Biosecurity and exotic disease surveillance in the New Zealand pig industry : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Massey University, New Zealand

Chapter 1 removed due to copyright reasons. Published as: Neumann, E. J.(2012). Disease transmission and biosecurity. In J.J. Zimmerman, L.A. Karriker, A. Ramirez, K.J. Schwartz, & G.W. Stevenson (Eds.), Diseases of swine (pp. 141-164). Chichester, England: Wiley-Blackwell.The New Zealand commercial pig industry is modern and highly productive. The industry is free from many of the important infectious diseases present in much of the rest of the world. However, alongside the commercial industry are a large number of non-commercial pig holdings operated with minimal attention to biosecurity. The extent to which the activities in the non-commercial sector might negatively impact the commercial sector was unknown therefore a series of projects was undertaken to explore the likelihood of an exotic disease occurring. A risk assessment was undertaken to determine the likelihood porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus would be introduced into New Zealand through imported fresh pork. The study estimated that at least 4.3 pig herds per year were likely to become infected with PRRS and that 36% of these incursions would spread to additional herds. It was recognized that the data describing the interactions between commercial and non-commercial pigs could be improved so a prospective study was undertaken to collect information about the movements of pigs and genetic material between farms. To assist in development of a national surveillance programme, two additional studies were then initiated. First, a study was conducted to determine the effect of blood sample mishandling on the performance of ELISA assays and second, a retrospective analysis of data from a national abattoir-based lesion recording system (PigCheck) was conducted. These studies were done with the realization that future surveillance activities would need to incorporate creative means of generating high-quality surveillance data, from various surveillance components, using both laboratory- and field-based staff. Investment Logic Mapping was then used to assist the industry in establishing a biosecurity and surveillance strategy. A single strategy ‘improve surveillance’ was identified as the key area for biosecurity investment. In response to this finding, modelling of potential surveillance activities was completed and a surveillance programme was proposed costing approximately $0.50 per pig annually. The work presented in this thesis demonstrates the New Zealand pig industry is susceptible to introduction of an exotic disease and that the population of non-commercial pigs must be considered when developing biosecurity, and disease readiness or response plans for the commercial industry. The described studies show that a cost effective national disease surveillance programme can be implemented through use of a combination of existing and newly developed sources of surveillance information

Arrest First, Ask Questions Later: The Japanese Police Detention System

The Japanese police detention system enables police and prosecutors to detain criminal suspects for up to twenty-three days without a formal charge, thus posing numerous human rights problems. This comment concentrates on the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights which provides a means for identifying the human rights abuses occurring under the Japanese police detention system, as well as a method for rectifying such abuses

The Roughness Properties of Small Ice-Bearing Craters at the South Pole of the Moon: Implications for Accessing Fresh Water Ice in Future Surface Operations

The lunar poles provide a fascinating thermal environment capable of cold-trapping water ice on geologic timescales [1]. While there have been many observations indicating the presence of water ice at the lunar surface [e.g., 24], it is still not clear when this ice was delivered to the Moon. The timing of volatile dep-osition provides important constraints on the origin of lunar ice because different delivery mechanisms have been active at different times throughout lunar history. We previously found that some small (<10 km) cra-ters at the south pole of the Moon have morphologies suggestive of relatively young ages, on the basis of crisp crater rims [5]. These craters are too small to date with robust cratering statistics [5], but the possibility of ice in young craters is intriguing because it suggests that there is some recent and perhaps ongoing mechanism that is delivering or redistributing water to polar cold traps. Therefore, understanding if these small, ice-bear-ing craters are indeed young is essential in understand-ing the age and source of volatiles on the Moon. Here we take a new approach to understand the ages of these small polar cold traps: analyzing the roughness properties of small ice-bearing craters. It is well under-stood that impact crater properties (e.g., morphology, rock abundance, and roughness) evolve with time due to a variety of geologic and space-weathering processes [611]. Topographic roughness is a measurement of the local deviation from the mean topography, providing a measurement of surface texture, and is a powerful tool for evaluating surface evolution over geologic time [e.g., 1114]. In this study we analyze the roughness of southern lunar craters (40S90S) from all geologic eras, and determine how the roughness of small (<10 km) ice-bearing craters compare. We discuss the implications of the ages of ice-bearing south polar craters, and potential strategies for accessing fresh ice on the Moon

Decision Problems for Second-Order Holonomic Recurrences

We study decision problems for sequences which obey a second-order holonomic recurrence of the form f(n + 2) = P(n) f(n + 1) + Q(n) f(n) with rational polynomial coefficients, where P is non-constant, Q is non-zero, and the degree of Q is smaller than or equal to that of P. We show that existence of infinitely many zeroes is decidable. We give partial algorithms for deciding the existence of a zero, positivity of all sequence terms, and positivity of all but finitely many sequence terms. If Q does not have a positive integer zero then our algorithms halt on almost all initial values (f(1), f(2)) for the recurrence. We identify a class of recurrences for which our algorithms halt for all initial values. We further identify a class of recurrences for which our algorithms can be extended to total ones

On Ranking Function Synthesis and Termination for Polynomial Programs

We consider the problem of synthesising polynomial ranking functions for single-path loops over the reals with continuous semi-algebraic update function and compact semi-algebraic guard set. We show that a loop of this form has a polynomial ranking function if and only if it terminates. We further show that termination is decidable for such loops in the special case where the update function is affine

Negative Attribution Bias and Anger After Traumatic Brain Injury

Objectives: Negative attributions pertain to judgments of intent, hostility, and blame regarding others' behaviors. This study compared negative attributions made by people with and without traumatic brain injury (TBI) and examined the degree to which these negative attributions predicted angry ratings in response to situations. Setting: Outpatient rehabilitation hospital. Participants: Forty-six adults with moderate to severe TBI and 49 healthy controls. Design: Cross-sectional study using a quasi-experimental research design. Main Measures: In response to hypothetical scenarios, participants rated how irritated and angry they would be, and how intentional, hostile, and blameworthy they perceived characters' behaviors. There were 3 scenario types differentiated by the portrayal of characters' actions: benign, ambiguous, or hostile. All scenarios theoretically resulted in unpleasant outcomes for participants. Results: Participants with TBI had significantly higher ratings for feeling “irritated” and “angry” and attributions of “intent,” “hostility,” and “blame” compared with healthy controls for all scenario types. Negative attribution ratings accounted for 72.4% and 65.3% of the anger rating variance for participants with and without TBI, respectively. Conclusion: People with TBI may have negative attribution bias, in which they disproportionately judge the intent, hostility, and blameworthiness of others' behaviors. These attributions contributed to their ratings of feeling angry. This suggests that participants with TBI who have anger problems should be evaluated for this bias, and anger treatments should possibly aim to alter negative attributions. However, before implementing clinical practice changes, there is a need for replication with larger samples, and further investigation of the characteristics associated with negative attribution bias

Reductions in Alexithymia and Emotion Dysregulation After Training Emotional Self-Awareness Following Traumatic Brain Injury: A Phase I Trial

OBJECTIVES: To examine the acceptability and initial efficacy of an emotional self-awareness treatment at reducing alexithymia and emotion dysregulation in participants with traumatic brain injury (TBI). SETTING: An outpatient rehabilitation hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Seventeen adults with moderate to severe TBI and alexithymia. Time postinjury ranged 1 to 33 years. DESIGN: Within subject design, with 3 assessment times: baseline, posttest, and 2-month follow-up. INTERVENTION: Eight lessons incorporated psychoeducational information and skill-building exercises teaching emotional vocabulary, labeling, and differentiating self-emotions; interoceptive awareness; and distinguishing emotions from thoughts, actions, and sensations. MEASURES: Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20 (TAS-20); Levels of Emotional Awareness Scale (LEAS); Trait Anxiety Inventory (TAI); Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9); State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI); Difficulty With Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS); and Positive and Negative Affect Scale (PANAS). RESULTS: Thirteen participants completed the treatment. Repeated-measures analysis of variance revealed changes on the TAS-20 (P = .003), LEAS (P < .001), TAI (P = .014), STAXI (P = .015), DERS (P = .020), and positive affect (P < .005). Paired t tests indicated significant baseline to posttest improvements on these measures. Gains were maintained at follow-up for the TAS, LEAS, and positive affect. Treatment satisfaction was high. CONCLUSION: This is the first study published on treating alexithymia post-TBI. Positive changes were identified for emotional self-awareness and emotion regulation; some changes were maintained several months posttreatment. Findings justify advancing to the next investigational phase for this novel intervention

The Relations of Self-Reported Aggression to Alexithymia, Depression, and Anxiety After Traumatic Brain Injury

Objectives: To compare self-reported aggression in people with and without traumatic brain injury (TBI) and examine the relations of aggression to alexithymia (poor emotional insight), depression, and anxiety. Setting: Rehabilitation hospital. Participants: Forty-six adults with moderate to severe TBI who were at least 3 months postinjury; 49 healthy controls (HCs); groups were frequency matched for age and gender. Design: Cross-sectional study using a quasi-experimental design. MainMeasures:Aggression (Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire); alexithymia (Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20); depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9); and trait anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory). Results: Participants with TBI had significantly higher aggression scores than HCs. For participants with TBI, 34.2% of the adjusted variance of aggression was significantly explained by alexithymia, depression, and anxiety; alexithymia accounted for the largest unique portion of the variance in this model (16.2%). Alexithymia, depression, and anxiety explained 46% of the adjusted variance of aggression in HCs; in contrast to participants with TBI, depression was the largest unique contributor to aggression (15.9%). Conclusion: This was the first empirical study showing that poor emotional insight (alexithymia) significantly contributes to aggression after TBI. This relation, and the potential clinical implications it may have for the treatment of aggression, warrants further investigation

Probability of a Clear Line-of-Sight Through the Atmosphere for a Satellite Based Laser Communications System: A Feasibility Study

The NASA Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS) program is considering the possible use of laser communications to transmit data between a satellite and earth. Such a transmission requires a relatively clear line-of-sight between the satellite and a receiving station on earth. This study considers the effect of clouds on laser transmissions from space. To get an indication of the receiving capabilities for a selection of ground receiving stations, the authors made a preliminary evaluation of the monthly mean percentage-of-possible-sunshine statistics. With a network of six stations optimally placed, a satellite passing over the contiguous United States would generally be within range of three or more of the stations. With this choice of receiving stations the preliminary evaluation indicated a high probability of data receipt via laser communications. To test the capability of such a network of ground stations more rigorously and to consider only the planned (morning) hours of ERTS passage, a simulated operation used 5 years of January and July data. A relationship was established between the reported opaque sky cover and the minutes of sunshine recorded in the hour in which the cloud observation was made. The simulations involved a series of hypothetical satellite crossings over the United States. For each crossing, probabilities of clear line-of-sight were calculated from the opaque sky cover observations and the relationship established between opaque sky cover and sunshine