A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping

Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analysing the potential of social tipping for rapid decarbonization requires considering the inherent complexity of social systems. Here, we identify that existing scientific literature is inclined to a narrative-based account of social tipping, lacks a broad empirical framework and a multi-systems view. We subsequently outline a dynamic systems approach that entails (i) a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms alongside cross-system and cross-scale interactions, and including a socioeconomic and environmental injustice perspective (ii) directed data collection efforts to provide empirical evidence for and monitor social tipping dynamics, (iii) global, integrated, descriptive modelling to project future dynamics and provide ex-ante evidence for interventions. Research on social tipping must be accordingly solidified for climate policy relevance

Agent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy

Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

How to Keep it Adequate: A Validation Protocol for Agent-Based Simulation

Agent-based models are used in a huge diversity of contexts, which complicates the establishment of a shared understanding of model validity and adequate methods for model construction, inference and validation. Starting from the tenet that model validity can only be judged with respect to a well-defined purpose and context, we conceptualise validation as systematically substantiating the premises on which conclusions from simulation analysis for a specific context are built. We revisit the premises of empirical and structural validation and argue that validation should not be understood as an isolated step in the modelling process. Rather, sound conclusions from simulation analysis require context-adequate choices at all steps of simulation analysis. To facilitate communication, we develop a protocol of guiding questions to analyse the modelling context, choose appropriate methods at each step, document the premises involved in a specific simulation analysis, and demonstrate the adequacy of the model for its context

Mitigating losses: how scientific organisations can help address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on early-career researchers.

Scientific collaborations among nations to address common problems and to build international partnerships as part of science diplomacy is a well-established notion. The international flow of people and ideas has played an important role in the advancement of the 'Sciences' and the current pandemic scenario has drawn attention towards the genuine need for a stronger role of science diplomacy, science advice and science communication. In dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, visible interactions across science, policy, science communication to the public and diplomacy worldwide have promptly emerged. These interactions have benefited primarily the disciplines of knowledge that are directly informing the pandemic response, while other scientific fields have been relegated. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on scientists of all disciplines and from all world regions are discussed here, with a focus on early-career researchers (ECRs), as a vulnerable population in the research system. Young academies and ECR-driven organisations could suggest ECR-powered solutions and actions that could have the potential to mitigate these effects on ECRs working on disciplines not related to the pandemic response. In relation with governments and other scientific organisations, they can have an impact on strengthening and creating fairer scientific systems for ECRs at the national, regional, and global level

Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100,000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: a big data approach to demand-side mitigation

As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature

IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups1 , and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term.This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language

Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation:from individual energy choices to demand-side potential

Climate change is one of the major global environmental challenges faced by humanity in the 21st century. Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels stand at almost 37 GtCO2 per year and have grown by an average of 2.4% per year so far this century. Among these, households – directly and indirectly – are responsible for more than 70% of carbon emissions. Hence, decarbonization of the economy requires massive worldwide efforts and a strong involvement of regions, cities, businesses, and individuals in addition to commitments at national levels. In the last few years, the discussions about mitigation strategies stress the importance of demand-side solutions and shifts to transdisciplinary and bottom-up approaches in assisting climate mitigation efforts worldwide. The IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees names ‘behavioural and lifestyle changes’ as a vital climate change mitigation strategy complimentary to technological measures. Yet, despite behavioural change being emphasized as a crucial component of mitigation strategies worldwide, empirical studies on individual energy-related choices and behavioural factors impacting them are scarce. Individual energy behaviour, especially when amplified through social context, shapes energy demand and, consequently, carbon emissions. By changing their behaviours, individuals can play an essential role in the transformation process towards a low-carbon society and global emissions reduction. However, explaining and affecting human behaviour is a difficult task since human nature is complex and heterogeneous. As a result, quantitative tools to assess cumulative household emissions, given the diversity of behaviour and a variety of psychological and social factors influencing it beyond purely economic considerations, are scarce. This dissertation highlights the potential of behavioural changes among heterogeneous households regarding energy use and their role in mitigating climate change. To do so, (a) a comprehensive household survey is designed and conducted to explore how individuals choose to change their energy behaviour and what factors trigger or inhibit these choices; (b) simulation tools are designed and developed to aggregate these insights and quantitatively assess regional and national impacts of individual choices on carbon emissions; and (c) a novel method to upscale individual energy behaviour for climate change mitigation strategies is presented