The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting

Background The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. Methods Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. Results Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. Conclusion The SACMC’s models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout

The Sec1/Munc18 protein Vps45 regulates cellular levels of its SNARE binding partners Tlg2 and Snc2 in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Intracellular membrane trafficking pathways must be tightly regulated to ensure proper functioning of all eukaryotic cells. Central to membrane trafficking is the formation of specific SNARE (soluble N-ethylmeleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor) complexes between proteins on opposing lipid bilayers. The Sec1/Munc18 (SM) family of proteins play an essential role in SNARE-mediated membrane fusion, and like the SNAREs are conserved through evolution from yeast to humans. The SM protein Vps45 is required for the formation of yeast endosomal SNARE complexes and is thus essential for traffic through the endosomal system. Here we report that, in addition to its role in regulating SNARE complex assembly, Vps45 regulates cellular levels of its SNARE binding partners: the syntaxin Tlg2 and the v-SNARE Snc2: Cells lacking Vps45 have reduced cellular levels of Tlg2 and Snc2; and elevation of Vps45 levels results in concomitant increases in the levels of both Tlg2 and Snc2. As well as regulating traffic through the endosomal system, the Snc v-SNAREs are also required for exocytosis. Unlike most vps mutants, cells lacking Vps45 display multiple growth phenotypes. Here we report that these can be reversed by selectively restoring Snc2 levels in vps45 mutant cells. Our data indicate that as well as functioning as part of the machinery that controls SNARE complex assembly, Vps45 also plays a key role in determining the levels of its cognate SNARE proteins; another key factor in regulation of membrane traffic

Recognition of cancer warning signs and anticipated time to help-seeking in a population sample of adults in the UK

Background: Not recognising a symptom as suspicious is a common reason given by cancer patients for delayed help-seeking; but inevitably this is retrospective. We therefore investigated associations between recognition of warning signs for breast, colorectal and lung cancer and anticipated time to help-seeking for symptoms of each cancer. Methods: Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted with a population-representative sample (N=6965) of UK adults age greater than or equal to50 years, using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer scale. Anticipated time to help-seeking for persistent cough, rectal bleeding and breast changes was categorised as >2 vs less than or equal to2 weeks. Recognition of persistent cough, unexplained bleeding and unexplained lump as cancer warning signs was assessed (yes/no). Associations between recognition and help-seeking were examined for each symptom controlling for demographics and perceived ease of health-care access. Results: For each symptom, the odds of waiting for >2 weeks were significantly increased in those who did not recognise the related warning sign: breast changes: OR=2.45, 95% CI 1.47–4.08; rectal bleeding: OR=1.77, 1.36–2.30; persistent cough: OR=1.30, 1.17–1.46, independent of demographics and health-care access. Conclusion: Recognition of warning signs was associated with anticipating faster help-seeking for potential symptoms of cancer. Strategies to improve recognition are likely to facilitate earlier diagnosis

Lived Experience of Caregivers of Family-Centered Care in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: “Evocation of Being at Home

Background: In recent decades, family-centered care (FCC) has come to be known, accepted, and reported as the best care strategy for admitted children and their families. However, in spite of the increasing application of this approach, the experiences of the caregivers have not yet been studied. Objectives: The present study aimed at the description and interpretation of the FCC experience in two neonatal intensive care units (NICU) at Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. Methods: This study was conducted through the hermeneutic phenomenological approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 professional and familial caregivers, and their interactions were observed in three work shifts. The interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. After observations, field notes were also written. Finally, the data were analyzed through van Manen’s methodology. Results: One of the essential themes that emerged in this study was the “evocation of being at home” among familial and even professional caregivers. This theme had three subthemes: i.e., “meta-family interaction,” “comprehensive support,” and “reconstruction of a normal family.” Accordingly, FCC eliminated borders between professional and non-professional caregivers and built close relationships among them in the NICU. It also provided for the needs of neonates, their families, and even professional caregivers through perceived and received support. Conclusions: Parents of the neonates admitted to the NICU experience hard moments. They not only play the role of primary caregivers, but they also receive the care. Focusing on the different meanings of this care from the caregivers’ points of view and having managers provide certain requirements can guarantee the establishment of comprehensive care for clients and proper support for the staff in this uni

Small average differences in attenuation corrected images between men and women in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy: a novel normal stress database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The American Society of Nuclear Cardiology and the Society of Nuclear Medicine state that incorporation of attenuation-corrected (AC) images in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) will improve image quality, interpretive certainty, and diagnostic accuracy. However, commonly used software packages for MPS usually include normal stress databases for non-attenuation corrected (NC) images but not for attenuation-corrected (AC) images. The aim of the study was to develop and compare different normal stress databases for MPS in relation to NC vs. AC images, male vs. female gender, and presence vs. absence of obesity. The principal hypothesis was that differences in mean count values between men and women would be smaller with AC than NC images, thereby allowing for construction and use of gender-independent AC stress database.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Normal stress perfusion databases were developed with data from 126 male and 205 female patients with normal MPS. The following comparisons were performed for all patients and separately for normal weight vs. obese patients: men vs. women for AC; men vs. women for NC; AC vs. NC for men; and AC vs. NC for women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When comparing AC for men vs. women, only minor differences in mean count values were observed, and there were no differences for normal weight vs. obese patients. For all other analyses major differences were found, particularly for the inferior wall.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results support the hypothesis that it is possible to use not only gender independent but also weight independent AC stress databases.</p

Unexpected High Digestion Rate of Cooked Starch by the Ct-Maltase-Glucoamylase Small Intestine Mucosal α-Glucosidase Subunit

For starch digestion to glucose, two luminal α-amylases and four gut mucosal α-glucosidase subunits are employed. The aim of this research was to investigate, for the first time, direct digestion capability of individual mucosal α-glucosidases on cooked (gelatinized) starch. Gelatinized normal maize starch was digested with N- and C-terminal subunits of recombinant mammalian maltase-glucoamylase (MGAM) and sucrase-isomaltase (SI) of varying amounts and digestion periods. Without the aid of α-amylase, Ct-MGAM demonstrated an unexpected rapid and high digestion degree near 80%, while other subunits showed 20 to 30% digestion. These findings suggest that Ct-MGAM assists α-amylase in digesting starch molecules and potentially may compensate for developmental or pathological amylase deficiencies

The association between farming activities, precipitation, and the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness in rural municipalities of Quebec, Canada: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increasing livestock density and animal manure spreading, along with climate factors such as heavy rainfall, may increase the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI). In this study we evaluated the association between farming activities, precipitation and AGI.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional telephone survey of randomly selected residents (n = 7006) of 54 rural municipalities in Quebec, Canada, was conducted between April 2007 and April 2008. AGI symptoms and several risk factors were investigated using a phone questionnaire. We calculated the monthly prevalence of AGI, and used multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for several demographic and risk factors, to evaluate the associations between AGI and both intensive farming activities and cumulative weekly precipitation. Cumulative precipitation over each week, from the first to sixth week prior to the onset of AGI, was analyzed to account for both the delayed effect of precipitation on AGI, and the incubation period of causal pathogens. Cumulative precipitation was treated as a four-category variable: high (≥90^thpercentile), moderate (50^thto <90^thpercentile), low (10^thto <50^thpercentile), and very low (<10^thpercentile) precipitation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall monthly prevalence of AGI was 5.6% (95% CI 5.0%-6.1%), peaking in winter and spring, and in children 0-4 years old. Living in a territory with intensive farming was negatively associated with AGI: adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.70 (95% CI 0.51-0.96). Compared to low precipitation periods, high precipitation periods in the fall (September, October, November) increased the risk of AGI three weeks later (OR = 2.20; 95% CI 1.09-4.44) while very low precipitation periods in the summer (June, July, August) increased the risk of AGI four weeks later (OR = 2.19; 95% CI 1.02-4.71). Further analysis supports the role of water source on the risk of AGI.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>AGI poses a significant burden in Quebec rural municipalities with a peak in winter. Intensive farming activities were found to be negatively associated with AGI. However, high and very low precipitation levels were positively associated with the occurrence of AGI, especially during summer and fall. Thus, preventive public health actions during such climate events may be warranted.</p

Melting of polymer blends in single-screw extrusion : an experimental study

Melting is a major step in plasticating single screw extrusion, but most of the existing phenomenological know how was gathered by performing Maddock-type experiments with homopolymers. Given the current widespread industrial use of polymer blends, it is worth determining whether the same mechanisms and mathematical models apply, or whether different sequences develop. This work reports the results of Maddock-type experiments using a PA6/PP blend, both in its immiscible and compatibilized varieties. A melting mechanism combining the features of the classical Tadmor mechanism and of the dispersed melting mechanism, also previously reported in the literature, was observed.The authors are grateful to Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia for supporting this work under grant SFRH/BD/19997/2004 and to DSM, the Netherlands, for supplying PA6

Reexamining age, race, site, and thermometer type as variables affecting temperature measurement in adults – A comparison study

BACKGROUND: As a result of the recent international vigilance regarding disease assessment, accurate measurement of body temperature has become increasingly important. Yet, trusted low-tech, portable mercury glass thermometers are no longer available. Thus, comparing accuracy of mercury-free thermometers with mercury devices is essential. Study purposes were 1) to examine age, race, site as variables affecting temperature measurement in adults, and 2) to compare clinical accuracy of low-tech Galinstan-in-glass device to mercury-in-glass at oral, axillary, groin, and rectal sites in adults. METHODS: Setting 176 bed accredited healthcare facility, rural northwest US Participants Convenience sample (N = 120) of hospitalized persons ≥ 18 years old. Instruments Temperatures (°F) measured at oral, skin (simultaneous), immediately followed by rectal sites with four each mercury-glass (BD) and Galinstan-glass (Geratherm) thermometers; 10 minute dwell times. RESULTS: Participants averaged 61.6 years (SD 17.9), 188 pounds (SD 55.3); 61% female; race: 85% White, 8.3% Native Am., 4.2% Hispanic, 1.7 % Asian, 0.8% Black. For both mercury and Galinstan-glass thermometers, within-subject temperature readings were highest rectally; followed by oral, then skin sites. Galinstan assessments demonstrated rectal sites 0.91°F > oral and ≅ 1.3°F > skin sites. Devices strongly correlated between and across sites. Site difference scores between devices showed greatest variability at skin sites; least at rectal site. 95% confidence intervals of difference scores by site (°F): oral (0.142 – 0.265), axilla (0.167 – 0.339), groin (0.037 – 0.321), and rectal (-0.111 – 0.111). Race correlated with age, temperature readings each site and device. CONCLUSION: Temperature readings varied by age, race. Mercury readings correlated with Galinstan thermometer readings at all sites. Site mean differences between devices were considered clinically insignificant. Still considered the gold standard, mercury-glass thermometers may no longer be available worldwide. Therefore, mercury-free, environmentally safe low-tech Galinstan-in-glass may be an appropriate replacement. This is especially important as we face new, internationally transmitted diseases

Assessing Internet addiction using the parsimonious Internet addiction components model - a preliminary study [forthcoming]

Internet usage has grown exponentially over the last decade. Research indicates that excessive Internet use can lead to symptoms associated with addiction. To date, assessment of potential Internet addiction has varied regarding populations studied and instruments used, making reliable prevalence estimations difficult. To overcome the present problems a preliminary study was conducted testing a parsimonious Internet addiction components model based on Griffiths’ addiction components (2005), including salience, mood modification, tolerance, withdrawal, conflict, and relapse. Two validated measures of Internet addiction were used (Compulsive Internet Use Scale [CIUS], Meerkerk et al., 2009, and Assessment for Internet and Computer Game Addiction Scale [AICA-S], Beutel et al., 2010) in two independent samples (ns = 3,105 and 2,257). The fit of the model was analysed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results indicate that the Internet addiction components model fits the data in both samples well. The two sample/two instrument approach provides converging evidence concerning the degree to which the components model can organize the self-reported behavioural components of Internet addiction. Recommendations for future research include a more detailed assessment of tolerance as addiction component