Novel United Kingdom prognostic model for 30-day mortality following transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Objective Existing clinical prediction models (CPM) for short-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have limited applicability in the UK due to moderate predictive performance and inconsistent recording practices across registries. The aim of this study was to derive a UK-TAVI CPM to predict 30-day mortality risk for benchmarking purposes. Methods A two-step modelling strategy was undertaken: first, data from the UK-TAVI Registry between 2009 and 2014 were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression CPM using backwards stepwise regression. Second, model-updating techniques were applied using the 2013–2014 data, thereby leveraging new approaches to include frailty and to ensure the model was reflective of contemporary practice. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping to estimate in-sample optimism-corrected performance. Results Between 2009 and 2014, up to 6339 patients were included across 34 centres in the UK-TAVI Registry (mean age, 81.3; 2927 female (46.2%)). The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.14%. The final UK-TAVI CPM included 15 risk factors, which included two variables associated with frailty. After correction for in-sample optimism, the model was well calibrated, with a calibration intercept of 0.02 (95% CI −0.17 to 0.20) and calibration slope of 0.79 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.03). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, after adjustment for in-sample optimism, was 0.66. Conclusion The UK-TAVI CPM demonstrated strong calibration and moderate discrimination in UK-TAVI patients. This model shows potential for benchmarking, but even the inclusion of frailty did not overcome the need for more wide-ranging data and other outcomes might usefully be explored

Long-Term Outcomes After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in High-Risk Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis The U.K. TAVI (United Kingdom Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Registry

ObjectivesThe objective was to define the characteristics of a real-world patient population treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), regardless of technology or access route, and to evaluate their clinical outcome over the mid to long term.BackgroundAlthough a substantial body of data exists in relation to early clinical outcomes after TAVI, there are few data on outcomes beyond 1 year in any notable number of patients.MethodsThe U.K. TAVI (United Kingdom Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Registry was established to report outcomes of all TAVI procedures performed within the United Kingdom. Data were collected prospectively on 870 patients undergoing 877 TAVI procedures up until December 31, 2009. Mortality tracking was achieved in 100% of patients with mortality status reported as of December 2010.ResultsSurvival at 30 days was 92.9%, and it was 78.6% and 73.7% at 1 year and 2 years, respectively. There was a marked attrition in survival between 30 days and 1 year. In a univariate model, survival was significantly adversely affected by renal dysfunction, the presence of coronary artery disease, and a nontransfemoral approach; whereas left ventricular function (ejection fraction <30%), the presence of moderate/severe aortic regurgitation, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease remained the only independent predictors of mortality in the multivariate model.ConclusionsMidterm to long-term survival after TAVI was encouraging in this high-risk patient population, although a substantial proportion of patients died within the first year

Inadequacy of Existing Clinical Prediction Models for Predicting Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

Background: The performance of emerging transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) clinical prediction models (CPMs) in national TAVI cohorts distinct from those where they have been derived is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the performance of the German Aortic Valve, FRANCE-2, OBSERVANT and American College of Cardiology (ACC) TAVI CPMs compared with the performance of historic cardiac CPMs such as the EuroSCORE and STS-PROM, in a large national TAVI registry. Methods: The calibration and discrimination of each CPM were analyzed in 6676 patients from the UK TAVI registry, as a whole cohort and across several subgroups. Strata included gender, diabetes status, access route, and valve type. Furthermore, the amount of agreement in risk classification between each of the considered CPMs was analyzed at an individual patient level. Results: The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.4%. In the whole cohort, the majority of CPMs over-estimated the risk of 30-day mortality, although the mean ACC score (5.2%) approximately matched the observed mortality rate. The areas under ROC curve were between 0.57 for OBSERVANT and 0.64 for ACC. Risk classification agreement was low across all models, with Fleiss's kappa values between 0.17 and 0.50. Conclusions: Although the FRANCE-2 and ACC models outperformed all other CPMs, the performance of current TAVI-CPMs was low when applied to an independent cohort of TAVI patients. Hence, TAVI specific CPMs need to be derived outside populations previously used for model derivation, either by adapting existing CPMs or developing new risk scores in large national registries

Comparison of flow characteristics and vascular reactivity of radial artery and long saphenous vein grafts [NCT00139399]

BACKGROUND: The morphological and functional differences between arteries and veins may have implications on coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) survival. Although subjective differences have been observed between radial artery (RA) and long saphenous venous (LSV) grafts, these have not been quantified. This study assessed and compared the flow characteristics and in-vivo graft flow responses of RA and LSV aorto-coronary grafts. METHODS: Angiograms from 52 males taken 3.7 ± 1.0 months after CABG surgery were analyzed using adjusted Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) frame count. Graft and target coronary artery dimensions were measured using quantitative coronary angiography. Estimated TIMI velocity (V(E)) and volume flow (F(E)) were then calculated. A further 7 patients underwent in-vivo graft flow responses assessments to adenosine, acetylcholine and isosorbide dinitrate (ISDN) using intravascular Doppler. RESULTS: The V(E )for RA grafts was significantly greater than LSV grafts (P = 0.002), however there was no difference in volume F(E )(P = 0.20). RA grafts showed positive endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilatation, and LSV grafts showed no statistically significant response to adenosine and acetylcholine. There was no difference in flow velocity or volume responses. Seven RA grafts (11%) had compromised patency (4 (6%) ≥ 50% stenosis in the proximal/distal anastomoses, and 3 (5%) diffuse narrowing). Thirty-seven (95%) LSV grafts achieved perfect patency and 2 (5%) were occluded. CONCLUSION: The flow characteristics and flow responses of the RA graft suggest that it is a more physiological conduit than the LSV graft. The clinical relevance of the balance between imperfect patency versus the more physiological vascular function in the RA graft may be revealed by the 5-year angiographic follow-up of this trial

A function-based typology for Earth’s ecosystems

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’(1,2). Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management(3). Ecosystems vary in their biota(4), service provision(5) and relative exposure to risks(6), yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

COVID‐19 Vaccine Response in People with Multiple Sclerosis

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of disease modifying therapies on immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines in people with multiple sclerosis (MS).MethodsFour hundred seventy-three people with MS provided one or more dried blood spot samples. Information about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and vaccine history, medical, and drug history were extracted from questionnaires and medical records. Dried blood spots were eluted and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Antibody titers were partitioned into tertiles with people on no disease modifying therapy as a reference. We calculated the odds ratio of seroconversion (univariate logistic regression) and compared quantitative vaccine response (Kruskal Wallis) following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine according to disease modifying therapy. We used regression modeling to explore the effect of vaccine timing, treatment duration, age, vaccine type, and lymphocyte count on vaccine response.ResultsCompared to no disease modifying therapy, the use of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01–0.06, p [less than] 0.001) and fingolimod (odds ratio = 0.04; 95% CI = 0.01–0.12) were associated with lower seroconversion following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. All other drugs did not differ significantly from the untreated cohort. Both time since last anti-CD20 treatment and total time on treatment were significantly associated with the response to the vaccination. The vaccine type significantly predicted seroconversion, but not in those on anti-CD20 medications. Preliminary data on cellular T-cell immunity showed 40% of seronegative subjects had measurable anti-SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses.InterpretationSome disease modifying therapies convey risk of attenuated serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in people with MS. We provide recommendations for the practical management of this patient group. ANN NEUROL 202

Pulmonary surfactant composition early in development of acute lung injury after cardiopulmonary bypass: prophylactic use of surfactant therapy.

Cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CPB) causes lung injury and at least 2% of adult patients and more children develop the most severe form acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Pulmonary surfactant deficiency contributes to the pathogenesis of ARDS. It has been proposed that surfactant therapy immediately after CPB might arrest progression to ARDS. However, many patients develop only mild lung injury after CPB. Thus early markers are needed to identify those patients at highest risk to guide selection for treatment. The aim of this study was to determine whether changes in surfactant phospholipids occur, and reflect severity of lung injury within the first few hours after bypass. Because of the relatively low incidence of ARDS in adult patients, this study was conducted using young pigs highly susceptible to bypass-induced lung injury. Eight pigs were given 2 hours bypass. Six controls underwent ‘sham’ bypass. At 3 h after bypass pulmonary vascular endothelial permeability was assessed by transcapillary leakage of radiolabelled transferrin. A 4 hour broncho-alveolar lavage (BAL) was used to assess intra-alveolar levels of surfactant, inflammatory cells and oedema protein. Bypass caused falls in arterial oxygenation and lung compliance (P < 0.01), but at this early stage in progression of lung injury BAL surfactant phospholipid and albumin levels were within the control range indicating that the alveolar epithelium had not yet suffered major damage.The main abnormalities were increases in vascular endothelial permeability (P < 0.01), BAL neutrophils (P < 0.01), total protein and sphingomyelin (SM) (P < 0.05). Lung histology showed that the main damage was interstitial oedema located around the bronchioles and their associated vessels. A single instilled dose of surfactant phospholipids in 5 animals caused excess in vivo supplementation and did not reduce the early pathophysiologic changes. Our findings suggest that surfactant phospholipid deficiency does not make a major contribution in the initial stages of lung injury after CPB, and that excessive phospholipid supplementation at this stage can be deleterious