Quebec. Finally, we provide a freely accessible simulated whole-genome sequence dataset with spatiotemporal metadata for 1,426,749 individuals reflecting intricate French Canadian population structure. Such realistic population-scale simulations provide opportunities to investigate population genetics at an unprecedented resolution

Statistical and functional convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at chromosome 16p

The canonical paradigm for converting genetic association to mechanism involves iteratively mapping individual associations to the proximal genes through which they act. In contrast, in the present study we demonstrate the feasibility of extracting biological insights from a very large region of the genome and leverage this strategy to study the genetic influences on autism. Using a new statistical approach, we identified the 33-Mb p-arm of chromosome 16 (16p) as harboring the greatest excess of autism’s common polygenic influences. The region also includes the mechanistically cryptic and autism-associated 16p11.2 copy number variant. Analysis of RNA-sequencing data revealed that both the common polygenic influences within 16p and the 16p11.2 deletion were associated with decreased average gene expression across 16p. The transcriptional effects of the rare deletion and diffuse common variation were correlated at the level of individual genes and analysis of Hi-C data revealed patterns of chromatin contact that may explain this transcriptional convergence. These results reflect a new approach for extracting biological insight from genetic association data and suggest convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at 16p

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'

Statistical and functional convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at chromosome 16p

The canonical paradigm for converting genetic association to mechanism involves iteratively mapping individual associations to the proximal genes through which they act. In contrast, in the present study we demonstrate the feasibility of extracting biological insights from a very large region of the genome and leverage this strategy to study the genetic influences on autism. Using a new statistical approach, we identified the 33-Mb p-arm of chromosome 16 (16p) as harboring the greatest excess of autism's common polygenic influences. The region also includes the mechanistically cryptic and autism-associated 16p11.2 copy number variant. Analysis of RNA-sequencing data revealed that both the common polygenic influences within 16p and the 16p11.2 deletion were associated with decreased average gene expression across 16p. The transcriptional effects of the rare deletion and diffuse common variation were correlated at the level of individual genes and analysis of Hi-C data revealed patterns of chromatin contact that may explain this transcriptional convergence. These results reflect a new approach for extracting biological insight from genetic association data and suggest convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at 16p

Genetic analyses identify widespread sex-differential participation bias

Genetic association results are often interpreted with the assumption that study participation does not affect downstream analyses. Understanding the genetic basis of participation bias is challenging since it requires the genotypes of unseen individuals. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate comparative biases by performing a genome-wide association study contrasting one subgroup versus another. For example, we showed that sex exhibits artifactual autosomal heritability in the presence of sex-differential participation bias. By performing a genome-wide association study of sex in approximately 3.3 million males and females, we identified over 158 autosomal loci spuriously associated with sex and highlighted complex traits underpinning differences in study participation between the sexes. For example, the body mass index-increasing allele at FTO was observed at higher frequency in males compared to females (odds ratio = 1.02, P = 4.4 × 10-36). Finally, we demonstrated how these biases can potentially lead to incorrect inferences in downstream analyses and propose a conceptual framework for addressing such biases. Our findings highlight a new challenge that genetic studies may face as sample sizes continue to grow