Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Intra-arterial chemoradiation for T3-4 oral cavity cancer: Treatment outcomes in comparison to oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surgery followed by radiotherapy is the standard of care for resectable locally advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We report the treatment outcomes of patients with T3-T4 SCC of the oral cavity treated with chemoradiation, an alternative approach.</p> <p>Patients and methods</p> <p>From a series of 240 patients with stage III-IV carcinoma of the upper aerodigestive tract who were treated consecutively according to the RADPLAT protocol, a subset analysis of 155 patients with T3-T4 SCC (Oral cavity SCC N = 22, oropharynx SCC N = 94 and hypopharynx SCC N = 39), was performed. The goal was to test the hypothesis that oral cavity SCC treated with chemoradiation has similar outcomes to the two comparison sites.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>With a median follow-up of 58 months, local disease control was 69% and the overall survival was 37%. In comparison, local disease control for the oropharynx and hypopharynx groups was 86% and 79% respectively. The overall survival rate for the oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal groups were 41% and 6% respectively</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients with locally advanced oral cavity cancer treated with the chemoradiation protocol RADPLAT have outcomes that are equal or better compared to patients with similar disease involving the oropharynx and hypopharynx</p

Metabolic effects of bezafibrate in mitochondrial disease

Mitochondrial disorders affect 1/5,000 and have no cure. Inducing mitochondrial biogenesis with bezafibrate improves mitochondrial function in animal models, but there are no comparable human studies. We performed an open-label observational experimental medicine study of six patients with mitochondrial myopathy caused by the m.3243A>G MTTL1 mutation. Our primary aim was to determine the effects of bezafibrate on mitochondrial metabolism, whilst providing preliminary evidence of safety and efficacy using biomarkers. The participants received 600-1,200 mg bezafibrate daily for 12 weeks. There were no clinically significant adverse events, and liver function was not affected. We detected a reduction in the number of complex IV-immunodeficient muscle fibres and improved cardiac function. However, this was accompanied by an increase in serum biomarkers of mitochondrial disease, including fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF-21), growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), plus dysregulation of fatty acid and amino acid metabolism. Thus, although potentially beneficial in short term, inducing mitochondrial biogenesis with bezafibrate altered the metabolomic signature of mitochondrial disease, raising concerns about long-term sequelae

Estimation of proteinuria as a predictor of complications of pre-eclampsia: a systematic review

Background Proteinuria is one of the essential criteria for the clinical diagnosis of pre-eclampsia. Increasing levels of proteinuria is considered to be associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. We aim to determine the accuracy with which the amount of proteinuria predicts maternal and fetal complications in women with pre-eclampsia by systematic quantitative review of test accuracy studies. Methods We conducted electronic searches in MEDLINE (1951 to 2007), EMBASE (1980 to 2007), the Cochrane Library (2007) and the MEDION database to identify relevant articles and hand-search of selected specialist journals and reference lists of articles. There were no language restrictions for any of these searches. Two reviewers independently selected those articles in which the accuracy of proteinuria estimate was evaluated to predict maternal and fetal complications of pre-eclampsia. Data were extracted on study characteristics, quality and accuracy to construct 2 × 2 tables with maternal and fetal complications as reference standards. Results Sixteen primary articles with a total of 6749 women met the selection criteria with levels of proteinuria estimated by urine dipstick, 24-hour urine proteinuria or urine protein:creatinine ratio as a predictor of complications of pre-eclampsia. All 10 studies predicting maternal outcomes showed that proteinuria is a poor predictor of maternal complications in women with pre-eclampsia. Seventeen studies used laboratory analysis and eight studies bedside analysis to assess the accuracy of proteinuria in predicting fetal and neonatal complications. Summary likelihood ratios of positive and negative tests for the threshold level of 5 g/24 h were 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.7) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.27, 1) for stillbirths, 1.5 (95% CI 0.94, 2.4) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.39, 1.4) for neonatal deaths and 1.5 (95% 1, 2) and 0.78 (95% 0.64, 0.95) for Neonatal Intensive Care Unit admission. Conclusion Measure of proteinuria is a poor predictor of either maternal or fetal complications in women with pre-eclampsia

Association between 24-Hour Urinary Cadmium and Pulmonary Function among Community-Exposed Men: The VA Normative Aging Study

Background: High levels of cadmium exposure are known to cause emphysema in occupationally exposed workers, but little has been reported to date on the association between chronic environmental cadmium exposure and pulmonary function. Objective: In this study we examined the association between pulmonary function and cadmium body burden in a subcohort of the Normative Aging Study, a community-based study of aging. Methods: We examined 96 men who had cadmium measured in single 24-hr urinary specimens collected in 1994–1995 and who had one to three tests of pulmonary function between 1994 and 2002 (a total of 222 observations). We used mixed-effect models to predict pulmonary function based on individual 24-hr urinary cadmium output, adjusted for age, height, time elapsed from the baseline, and smoking status. We assessed effect modification by smoking status. Results: Among all subjects, a single log-unit increase in baseline urinary cadmium was inversely associated with forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1) percent predicted [β = −7.56%; 95% confidence interval (CI) −13.59% to −1.53%]; forced vital capacity (FVC) percent predicted (β = −2.70%; 95% CI −7.39% to 1.99%), and FEV1/FVC ratio (β = −4.13%; 95% CI −7.61% to −0.66%). In models including an interaction between urinary cadmium and smoking status, there was a graded, statistically significant reduction in FEV1/FVC ratio across smoking status in association with urinary cadmium. Conclusions: This study suggests that chronic cadmium exposure is associated with reduced pulmonary function, and cigarette smoking modifies this association. These results should be interpreted with caution because the sample size is small, and further studies are needed to confirm our findings

Assessment of electrophoresis and electroosmosis in construction materials: effect of enhancing electrolytes and heavy metals contamination

Electrokinetic effects are those that take place by application of an electric field to porous materials, with the zeta potential as the key parameter. Specifically, in the case of contaminated construction materials, the generation of an electroosmotic flux, with the corresponding dragging due to water transport, is a crucial mechanism to succeed in the treatment of decontamination. Therefore, it is of great interest trying to optimize the treatment by the addition of specific electrolytes enhancing the electrokinetic phenomena. Most of the data of zeta potential found in literature for construction materials are based in micro-electrophoresis measurements, which are quite far of the real conditions of application of the remediation treatments. In this paper, electrophoretic and electroosmotic experiments, with monolithic and powdered material respectively, have been carried out for mortar, brick and granite clean and contaminated with Cs, Sr, Co, Cd, Cu and Pb. The electrolytes tested have been distilled water (DW), Na2–EDTA, oxalic acid, acetic acid and citric acid. The zeta potential values have been determined through the two different techniques and the results compared and critically analysed

Desarrollo, subjetividad y transgresiones identitarias en las costas del sur- austral chileno

This work is part of an investigation into the contemporary dynamics of development and modernization in the southern and far southern coastal areas of Chile, specifically the shoreline of the northern part of the Aysen Region. The objective is to propose a theoretical-conceptual reflection to enable ethnographic data to be framed as a problem and interpreted as a function of a political reading which - why not say so? - could transform the world of the southern and far southern coastal zone. The central argument of the text is hypothetical: the dilemmas of development, in the current circumstances of the coasts of the Aysen Region, are susceptible of resolution (at least up to a point) from a conscious, reflexive change of perspective on culture as the word is understood in anthropology. Este trabajo se enmarca en una investigación sobre las dinámicas contemporáneas del desarrollo y la modernización en las costas sur-australes de Chile, específicamente en el litoral norte de la región de Aisén. A partir de un conjunto de datos etnográficos se propone una reflexión teórico-conceptual que permita problematizar e interpretar esos datos en función de una lectura política y, por qué no decirlo, transformadora del mundo costero sur-austral. El argumento central del texto tiene carácter hipotético: las encrucijadas del desarrollo, en las actuales coyunturas de las costas aiseninas, son susceptibles de ser resueltas (al menos hasta cierto punto) a partir de un giro reflexivo y consciente sobre eso que en antropología llamamos cultura

Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability

The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes – a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA)1. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause AA2-7, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice6,7. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to AA remains uncertain7,8. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime AA appears dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase, relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline9,10 is greater (reduced) during periods of negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.J.A.S. was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/J019585/1 and NE/M006123/1. J.A.F. was supported by an NSF/ARCSS grant (1304097) and NASA grant (NNX14AH896). The model simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We thank the NOAA ESRL and Met Office Hadley Centre for provision of observational and reanalysis data sets. We also thank D. Ackerley for helping to diagnose the cause of model crashes, C. Deser for commenting on the manuscript prior to submission, and two anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism

Bonobo personality traits are heritable and associated with vasopressin receptor gene 1a variation

Despite being closely related, bonobos and chimpanzees show remarkable behavioral differences, the proximate origins of which remain unknown. This study examined the link between behavioral variation and variation in the vasopressin 1a receptor gene (Avpr1a) in bonobos. Chimpanzees are polymorphic for a ~360 bp deletion (DupB), which includes a microsatellite (RS3) in the 5′ promoter region of Avpr1a. In chimpanzees, the DupB deletion has been linked to lower sociability, lower social sensitivity, and higher anxiety. Chimpanzees and bonobos differ on these traits, leading some to believe that the absence of the DupB deletion in bonobos may be partly responsible for these differences, and to the prediction that similar associations between Avpr1a genotypes and personality traits should be present in bonobos. We identified bonobo personality dimensions using behavioral measures (Sociability(B), Boldness(B), Openness(B), Activity(B)) and trait ratings (Assertiveness(R), Conscientiousness(R), Openness(R), Agreeableness(R), Attentiveness(R), Extraversion(R)). In the present study we found that all 10 dimensions have nonzero heritabilities, indicating there is a genetic basis to personality, and that bonobos homozygous for shorter RS3 alleles were lower in Attentiveness(R) and higher in Openness(B). These results suggest that variations in Avpr1a genotypes explain both within and between species differences in personality traits of bonobos and chimpanzees