Copula-based agricultural conditional value-at-risk modelling for geographical diversifications in wheat farming portfolio management

An agricultural producer's crop yield and subsequent farming revenues are affected by many complex factors, including price fluctuations, government policy and climate (e.g., rainfall and temperature) extremes. Geographical diversification is identified as a potential farmer adaptation and decision support tool that could assist producers to reduce unfavourable financial impacts due to variabilities in crop price and yield, associated with climate variations. There has been limited research performed on the effectiveness of this strategy. The paper proposed a new statistical approach to investigate whether the geographical spread of wheat farm portfolios across three climate broad-acre (i.e., rain-fed) zones could potentially reduce financial risks for producers in Australian agro-ecological zones. A suite of popular and statistically robust tools applied in finance based on well-established statistical theories, comprised of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and the joint copula model were employed to evaluate the effectiveness geographical diversification. CVaR is utilised to benchmark the loss (i.e., downside risk), while the copula function is employed to model joint distribution among marginal returns (i.e., profit in each zone). The mean-CVaR optimisations indicate that geographical diversification could be a feasible agricultural risk management approach for wheat farm portfolio managers in achieving their optimised expected returns while controlling the risks (i.e., targeting levels of risk). Further, in this study, the copula-based mean-CVaR model is seen to better simulate extreme losses compared to the conventional multivariate-normal models, which underestimate the minimum risk levels at a given target of expected return. Among the suite of tested copula-based models, the vine copula in this study is found to be a superior in capturing the tail dependencies compared to the other multivariate copula models investigated

Wigner-Seitz cells in neutron star crust with finite range interactions

The structure of Wigner-Seitz cells in the inner crust of neutron stars is investigated using a microcospic Hartree-Fock-BCS approach with finite range D1S and M3Y-P4 interactions. Large effects on the densities are found compared to previous predictions using Skyrme interactions. Pairing effects are found to be small, and they are attenuated by the use of finite range interactions in the mean field.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Survey of Food-hygiene Practices at Home and Childhood Diarrhoea in Hanoi, Viet Nam

A cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the potential factors of food-hygiene practices of mothers on the prevalence of diarrhoea among their children. Mothers who had children aged 6 months–5 years were recruited in a hamlet in Viet Nam. The food-hygiene practices included hand-washing, method of washing utensils, separation of utensils for raw and cooked food, and the location where foods were prepared for cooking. A face-to-face interview was conducted, and data on 206 mothers were analyzed. The risk of diarrhoea was significantly higher among children whose mothers prepared food for cooking somewhere other than the table (typically on the ground) compared to children whose mothers prepared food on the table (adjusted odds ratio=2.85, 95% confidence interval 1.11–7.28). The results indicate that food-hygiene practices of mothers, such as avoiding preparing food for cooking on the ground, has a potential impact in preventing diarrhoea among children in Viet Nam

Optimisation of a nano-positioning stage for a Transverse Dynamic Force Microscope

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.This paper describes the optimisation of a nano-positioning stage for a Transverse Dynamic Force Microscope (TDFM). The nano-precision stage is required to move a specimen dish within a horizontal region of 1 μm × 1 μm and with a resolution of 0.3 nm. The design objective was to maximise positional accuracy during high speed actuation. This was achieved by minimising out-of-plane distortions and vibrations during actuation. Optimal performance was achieved through maximising out-of-plane stiffness through shape and material selection as well optimisation of the anchoring system. Several shape parameters were optimised including the shape of flexural beams and the shape of the dish holder. Physical prototype testing was an essential part of the design process to confirm the accuracy of modelling and also to reveal issues with manufacturing tolerances. An overall resonant frequency of 6 kHz was achieved allowing for a closed loop-control frequency of 1.73 kHz for precise horizontal motion control. This resonance represented a 12-fold increase from the original 500 Hz of a commercially available positioning stage. Experimental maximum out-of-plane distortions below the first resonance frequency were reduced from 0.3 μm for the first prototype to less than 0.05 μm for the final practical prototype

Selective production of volatile fatty acids at different pH in an anaerobic membrane bioreactor

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd This study investigated the production of major volatile fatty acid (VFA) components in an anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) to treat low-strength synthetic wastewater. No selective inhibition was applied for methane production and solvent-extraction method was used for VFA extraction. The results showed acetic and propionic acid were the predominant VFA components at pH 7.0 and 6.0 with concentrations of 1.444 ± 0.051 and 0.516 ± 0.032 mili-mol/l respectively. At pH 12.0 isobutyric acid was the major VFA component with a highest concentration of 0.712 ± 0.008 mili-mol/l. The highest VFA yield was 48.74 ± 1.5 mg VFA/100 mg CODfeed at pH 7.0. At different pH, AnMBR performance was evaluated in terms of COD, nutrient removal and membrane fouling rate. It was observed that the membrane fouled at a faster rate in both acidic and alkaline pH conditions, the slowest rate in membrane fouling was observed at pH 7.0

Real-time sliding mode observer scheme for shear force estimation in a transverse dynamic force microscope

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.This paper describes a sliding mode observer scheme for estimation of the shear force affecting the cantilever in a Transverse Dynamic Force Microscope (TDFM). The vertically oriented cantilever is oscillated in proximity to the specimen under investigation. The amplitude of oscillation of the cantilever tip is affected by these shear forces. They are created by the ordered-water layer above the specimen. The oscillation amplitude is therefore a measure of distance between the tip and the surface of the specimen. Consequently, the estimation of the shear forces provides useful information about the specimen characteristics. For estimating the shear forces, an approximate finite dimensional model of the cantilever is created using the method of lines. This model is subsequently reduced for its model order. An unknown input sliding mode observer has been used to reconstruct the unknown shear forces using only tip position measurements and the cantilever excitation. This paper describes the development of the sliding mode scheme and presents experimental results from the TDFM set up at the Centre for Nanoscience and Quantum Information (NSQI) at Bristol University

Estimation of the shear force in transverse dynamic force microscopy using a sliding mode observer

Open access journalIn this paper, the problem of estimating the shear force affecting the tip of the cantilever in a Transverse Dynamic Force Microscope (TDFM) using a real-time implementable sliding mode observer is addressed. The behaviour of a vertically oriented oscillated cantilever, in close proximity to a specimen surface, facilitates the imaging of the specimen at nano-metre scale. Distance changes between the cantilever tip and the specimen can be inferred from the oscillation amplitudes, but also from the shear force acting at the tip. Thus, the problem of accurately estimating the shear force is of significance when specimen images and mechanical properties need to be obtained at submolecular precision. A low order dynamic model of the cantilever is derived using the method of lines, for the purpose of estimating the shear force. Based on this model, an estimator using sliding mode techniques is presented to reconstruct the unknown shear force, from only tip position measurements and knowledge of the excitation signal applied to the top of the cantilever. Comparisons to methods assuming a quasi-static harmonic balance are made.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Survey of Food-hygiene Practices at Home and Childhood Diarrhoea in Hanoi, Viet Nam

A cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the potential factors of food-hygiene practices of mothers on the prevalence of diarrhoea among their children. Mothers who had children aged 6 months\u20135 years were recruited in a hamlet in Viet Nam. The food-hygiene practices included hand-washing, method of washing utensils, separation of utensils for raw and cooked food, and the location where foods were prepared for cooking. A face-to-face interview was conducted, and data on 206 mothers were analyzed. The risk of diarrhoea was significantly higher among children whose mothers prepared food for cooking somewhere other than the table (typically on the ground) compared to children whose mothers prepared food on the table (adjusted odds ratio=2.85, 95% confidence interval 1.11-7.28). The results indicate that food-hygiene practices of mothers, such as avoiding preparing food for cooking on the ground, has a potential impact in preventing diarrhoea among children in Viet Nam