Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many countries. The methods covered are principal components, targeted predictors, weighted principal components, partial least squares, elastic net and ridge regression. Using these methods, we assess the marginal predictive content of international data for New Zealand GDP growth. We find that exploiting a large number of international predictors can improve forecasts of our target variable, compared to more traditional models based on small datasets. This is in spite of New Zealand survey data capturing a substantial proportion of the predictive information in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and partial least squares performing best. We also assess the type of international data that contains the most predictive information for New Zealand growth over our sample. --Forecasting,factor models,shrinkage methods,principal components,targeted predictors,weighted principal components,partial least squares

Shelter for the sharks

This document takes the form of a newspaper and documents the work that Architecture Studio 3 at The Cass has done to explore the use of a shipping container to provide shelter for a canoeing club “The Sharks” in Hayes, West London. All projects illustrated in the newspaper aim to contribute to communities wider than canoeists and the canal, and to provide sites that can contribute to strategic urban development. The work shows how a shipping container can provide a flexible, low cost, robust and easy transportable module. Students continued working with the canoeing club to develop and deliver a shelter for The Sharks in Hayes. The work of the students and the dissemination to a wider audience has impacted on a housing development by the canal, and lead to the inclusion of a canoe club as a public amenity

How do credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach

We study how credit supply shocks in the US, the euro area and Japan are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently-developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983-2009. We experiment with inter-country links that distinguish bilateral trade, portfolio investment, foreign direct investment and banking exposures, as well as asset-side vs. liability-side financial channels. Capturing both bilateral trade and inward foreign direct investment or outward banking claim exposures in a GVAR fits the data better than using trade weights only. We use sign restrictions on the short-run impulse responses to financial shocks that have the effect of reducing credit supply to the private sector. We find that negative US credit supply shocks have stronger negative effects on domestic and foreign GDP, compared to credit supply shocks from the euro area and Japan. Domestic and foreign credit and equity markets respond clearly to the credit supply shocks. Exchange rate responses are consistent with a flight to quality to the US dollar. The UK, another international financial centre, is also responsive to the shocks. These results are robust to the exclusion of the 2007-09 crisis episode from the sample. --international business cycles,credit supply shocks,trade and financial integration,Global VAR,sign restrictions

Role of Social Networks in the help seeking experiences among Chinese suffering from severe mental illness in England: a qualitative study

© The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The British Association of Social Workers. All rights reserved. This is the accepted manuscript version of an article which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1093/bjsw/bcr199The onset of mental illness can have a significant impact on individuals' lives and on the people who they come into contact with in their social networks. This paper presents the findings of the exploratory stage of a larger study that aims to examine the role of social networks in the help-seeking process of Chinese people suffering from severe mental illness in England. The study used a qualitative phenomenological approach in which in-depth interviews were conducted with three Chinese people suffering from severe mental illness and four network ties who were involved in the help-seeking process. The results of the study showed that family may not be involved in every stage of help-seeking. The size of social networks of Chinese people suffering from mental illness became bigger and the composition of social networks became more diverse after their first contact with mental health services. The implications of the study encourage social workers and mental health professionals to explore resources in the wider social networks to ensure that Chinese people suffering from mental illness receive ad- equate support to meet their mental health needs.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

The use of video role play for teaching therapeutic communication skills

Background: Effective Communication is a fundamental skill for practice across health care settings and is a component ofundergraduate nursing programs around the world. Resource materials appropriate for the teaching of communication in an Asiancontext are lacking.Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of a self-developed video using role play in facilitating teaching andlearning associated with therapeutic communication.Methods: Videos were produced which demonstrated the fundamental communication skills of listening, understanding,exploring and comforting/supporting, using role play. These were shown to Year 1 nursing students in tutorials over four weeks.Their usefulness was evaluated using a self-developed questionnaire. Among 74 questionnaires distributed at the end of thefourth tutorial, 72 were returned, with a 97% response rate.Results: Most students agreed that the video clips provided useful examples for role-playing the communication skills (89%),helped trigger them to perform role-playing (74%), were useful to improve understanding of different communication skills(93%) and helped them learn from other students’ role-playing performance (87%). Overall impression of using the videos in thetutorial teaching was very useful (27%) and useful (68%).Conclusions: Most students valued the videos developed purposely for teaching therapeutic communication and recommendedthat the videos be used in the future. Using video role plays facilitated the teaching and learning process and enhancedundergraduate nursing students’ understanding and application of communication skills. More video clips will be developed inthe future, with improved quality and with a broader range of health care communication scenarios demonstrated in order to beused more widely

Похибка розрахунку характеристик гармонійного сигналу

Встановлено основні джерела похибок програм визначення коефіцієнта гармонік для звичайної та подвійної точності розрахунку. Аналізуються похибки заокруглення, пов’язані із знаходженням тригонометричних функцій стандартними програмами, похибки розрахунку коефіцієнта гармонік гармонійного сигналу, на який накладено постійний складник, похибки розрахунку коефіцієнта гармонік від кількості дискретних відліків на періоді сигналу, похибки квантування по рівню, величина яких залежить від розрядності аналогово-цифрового перетворювача (АЦП). Шляхом моделювання визначено величину порогу чутливості по коефіцієнту гармонік.The basic sources of the errors of software for calculation of the harmonic factor for an ordinary and double accuracy of calculation are established. Errors in rounding, related to the calculation of trigonometric functions by standard programs, errors of calculation of the harmonic factor of a harmonic signal with an imposed permanent constituent, errors of calculation of the harmonic factor from the number of discrete counts on the signal period, errors of quantum by level the value which depends from the value ADC bits are analyzed. The threshold value of sensitivity by a harmonic factor was evaluated by modelling.Рассмотрены основные источники погрешностей программ расчета коэффициента гармоник с обычной и двойной точностью вычислений. Анализируются погрешности округления, связанные с вычислением тригонометрических функций стандартными программами, погрешности расчета коэффициента гармоник гармонического сигнала с постоянной составляющей, погрешности расчета коэффициента гармоник от количества дискретных отсчетов на периоде гармонического сигнала, погрешности квантования по уровню, величина которых зависит от разрядности аналого-цифрового преобразователя (АЦП). Путем моделирования определена величина порога чувствительности по коэффициенту гармоник

Selective Conversion of Glucose to 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural by Using L-Type Zeolites with Different Morphologies

In the present work, the morphology of L-type zeolite (LTL topology) has been modified in order to evaluate the influence of several protonated-form LTL-zeolites with different morphologies on their stability and catalytic performance in the conversion of glucose into 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF). Physico-chemical characterization of the LTL-based catalysts has revealed that the three types of morphologies (needle, short rod and cylinder) are active, providing complete glucose conversion and high 5-HMF yield values. The addition of CaCl2 had a positive influence on the catalytic performance. It was found that morphology influences the textural and acid properties of LTL-zeolites, and hence their catalytic performance. The best catalytic results have been obtained with the NEEDLE-LTL, showing nanoparticles with a length of 4.46 micrometer a width of 0.63 micrometer, which attains a 5-HMF yield of 63%, at 175 ºC after 90 min of reaction, and a glucose conversion of 88%. The reusability study has revealed a progressive decrease in 5-HMF yield after each catalytic cycle. Different regeneration methods have been essayed without recovering the initial catalytic activity. The presence of organic molecules in micropores has been demonstrated by TG analysis, which are diffcult to remove even after a regeneration process at 550 C.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (RTI2018-94918-B-C44), FEDER (European Union) funds and FRGS (203/PKIMIA/6711642)

Lack of the Vitamin D Receptor is Associated with Reduced Epidermal Differentiation and Hair Follicle Growth

The active vitamin D metabolite, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, acting through the vitamin D receptor, regulates the expression of genes in a variety of vitamin D-responsive tissues, including the epidermis. To investigate the role of the vitamin D receptor in mediating epidermal differentiation, we examined the histomorphology and expression of differentiation markers in the epidermis of vitamin D receptor knockout mice generated by gene targeting. The homozygous knockout mouse displayed a phenotype that closely resembles vitamin D-dependent rickets type II in humans, including the development of rickets and alopecia. Hair loss developed by 3mo after birth and gradually led to nearly total hair loss by 8mo. Histologic analysis of the skin of homozygous knockout mice revealed dilation of the hair follicles with the formation of dermal cysts starting at the age of 3wk. These cysts increased in size and number with age. Epidermal differentiation markers, including involucrin, profilaggrin, and loricrin, detected by immunostaining and in situ hybridization, showed decreased expression levels in homozygous knockout mice from birth until 3wk, preceding the morphologic changes observed in the hair follicles. Keratin 10 levels, however, were not reduced. At the ultrastructural level, homozygous knockout mice showed increased numbers of small dense granules in the granular layer with few or no surrounding keratin bundles and a loss of keratohyalin granules. Thus, both the interfollicular epidermis and the hair follicle appear to require the vitamin D receptor for normal differentiation. The temporal abnormalities between the two processes reflect the apparent lack of requirement for the vitamin D receptor during the anagen phase of the first (developmental) hair cycle, but with earlier effects on the terminal differentiation of the interfollicular epidermis

Web-based patient-reported outcome measures for personalized treatment and care (PROMPT-Care) : multicenter pragmatic nonrandomized trial

Background: Despite the acceptability and efficacy of e–patient-reported outcome (ePRO) systems, implementation in routine clinical care remains challenging. Objective: This pragmatic trial implemented the PROMPT-Care (Patient Reported Outcome Measures for Personalized Treatment and Care) web-based system into existing clinical workflows and evaluated its effectiveness among a diverse population of patients with cancer. Methods: Adult patients with solid tumors receiving active treatment or follow-up care in four cancer centers were enrolled. The PROMPT-Care intervention supported patient management through (1) monthly off-site electronic PRO physical symptom and psychosocial well-being assessments, (2) automated electronic clinical alerts notifying the care team of unresolved clinical issues following two consecutive assessments, and (3) tailored online patient self-management resources. Propensity score matching was used to match controls with intervention patients in a 4:1 ratio for patient age, sex, and treatment status. The primary outcome was a reduction in emergency department presentations. Secondary outcomes were time spent on chemotherapy and the number of allied health service referrals. Results: From April 2016 to October 2018, 328 patients from four public hospitals received the intervention. Matched controls (n=1312) comprised the general population of patients with cancer, seen at the participating hospitals during the study period. Emergency department visits were significantly reduced by 33% (P=.02) among patients receiving the intervention compared with patients in the matched controls. No significant associations were found in allied health referrals or time to end of chemotherapy. At baseline, the most common patient reported outcomes (above-threshold) were fatigue (39%), tiredness (38.4%), worry (32.9%), general wellbeing (32.9%), and sleep (24.1%), aligning with the most frequently accessed self-management domain pages of physical well-being (36%) and emotional well-being (23%). The majority of clinical feedback reports were reviewed by nursing staff (729/893, 82%), largely in response to the automated clinical alerts (n=877). Conclusions: Algorithm-supported web-based systems utilizing patient reported outcomes in clinical practice reduced emergency department presentations among a diverse population of patients with cancer. This study also highlighted the importance of (1) automated triggers for reviewing above-threshold results in patient reports, rather than passive manual review of patient records; (2) the instrumental role nurses play in managing alerts; and (3) providing patients with resources to support guided self-management, where appropriate. Together, these factors will inform the integration of web-based PRO systems into future models of routine cancer care